New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[fmpro]

1 hour ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

So the BOM prediction might be spot on for TLJ at $57m over 3-day weekend. Seemed too low this afternoon but looks pretty realistic now if Friday is around $20m. 

 

Still laughing over their Showman prediction though

[MrGlass2]

Jumanji!

 

So Deadline's third estimates are usually accurate? It still seems weird TLJ declined from Thursday...

[EmpireCity]

It's pretty easy to see what is happening at this point, when the family time of the Holiday or weekend hits, families are choosing Jumanji as their pick.  The weekdays are much more favorable to The Last Jedi.  

 

I think the trend continues through Tuesday and then The Last Jedi should move back to first choice.  

[a2k]

Using Deadline's numbers SW8 will be 115+ away from JW after a 72+ 4-day. RO added 91 more after a 66 4-day. Same legs will give SW8 100 more after Monday for 637 dom.

 

On one hand the coming Tue-Thu will be stronger than RO due to delayed holidays, while on the other hand matching RO's legs is itself a form of improvement as it has trended behind RO until now. 635-655 seems likely unless Deadline's 4-day projection is inaccurate.

[DAR]

Eh it is what it is

[Rebeccas]

Jumanji is really fun and is a nice surprise. 

[Ryan Reynolds]

5 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

It's pretty easy to see what is happening at this point, when the family time of the Holiday or weekend hits, families are choosing Jumanji as their pick.  The weekdays are much more favorable to The Last Jedi.  

 

I think the trend continues through Tuesday and then The Last Jedi should move back to first choice.  

why are they choosing Jumanji over Star Wars, both qualify as family films?

[DAJK]

To be fair, I did call Jumanji doing 17M earlier this afternoon, although that was just a shot in the dark prediction based on how busy my shift was

[smokeylarue]

I think Disney has to be disappointed somewhat in TLJ gross (both domestic and worldwide). Worldwide, the franchise did not grow after TFA, and especially disappointing in Asia where huge box officed dollars are available. My totally without evidence guess is that bad WOM also cost the film. A lot of people did not like this movie. This should've been a guaranteed $700M+ domestic, $1.5 billion+ WW film easily, but it won't get there. 

[weresweresweres]

So in friday jumanji had better pta than lj. Why sony didn't expand this movie?!?!?!

[Mojoguy]

Jumanji's run has been fun to watch. The movie serves as both counter-programming to TLJ, and is something else for audiences to see who’ve already seen TLJ.

The perfect movie to release against a 600m+ DOM juggernaut.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Did Rth give us numbers are we just going off Deadline?

[fmpro]

11 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Did Rth give us numbers are we just going off Deadline?

 

Still 3rd update from Deadline

[Maxmoser3]

Jumanji could actually beat Sing’s record! 

[TigerPaw]

We need RTH!

[Arlborn]

Incredible weekend.

[George Parr]

35 minutes ago, smokeylarue said:

I think Disney has to be disappointed somewhat in TLJ gross (both domestic and worldwide). Worldwide, the franchise did not grow after TFA, and especially disappointing in Asia where huge box officed dollars are available. My totally without evidence guess is that bad WOM also cost the film. A lot of people did not like this movie. This should've been a guaranteed $700M+ domestic, $1.5 billion+ WW film easily, but it won't get there. 

TFA put up $1b internationally without China, how exactly was the franchise supposed to grow from that?

 

Yes, technically asia would have allowed for some room to grow (while dropping everywhere else), but that would have depended on people catching on, something that isn't particularly likely when you are dealing with the 7th or 8th entry of very interconnected movies. This isn't like FF, where you can more or less ignore all the other movies and still understand it for the most part. With Star Wars, if you haven't seen the older ones, you miss a ton and not everything is clear.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Sheesh. Is the TLJ Friday number going to be under $19M by the time we get numbers from Disney in the afternoon?

[mikee11]

So they dialed back their prediction to 19.1? 

[JohnnyGossamer]

12 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

So they dialed back their prediction to 19.1? 

Appears so... Didn't realize that until just recently. I was still going off of 19.6 for a bit there as well.