New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[mikee11]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

If MT.com % gap and my local area have been the indicators for Jumanji vs TLJ (and usually neither is all that on point for most movies, but they have seemed to be so far in both of these movies' runs)...I'd expect there to be almost no gap between the 2 movies today...

 

Feel free to tease me about this post tomorrow, b/c I should have a totally wrong call coming:)...you can't have too many in a row without eventually ending up with blown one...

 

 

Jumanji should make more money but it has too many unfair disatvantages, like theater count or premium halls

[IronJimbo]

Tlj 22m

Jumanji 24m

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

Jumanji should make more money but it has too many unfair disatvantages, like theater count or premium halls

I actually wouldn't want to bet which movie will make more today...I think it could go either way (saying this now, and planning on finding out TLJ makes $6M more than Jumanji in 5 hours - it's Murphy's Law:)...

[Sal]

48 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Its rather simple after TFA and RO first two weeks, almost every online indicator for audience reception was more positive then TLJ.

 

 

I know some people Alt right and etc, but Rogue One had a female lead with a Muslim co-star and 2 Asian guys.

 

lol 

Technically the Muslim guy was also Asian (if you're talking about Bodhi).  Also you left out Cassian, whose actor is from Mexico.

[Lordmandeep]

3 minutes ago, Sal said:

Technically the Muslim guy was also Asian (if you're talking about Bodhi).  Also you left out Cassian, whose actor is from Mexico.

 

lol

[The Futurist]

Take a bow for 2017's Box Office Queen :

 

Gal G ...wait

Emm ... no

Dais ... who ?

 

KAREN GILLAN, THAT S WHO !

 

 

[AndyLL]

LOL 

[a2k]

13 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

Take a bow for 2017's Box Office Queen :

 

Gal G ...wait

Emm ... no

Dais ... who ?

 

KAREN GILLAN, THAT S WHO !

 

 

I know you mean it in jest but worth mentioning,

Gal G's titular role in a 400+ run >> Gillan's supporting role in J's potentially 300+ run

[The Futurist]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

I know you mean it in jest but worth mentioning,

Gal G's titular role in a 400+ run >> Gillan's supporting role in J's potentially 300+ run

 

[Porthos]

I swear I'm not trying to hammer home a point here.  Honest!  This was more intellectual curiosity than anything else.

 

I actually went back and looked to see if setting the goal at 100m+ OW adj would make a difference or not for December films.

 

Turns out, not really.

 

I am Legend (2007) squeaks over the 100m adj line at 100.2.

The Fellowship of the Ring (2001) gets an Honorable Mention for a 112 5 day OW, adj. 

And Meet the Fockers (2004), of all things gets a ehhhh 'not really, not gonna count it', with a 101.4 5 day OW, adj.

 

So even if we dial back the line to a ridiculous 100m OW and dare to compare it to a 220m OW, we still just have seven films. Four of them from 2007 or earlier when legs were undeniably better. And three of them having 5 day openers making multiplier comparisons much harder.

 

---

This really shouldn't be unexpected of course.  One of the reasons why TFA's OW and run was so gobsmackingly unexpected is that no film had ever opened up to even a decent fraction of the size in December. Instead of showing disappointment in TLJ perhaps what we should be really doing is appreciating just how fantastic and historic TFA's run really was.

Edited December 31, 2017 by Porthos

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I swear I'm not trying to hammer home a point here.  Honest!  This was more intellectual curiosity than anything else.

 

I actually went back and looked to see if setting the goal at 100m+ OW adj would make a difference or not for December films.

 

Turns out, not really.

 

I am Legend (2007) squeaks over the 100m adj line at 100.2.

The Fellowship of the Ring (2001) gets an Honorable Mention for a 112 5 day OW, adj. 

And Meet the Fockers (2004), of all things gets a ehhhh 'not really, not gonna count it', with a 101.4 5 day OW, adj.

 

So even if we dial back the line to a ridiculous 100m OW and dare to compare it to a 200m OW, we still just have seven films. Four of them from 2007 or earlier when legs were undeniably better. And three of them having 5 day openers making multiplier comparisons much harder.

 

---

This really shouldn't be unexpected of course.  One of the reasons why TFA's OW and run was so gobsmackingly unexpected is that no film had ever opened up to even a decent fraction of the size in December. Instead of showing disappointment in TLJ perhaps what we should be really doing is appreciating just how fantastic and historic TFA's run really was.

 

We can multi-task. TFA’s run was incredible and TLJ’s is not. 

[The Futurist]

So Force Awakens will be the most succesful film of the 2010's, both dom & WW.

[NoLegMan]

Just now, The Futurist said:

So Force Awakens will be the most succesful film of the 2010's, both dom & WW.

unless something unexpected occurs.

[straggler]

I have a theory why TLJ is disappointing. It is because TFA was not that good a film, and that once you take away Hans Solo and the nostalgia it did not leave much to work with. Jedi Mary Sue. Emo Ren. Snork or something. There, I said it.

[Rebeccas]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

AOU and TLJ have nice parallels:

- Sequels following a predecessor with record breaking ows.

- Both put in the 2nd biggest ows (AOU also before JW released)

- Drop in legs is similar. AOU's 2.4x is 20% down from 3x+ of TA. TLJ will be down around that (even if a bit more).

- 25-30% drop in dom.

- Reception 'controversy' despite scientific polls saying other-wise. Though MCU's base was not despondent this loudly. Probably cause AOU retained the director and IMO seemed too safe (which to hardcore fans may not be a big offense). Haven't seen TLJ but seems to have the opposite complaint.

 

Just like AIW's anticipation SW9's buzz will also be at fever pitch.

Marvel fans did bully Joss off Twitter so... SW gotta catch up! 

[RandomCat]

1 minute ago, straggler said:

I have a theory why TLJ is disappointing. It is because TFA was not that good a film, and that once you take away Hans Solo and the nostalgia it did not leave much to work with. Jedi Mary Sue. Emo Ren. Snork or something. There, I said it.

*Mrey Sue

[Ryan Reynolds]

Jumanji probably be #1 today

[Fancyarcher]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I swear I'm not trying to hammer home a point here.  Honest!  This was more intellectual curiosity than anything else.

 

I actually went back and looked to see if setting the goal at 100m+ OW adj would make a difference or not for December films.

 

Turns out, not really.

 

I am Legend (2007) squeaks over the 100m adj line at 100.2.

The Fellowship of the Ring (2001) gets an Honorable Mention for a 112 5 day OW, adj. 

And Meet the Fockers (2004), of all things gets a ehhhh 'not really, not gonna count it', with a 101.4 5 day OW, adj.

 

So even if we dial back the line to a ridiculous 100m OW and dare to compare it to a 220m OW, we still just have seven films. Four of them from 2007 or earlier when legs were undeniably better. And three of them having 5 day openers making multiplier comparisons much harder.

 

---

This really shouldn't be unexpected of course.  One of the reasons why TFA's OW and run was so gobsmackingly unexpected is that no film had ever opened up to even a decent fraction of the size in December. Instead of showing disappointment in TLJ perhaps what we should be really doing is appreciating just how fantastic and historic TFA's run really was.

If anything TLJ's run really makes me appreciate / remember just how amazing TFA's box office was. That broke so many records. I still remember when some people were questioning if TFA would open to over 200m, due to how Christmas box office seem to usually act. Blew past those all expectations and then some. Astonishing really! 

[Mojoguy]

TLJ is going lose 1/3 of its DOM aduience.

OS looking to be much bigger lost.

[TigerPaw]

 

54 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

Jumanji should make more money but it has too many unfair disatvantages, like theater count or premium halls

Just shows how impressive it will be if Jumanji takes the win on Saturday, with so many disadvantages.

In many Asian markets, where nostagia and Disney's monopoly isn't that strong, Jumanji looks to beat TLJ's totals. (Not just Jumanji's 1st weekend beating TLJ's 2nd weekend).

Note that TLJ's IMAX and premium formats are still huge advantages. For example, in Hong Kong, Jumanji needs around 30-50% more attendance to beat TLJ.