The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Looks like Forever My Girl is going fairly wide because my AMC is getting it.

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I just dont want to hear anybody say that a 280-310M gross would be disappointing. I really dont want to hear that. 

Sub 300 would be pretty disappointing now, there's no way around that. Pre-sales are insane, January and February are gigantic wastelands this year, marketing has been superb...it kind of has to suck to not hit 300 at this point. 

[Eric the Ape]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Breaking In is doing No Good Deed numbers, isn't it?  

[a2k]

19 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I just dont want to hear anybody say that a 280-310M gross would be disappointing. I really dont want to hear that. 

going by the buzz, tracking and enthusiasm would feel 280 odd would be a underwhelming. think it should at least approach im1, thor3, im2 (312-318) range if not more.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

going by the buzz, tracking and enthusiasm would feel 280 odd would be a underwhelming. think it should at least approach im1, thor3, im2 (312-318) range if not more.

 

Im targeting 350M+. Im just saying that a Black Panther movie that grosses 280M DOM would never be a disappointment for me. Its very unlikely to go sub 300M at this point i think, but its not totally out of the question. BO is extremely unpredictable sometimes.

[cmbbox2390]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

http://variety.com/2018/film/news/social-media-buzz-fifty-shades-freed-breaking-in-1202665257/

 

Does anyone know if there’s a site or page where I can find all charts from last to now in one place?

[ZeeSoh]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Sub 300 would be pretty disappointing now, there's no way around that. Pre-sales are insane, January and February are gigantic wastelands this year, marketing has been superb...it kind of has to suck to not hit 300 at this point. 

It will come down to the quality of the movie itself. It's obvious the hype is there and that could lead to good OW but beyond that its the WOM and quality that will carry it. Logan despite its reviews only managed 2.55 legs. BP would need to have SMH OW to hit 300 if it has the same multi. Even Deadpool managed only 2.74x legs. Although both these movies were R rated which could have shortened legs a bit but ultimately the point remains that BP must get good reviews. 

 

Given Marvel's track record and the fact that Coogler is directing gives hope that BP will be good

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, cmbbox2390 said:

Does anyone know if there’s a site or page where I can find all charts from last to now in one place?

For having search in the past and not finding it, also interested.

 

If anyone has the Ispottv TV spendings by movies would also be interesting (an other data we see some top 5 but not everyweek and hard to search)

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

It will come down to the quality of the movie itself. It's obvious the hype is there and that could lead to good OW but beyond that its the WOM and quality that will carry it. Logan despite its reviews only managed 2.55 legs. BP would need to have SMH OW to hit 300 if it has the same multi. Even Deadpool managed only 2.74x legs. Although both these movies were R rated which could have shortened legs a bit but ultimately the point remains that BP must get good reviews. 

 

Given Marvel's track record and the fact that Coogler is directing gives hope that BP will be good

Yeah, you have to factor in that MCU's multi average for non-sequels is fantastic. So again, BP will pretty much need to suck for 300 not to happen, unless pre-sales are wildly misleading and it doesn't open anywhere near TR.

[Barnack]

9 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

It will come down to the quality of the movie itself. It's obvious the hype is there and that could lead to good OW but beyond that its the WOM and quality that will carry it. Logan despite its reviews only managed 2.55 legs. BP would need to have SMH OW to hit 300 if it has the same multi. Even Deadpool managed only 2.74x legs. Although both these movies were R rated which could have shortened legs a bit but ultimately the point remains that BP must get good reviews. 

 

Not sure it necessarily need quality (or if it will be down to that, much), it is a genre that can get away and get fantastic result even with one of the worst blockbuster ever made, Suicide Squad: 2.43x - 325m dbo (not that far from Logan multiplier specially considering the much bigger OW)

 

Like you said even Deadpool managed only 2.74 legs, buzz and OW is pretty much what those movie tend to come down too not any quality, Wonder Woman being pretty much the only recent exception and people will blindly fully expect Black Panther to be good regardless of anything because of the MCU brand track record and will play mostly like if it was even if it is not (people seem to massively already buy ticket even if no one even saw the movie to know if it is any good showing that to be the case).

 

 

Edited January 16, 2018 by Barnack

[TwoMisfits]

MT.com - the discount day effect...

14.6% Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

12.8% Post, The

9.5% Commuter, The

9% Greatest Showman, The

7.1% Star Wars: The Last Jedi

[TwoMisfits]

On 1/9/2018 at 6:16 PM, TwoMisfits said:

1st local (Cinemark) is set...here's the lineup...

 

NEW

Paddington (1)

Proud Mary (added late - 1)

The Commuter (1)

The Post (1)

A - Prince in Exile (1)

 

Returning

Insidious (1)

Darkest Hour (1)

PP3 (1)

Jumanji (1)

The Greatest Showman (1)

TLJ (1 - it stays, at least this week!)

Coco (1 - UPPED from split screen last two weeks)

 

GONE

Every old foreign film, Molly's Game (only lasted 1 week), Ferdinand (loses to Coco, even though Coco has been at my cheapo since before Xmas - this must be a MoviePass seller, which my cheapo does not take...either that, or the families coming are buying more popcorn:), Downsizing 

 

And the other foreign film I thought was coming just gets a Thursday outing for now...weird...

1st local (Cinemark) is up:)...here's the set...

 

NEW

12 Strong (1) (Biggest screen size type)

Den of Thieves (1) (Smallest screen size type - the 60 seater)

Thannaa Serndha Kootam (forever now posted as TSK:) (1)

 

Returning

Paddington (1)

Proud Mary (1)

Commuter (1)

The Post (1)

Insidious (1)

Jumanji (1)

The Greatest Showman (1)

Star Wars (1 - it lives another week:)

Coco (.75)

A - Prince in Exile (.25 - takes Coco's late show)

 

Gone

Darkest Hour, Pitch Perfect 3 (likely to be the big screen loser this week)

 

 

 

Edited January 17, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

On 1/9/2018 at 7:03 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Downsizing, Father Figures, and Wonder are gone.

 

The Commuter: 4 (Average)

Paddington 2: 4 (3rd Smallest)

The Post: 4 (Biggest)

Proud Mary: 4 (Average)

Darkest Hour: 4 (Flat; 2nd Biggest)

The Greatest Showman: 4 (Flat; Average)

Insidious: The Last Key: 4 (Flat; 2nd Smallest)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 4 (Flat; 2 2D/2 3D; Average)

Molly's Game: 4 (Flat; Average)

Pitch Perfect 3: 4 (Flat; Smallest)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 3 (Down 3; 2 2D/1 3D; Average)

All the Money in the World: 2 (Down 2; 4th Smallest)

Ferdinand: 2 (Down 2; 4th Smallest)

 

During the weekend, Paddington has the 2nd biggest auditorium.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

  Hide contents

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

All the Money in the World, Ferdinand, Molly's Game, and Pitch Perfect 3 are gone.

 

12 Strong: 4 (Biggest)

Den of Thieves: 4 (Average and 2nd Smallest)

Forever My Girl: 4 (Average)

 

The Commuter: 4 (Flat; Average)

Darkest Hour: 4 (Flat; Average)

The Greatest Showman: 4 (Flat; Average)

Insidious: The Last Key: 4 (Flat; Average and 2nd Smallest)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 4 (Flat; 2 2D/2 3D; Average)

Paddington 2: 4 (Flat; 3rd Smallest)

The Post: 4 (Flat; 2nd Biggest)

Proud Mary: 4 (Flat; Smallest)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi: 3 (Flat; 2 2D/1 3D; 4th Smallest)

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

Spoiler

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

[filmlover]

12 Strong's embargo is still up and it comes out in less than 48 hours. That sure doesn't seem encouraging.

[aabattery]

27 minutes ago, filmlover said:

12 Strong's embargo is still up and it comes out in less than 48 hours. That sure doesn't seem encouraging.

 

12(%) Strong.

[TalismanRing]

11 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, you have to factor in that MCU's multi average for non-sequels is fantastic. So again, BP will pretty much need to suck for 300 not to happen, unless pre-sales are wildly misleading and it doesn't open anywhere near TR.

The non sequel multis are very good for blockbusters but one also has to take in to account calendar position, that the lighter/fun movies tend to have better multis and that IM and Avengers' 3x multis came at the earlier end of the MCU's run.   There's an even bigger built in fan base with a built in rush factor and BP was already introduced very strongly in CW.  Also what's the rush factor going to be like for the first almost all black cast blockbuster?   Feb and March are pretty open but they don't have summer days or major holiday weeks.   Still a $120m opening and 2.5 legs gets it to $300m

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

The non sequel multis are very good for blockbusters but one also has to take in to account calendar position, that the lighter/fun movies tend to have better multis and that IM and Avengers' 3x multis came at the earlier end of the MCU's run.   There's an even bigger built in fan base with a built in rush factor and BP was already introduced very strongly in CW.  Also what's the rush factor going to be like for the first almost all black cast blockbuster?   Feb and March are pretty open but they don't have summer days or major holiday weeks.   Still a $120m opening and 2.5 legs gets it to $300m

I almost wonder if people are setting themselves up for a repeat of Captain America: Civil War, where there is a (relatively) huge opening weekend, critical acclaim, and strong audience reaction yet not super legs due to a variety of factors, including the people most interested rushing out to see it OW.

 

Now BP might have better legs if there are skeptical people 'holding back' to see what the reviews are.  Then again, CA:CW is a cautionary tale, and one we shouldn't forget.

[KeepItU25071906]

"Den The Thieves" has more higher presales then "12 Strong" on Fandango. Chris Hemsworth powah

[Hades]

46 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

"Den The Thieves" has more higher presales then "12 Strong" on Fandango. Chris Hemsworth powah

Well, we know  why he wants to keep playing Thor for as long as possible. 

[filmlover]

7 hours ago, aabattery said:

 

12(%) Strong.