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Wednesday #s: TLJ 16.9M, Jumanji 7.2M, Greatest Snowman 2.45M

By YM!, in Numbers and Data

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REC Indie Sensation

REC

Posted
Posted

I really don't think the problems with TLJ can be put on fanboys.  Why not start with the more obvious issue?  It's not a very good story or set of characters in the Star Wars universe.  It's not a very good movie.

 

I realize the spin from Disney is to make this about bots and trolls, maybe just maybe a whole bunch of people don't like a bad movie.  Might be the case you know?  They corralled the critics well, perhaps they could predict the movie would be at a minimum controversial, so they did everything they could to procure a high professional critic score.  They hit that out of the park with a 93% on RT.  But the actual moviegoer reviews tell a different reaction.  Maybe some of that is an overreaction to the inflated critic scores, but not all of it can or should be dismissed.  The truth might be somewhere inbetween.

 

I honestly think this movie is going to do about 1.2bn worldwide.  Maybe 600m domestic and the same foreign.  It wouldn't surprise me if they end up with numbers that are only marginally better than RO.  I'm sure it will still make them money and be profitable and all that, but what does this do to other movies they have going forward.  I don't see this as a net positive development for them.

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The Panda Global Phenomenon

The Panda

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Gullible & easy to please Star Wars fanboys are worshipping at the Altar of TLJ.

Composed, well spoken and refined Star Wars fanboys are seing TLJ for what it is : a major failure.

#Choose_Your_Side

The Futurist doesnt like TLJ, 

 

David Ehrlich loves it.

 

#ChooseYourSide

Edited by The Last Panda
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Wrath Box Office Gold

Wrath

Posted
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Gullible & easy to please Star Wars fanboys are worshipping at the Altar of TLJ.

Composed, well spoken and refined Star Wars fanboys are seing TLJ for what it is : a major failure.

#Choose_Your_Side

I haven’t read the whole thread, so, sorry if I’ve missed something, but...

 

What’s wrong with you? 

Edited by Wrath
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FTF Blockbuster

FTF

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Gullible & easy to please Star Wars fanboys are worshipping at the Altar of TLJ.

Composed, well spoken and refined Star Wars fanboys are seing TLJ for what it is : a major failure.

#Choose_Your_Side

 

166.gif

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BK007 Box Office Gold

BK007

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, cannastop said:

I legitimately don't understand how fans can be so angry at a Star Wars movie.

 

If it's a series I like, I'd be grateful for any sequel that comes my way.

 

Are you really sure about that?

 

I'd rather they didn't make unnecessary and shitty sequels to properties I like. Say, Finding Dory or the upcoming Toy Story 4.

 

I loved the Pirates series and then they made At World's End. Nolan's Batman series and then The Dark Knight Rises came out.

 

The latter two, of course weren't unnecessary, but they weren't good and might as well have left it at 2.

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Blaze Heatnix Box Office Gold

Blaze Heatnix

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Oh look, another example of why RT is useless.

 

Jumanji, your rated fresh Family-Movie of the season, sitting at 79% with a 6,2 avg, while The greatest Showman sits at 48% with a 6,0.

This is so wrong...

 

That's weird, how the hell a rotten movie can get a fresh average critic rating, while a certified fresh movie can almost get a rotten average critic rating?

 

The difference between the average critic rating of both movies is just 0,2. lol

 

I guess one film is bad but it's better than expected , while the other is good but disappointing! 

Edited by Blaze Heatnix
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, The Last Panda said:

Still not brave enough.

 

TLJ O/U JL?

 

(Because obviously Disney hasn't finished embezzling the funds and blamed  counted all of the refunds on from the GA that hated this divisive movie yet!)

Once again, I had to fix someone's post. :sadno:

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Barnack Global Phenomenon

Barnack

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

That's weird, how the hell a rotten movie can get a fresh average critic rating, while a certified fresh movie can almost get a rotten average critic rating?

 

The difference between the average critic rating of both movies is just 0,2. lol

 

I guess one film is bad but it's better than expected , while the other is good but disappointing! 

that would be because greatest showman is getting some perfect score from some critics, that make it possible to still have an high average rating while having a lot of under 6/10 reviews.

 

I imagine the other good reviews are more around 7/10 type.

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JonathanLB Box Office Gold

JonathanLB

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, a2knet said:

Using 80% target by New Years (next to next Monday), it needs to be on 560 by New Years Monday to hit 700 dom.

- 17 on Wed and 18.5 on Thu (297.5 cume)

- 70 FSS (367.5 cume)

- 32+30+18+17 = 97 Mon-Thu (465 cume)

- 75 FSS (540 cume)

- 24 New Years Mon using RO's ratio: It did 16 on Mon after a 49.6 FSS. (564 cume)

 

So yeah if it does "only" 70 this FSS (-68.1% drop from 220) then it will need to hit that again in the 3rd FSS to stay on track for 700 using 80:20 split. A 5%+ bump at least in the 3rd FSS would be great.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=roguevforce.htm

New Year's FSS 2006 http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2006&wknd=52&p=.htm

 

Sure, I mean, yeah... good math. Except I have no clue why it would hit only $70M for the weekend when predictions were $88-90M and I've seen nothing to make me believe otherwise. And I don't know why Christmas day would be under upper 30s, and probably $40M. TFA hit almost $50M on Christmas Day, and I don't have any reason to assume a movie that opened 11% under TFA will fall 40% on Christmas from its predecessor as there simply is no reason to believe that at this point. Anything could happen, but we work on predictions based on math and statistics and it's unlikely.

 

I think 90M FSS

$40M Christmas Day

$75M the next three days or more

$95M 4-day weekend

$10M per weekday Tues - Thurs, at least (these will exceed TFA's numbers, as more people are off, and could be higher like 11-12)

Good, strong hold the following weekend with no NYE falling on Sunday so the Sunday-to-Sunday comp will be good, Friday will be strong, and Saturday is always strong, scant 35% decline on the 4th weekend.

 

I have trouble doing any math that leads under $750M. The worst, harshest percentage decline will be this weekend, but it won't make any difference since the entire following week is off for just about everyone and that's when the fun happens. 

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted

Jumanji gonna do 9M at my theatre tonight if not more. Could see 10M but that mifht be hard since there's an issue with the tills our Wednesday Night Popcorn Combo can't Ben punched in for the late Jumanji show so anyone who wants that will have to be punched in for a different movie.

 

If we get it fixed by then tho I could see 10M

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