Wednesday Numbers(27/12/17):TLJ $22m

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, NoLegMan said:

a 2-3% margin of error is pretty damn good. that could result in a lower or higher actual.

 

Beats the hell out of waiting in the dark until 4-5 PM next day for numbers. 

[DAJK]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Walking aroujnd the mall waiting for my Downsizing showing to start, and I overheard a convo a little boy and his mom were having:

 

Boy: "I want to see Star Wars!"

Mom: "But It's 2 and a half hours, so I'm not sure you'll be able to stay awake."

 

That runtime is affecting the box office, folks!

You lost me in your first sentence

[Avatree]

18 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Troll territory? What are you even talking about?

 

I'm saying it would be wise to wait until we get actuals for a completely accurate number. TLJ's actual figure yesterday dropped nearly $600k from the early-morning estimates of $28.3m, so it's possible the same could happen with today's $21.5m early-morning figure.

Rth has legitimate inside numbers. I posted the same thing questioning him when I first joined the forum a few years ago, but it became clear pretty quickly that he knows his stuff. You don't have to believe him but if you stick around on the forum long enough you will realise.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, DAJK said:

You lost me in your first sentence

I'm bracing for the worst but hoping for the best!

 

Oh who am I kidding; this will be trash

[TommyA10]

11 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Domestic and overseas numbers are almost playing the same way.  446 million overseas ( updated ) and 444 million domestic ( if we include the 21.5 million from yesterday ).

 

I guess both will end the same way ( 640-680 million domestic and almost the same overseas or perhaps less ). This is rare for a blockbuster. Usually most of the money come from overseas markets, but Star Wars has always been a domestic moster.

Overseas was much bigger than domestic today, so I’m not sure why you think TLJ will make more domestic (or 50/50 exactly). The weekend was decimated by CE/Christmas. 

Also, it still hasn’t opened in China (whatever it ends up making there).

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Manchester by the Tree said:

Rth has legitimate inside numbers. I posted the same thing questioning him when I first joined the forum a few years ago, but it became clear pretty quickly that he knows his stuff. You don't have to believe him but if you stick around on the forum long enough you will realise.

All I believe hw is saying is that the actual could come in under 21m.

[harry713]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm bracing for the worst but hoping for the best!

 

Oh who am I kidding; this will be trash

I've heard the first hour is great and the last 80 minutes are pure dumpster fire. 

[RandomCat]

1 minute ago, TommyA10 said:

Overseas was much bigger than domestic today, so I’m not sure why you think TLJ will make more domestic (or 50/50 exactly). The weekend was decimated by CE/Christmas. 

Also, it still hasn’t opened in China (whatever it ends up making there).

TFA and RO basically made 50/50. (well, TFA was 45/55, but close enough)

SW looks like it's going to keep that pattern for TLJ too, pretty much just an even 50/50 split with slight variations.

[narniadis]

Gotta love star wars films, always brings out the crazies. 

 

Fantastic number btw, anything over 20m is a solid win 

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, harry713 said:

I've heard the first hour is great and the last 80 minutes are pure dumpster fire. 

That's basically what everyone on here says.

[hw64]

8 minutes ago, Christmas baumer said:

You have no idea who RTH is and how he gets his numbers. So please, stop. It's annoying at this point. 

I'm fully aware that Rth gets his figures through access to comScore's (formerly Rentrak) real-time analytics platform, which most studios/distributors pay for subscriptions to.

 

8 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said:

Not 100% sure why we should wait. unless Rth is massively wrong on the # it's accurate enough to discuss, and make predictions/discuss for the weekend.

I never said you should wait to discuss anything. I don't know why this has caused such a fuss - I only said that there's a slight discrepancy between Rth's $22m and the early-morning estimate of $21.5m, and that there might be a slight discrepancy between actuals and both of these two figures like there was yesterday. Baumer made this into a bigger deal than it needed to be.

[Fancyarcher]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Gotta love star wars films, always brings out the crazies. 

 

Fantastic number btw, anything over 20m is a solid win 

People seemingly need to keep rinsing and repeating the same old arguments against SW. It's basically yawn worthy at this point. 

 

Meanwhile TLJ has had a great Wednesday hold, and I'm a bit curious to see how well it'll hold this weekend. January being barren as usual, should help legs too. 

Edited December 28, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[James]

1 minute ago, Christmas baumer said:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't TFA make a billion internationally? I think SW is doing quite well internationally. It seems to be lacking in some Asian markets but that doesn't cover the other 90% of other markets.

 

Where are u guys getting this idea that SW isnt doing well outside of NA?

SW is doing strong internationally in select markets. I don't think the issue here are the number themselves. 600-700m OS is still damn strong in today's climate. The problem is that probably no SW movie will touch 1B OS again for many many years to come, because SW keeps being strong in those select territories where the prequels too where strong, but fails to impress in emerging markets (most of Asia and Latin America). The reason why there are brands that make 800-1b OS nowadays is exactly those markets.

 

SW is super strong in UK, Australia, Japan, France, Germany (and a few other smaller markets). In fact it is so strong that it makes the fall seem less big. But that doesn't change the fact that these markets have already hit their peak, while the emerging markets are exactly that: still growing.

 

To illustrate my point: Both TFA and RO made almost 50% of their OS gross from those 5 markets. RO made 245m from those markets. DM3 (another big OS franchise) made 240m from those markets, so close enough for a comparison. Still, even though they made almost the same number in those 5 countries, RO ended with 525m OS, while DM3 made 770m. That is a huge 245m difference (difference that is mainly made by Asia and Latin America).   

 

At the rate it is going, TLJ will have an even bigger share from those 5 markets than TFA or RO had which means the initial enthusiasm that made TFA reach 1b OS is wearing off. 

 

I don't think anyone is saying that SW isn't big OS. Just that it relies heavily on a handful of markets to make it's money. Which is not bad short term, but it reduces a lot it's chances of growing in WW grosses as a franchise.

[TommyA10]

4 minutes ago, Sand-omJC said:

TFA and RO basically made 50/50. (well, TFA was 45/55, but close enough)

SW looks like it's going to keep that pattern for TLJ too, pretty much just an even 50/50 split with slight variations.

I know that, but some here are talking about 500-600m overseas which is absurd. TLJ will probably make more OS than domestic (probably 52-55%).

[Agafin]

25 minutes ago, Ginkasa said:

The idea is that the overall worldwide potential for new films will continue to grow as the international markets grow and NA maintains or even potentially shrinks.  Star Wars can continue to do well in NA, but if it fails to gain a foothold internationally and thus, in the future, is making significantly less overall on the worldwide stage compared to other franchises then that domestic success may not be worth it by itself.

Here's where you are wrong though, NA is also growing. And the growth in foreign markets is shared between local movies and Hollywood so it's not like a market growing by a factor of 2 will mean that every movie grosses twice as much. China is a good example of that. Despite the market increasing by large amounts every year, most franchise movies have effectively remained flat lately: CW grossed less than AoU, non-team up SH movies all land somewhere around $100m similar to Ant Man, JL just about matched BvS, same for FF7 and FF8, Transformers dropped etc.

 

Looking at it another way, Titanic was the Top grosser in 1997 with $601m dom and $1242m OS. Despite all the OS growth in the last 20 years, it's OS number has only been beaten once since then while the DOM number has been topped four times (soon five).

[RandomCat]

6 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I never said you should wait to discuss anything. I don't know why this has caused such a fuss - I only said that there's a slight discrepancy between Rth's $22m and the early-morning estimate of $21.5m, and that there might be a slight discrepancy between actuals and both of these two figures like there was yesterday. Baumer made this into a bigger deal than it needed to be.

I think the issue is, no one quite gets why you pointed it out. You said, twice, it'd be wise to wait for actuals. If discussing these #s isn't the unwise thing to do, what do you mean by wise to wait for actuals? It feels...nonsensical, and that's the reason this has blown up.

[Poseidon]

So the bull finally found his horns with a little jump on Wednesday.

But $100m still seems like a stretch. 

  http://deadline.com/2017/12/star-wars-the-last-jedi-highest-grossing-film-2017-jumanji-makes-100-million-1202233172/

Edited December 28, 2017 by Poseidon

[NoLegMan]

will downsize upsize today?

[grey ghost]

24 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Only ? Avatar was also the biggest domestic unadjusted title by a large amount for more than 5 year's.

 

Yes it is the biggest movie of all time pretty much from is OS number alone, but it was also really big domestic.

Yes, give Avatar a normal domestic-overseas ratio and it's in the Avengers/JW range WW (1.5 to 1.6 billion).

 

OS puts Avatar in another stratosphere.

[James]

4 minutes ago, Agafin said:

Here's where you are wrong though, NA is also growing. And the growth in foreign markets is shared between local movies and Hollywood so it's not like a market growing by a factor of 2 will mean that every movie grosses twice as much. China is a good example of that. Despite the market increasing by large amounts every year, most franchise movies have effectively remained flat lately: CW grossed less than AoU, non-team up SH movies all land somewhere around $100m similar to Ant Man, JL just about matched BvS, same for FF7 and FF8, Transformers dropped etc.

 

Looking at it another way, Titanic was the Top grosser in 1997 with $601m dom and $1242m OS. Despite all the OS growth in the last 20 years, it's OS number has only been beaten once since then while the DOM number has been topped four times (soon five).

Not really a good example. Titanic was a freak of nature, same with Avatar. Even more than that, there were way fewer blockbusters in 1997 than today. Nowadays you have a big movie coming out every other weekend so the GA's attention is divided.

And the american market, while having slight ups and downs, is stable around 10-11B for almost 10 years now.