New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[Fancyarcher]

2 hours ago, Sal said:

Perplexed at that estimated Coco Sunday drop.  It doesn't seem to make sense at all.

 

Though anectodal, I'm really thinking that Disney really should have worked a bit harder to advertise this because a lot of people I've spoken to barely know it's out right now and normally Pixar movies have a stronger word of mouth in the fantasy/sci-fi crowd I usually deal with.  Everyone we've taken to it enjoyed it a lot, but most of the people I know have reached the point where the showings are so hard to get to now that they're just waiting for the streaming/blu ray release.

 

I will say it's hard to dismiss the possibility that the current political climate is also having a slight negative effect on it.  People seem to have little problem going onto Disney's Vevo and other youtube accounts to talk about how this movie should be banned in America for having Mexican characters and that's the sort of dialogue I don't think I've ever seen for other Pixar/Disney films.  

I think the Mexican aspect had little to do with its drops though. The competition from Jumanji and other films is more affecting it then anything. That and losing more theaters then Moana around the same time isn't helping either. 

[a2k]

TGS has the best bump. Surely it's the wom. 100m is on.

4

4

The Greatest Showman

Fox

$15,270,000

+73.4%

3,316

+310

$4,605

$48,785,986

$84

2

Spoiler

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$52,446,000	-26.7%	4,232	-	$12,393	$517,144,228	-	3
2	2	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony	$50,570,000	+38.9%	3,765	-	$13,432	$169,825,967	$90	2
3	3	Pitch Perfect 3	Uni.	$17,780,000	-10.8%	3,468	+21	$5,127	$64,268,470	$45	2
4	4	The Greatest Showman	Fox	$15,270,000	+73.4%	3,316	+310	$4,605	$48,785,986	$84	2
5	5	Ferdinand	Fox	$11,650,000	+59.2%	3,337	-293	$3,491	$53,810,105	$111	3
6	6	Coco	BV	$6,572,000	+22.1%	2,104	-7	$3,124	$178,944,459	-	6
7	N	All the Money in the World	TriS	$5,450,000	-	2,074	-	$2,628	$12,610,000	-	1
8	8	Darkest Hour	Focus	$5,280,000	+35.7%	943	+137	$5,599	$17,926,287	-	6
9	7	Downsizing	Par.	$4,600,000	-7.2%	2,664	-4	$1,727	$17,058,365	$68	2
10	9	Father Figures	WB	$3,705,000	+13.0%	2,902	-	$1,277	$12,740,000	-	2
11	10	The Shape of Water	FoxS	$3,490,000	+16.3%	756	+30	$4,616	$15,630,155	-	5
12	11	Wonder	LGF	$3,250,000	+63.6%	1,193	+63	$2,724	$121,558,865	-	7
13	N	Molly's Game	STX	$2,330,000	-	271	-	$8,598	$5,227,552	-	1
14	15	Lady Bird	A24	$1,426,164	+42.8%	392	-10	$3,638	$31,392,177	-	9
15	14	Justice League	WB	$1,265,000	+19.3%	1,101	-	$1,149	$225,627,455	-	7
16	18	Thor: Ragnarok	BV	$1,000,000	+19.9%	540	-161	$1,852	$311,370,239	$180	9
17	17	The Disaster Artist	A24	$951,982	+7.6%	507	-10	$1,878	$17,880,334	-	5
18	16	Daddy's Home 2	Par.	$935,000	+0.4%	770	-303	$1,214	$101,804,807	$69	8
19	19	Call Me by Your Name	SPC	$702,098	-5.7%	115	+1	$6,105	$4,610,862	-	6
20	21	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	FoxS	$665,000	+26.5%	266	-41	$2,500	$24,154,084	-	8
21	23	I, Tonya	Neon	$661,603	+60.1%	49	+7	$13,502	$2,402,388	-	4
22	22	Murder on the Orient Express (2017)	Fox	$625,000	+20.3%	391	-56	$1,598	$100,628,049	$55	8
23	20	The Post	Fox	$539,440	+2.6%	9	-	$59,938	$1,738,481	$50	2
24	13	The Star	Sony	$517,000	-60.2%	661	-445	$782	$40,144,925	$20	7
25	N	Phantom Thread	Focus	$220,000	-	4	-	$55,000	$531,345	-	1

 

[That One Girl]

Just now, a2knet said:

TGS has the best bump

 

Not just of this weekend, best second weekend bump for a film that played in over 3000 theaters and best second weekend bump for a film in over 2000 theaters that didn't have only a one or two day opening weekend.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

Not just of this weekend, best second weekend bump for a film that played in over 3000 theaters

 

Jumanji is #4 on this list as well

 

1	The Greatest Showman	$8,805,843	73.4%	$15,270,000	3,316	$48,785,986	12/20/17
2	Cheaper by the Dozen 2	$9,309,387	55.6%	$14,486,519	3,211	$82,571,173	12/21/05
3	We Bought a Zoo	$9,360,434	41.4%	$13,238,241	3,163	$75,624,550	12/23/11
4	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	$36,400,000	38.9%	$50,570,000	3,765	$169,825,967	12/20/17

[JonathanLB]

7 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

As if we don't already get enough lmfao

I’m not saying we don’t... I just don’t know if theaters will agree if they have a 2-3 week lull in the action. Flexible scheduling helps I guess. Studios are spreading out their releases a lot more which also has to help but I notice IMAX theaters sit nearly empty except when Star Wars and Marvel comes around. They try with stuff like Beauty and LEGO Batman but nobody shows up. I went to both opening weekend and there was 1 other person there and 2 other people. That’s it. People will pay $20 for SW or Marvel but not for other big movies even. IMAX needs HUGE movies to fill those theaters.

[mikee11]

Arithmetic mean of The Last Jedi imdb votes is 7.3 yet the displayed score is 7.6.

Arithmetic mean of Frozen is 7.7 yet the displayed score is 7.5

 

HMMMMMMM

Edited December 31, 2017 by mikee11

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, mikee11 said:

Arithmetic mean of The Last Jedi imdb votes is 7.3 yet the displayed score is 7.6.

Arithmetic mean of Frozen is 7.7 yet the displayed score is 7.5

 

HMMMMMMM

 

Nobody gives a shit.

[mikee11]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Nobody gives a shit.

salty mad because even imdb score proves mixed WOM, the displayed score is just rigged

[That One Girl]

Just now, mikee11 said:

salty mad because even imdb score proves mixed WOM, the displayed score is just rigged

 

I repeat:

 

Nobody.  Gives.  A.  Shit.

[DAR]

16 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Bright is an awful movie no matter where you watch it

TOG started the year stanning for Monster Trucks, but he finishes the year strong on this take

[mikee11]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

I repeat:

 

Nobody.  Gives.  A.  Shit.

Respond one more time and prove you really mean it

[That One Girl]

Just now, mikee11 said:

Respond one more time and prove you really mean it

 

NOBODY.  GIVES.  A.  SHIT.

[NCsoft]

3 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

salty mad because even imdb score proves mixed WOM, the displayed score is just rigged

That displayed score isn't looking pretty either, it'll drop to 7.1 or something in a year or so.

[La Binoche]

19 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Bright is an awful movie no matter where you watch it

So it's your typical Will Smith movie? 

[a2k]

PP3's run has had me in sixes and sevens. Hope it makes to 100m.

 

2017/12/22	3	$10,625,150		3,447	$3,082	$10,625,150	1
2017/12/23	-	$6,670,245	-37%	3,447	$1,935	$17,295,395	2
2017/12/24	-	$2,633,130	-61%	3,447	$764	$19,928,525	3
2017/12/25	-	$6,496,365	+147%	3,447	$1,885	$26,424,890	4
2017/12/26	-	$7,445,505	+15%	3,447	$2,160	$33,870,395	5
2017/12/27	-	$6,450,190	-13%	3,447	$1,871	$40,320,585	6
2017/12/28	-	$6,169,885	-4%	3,447	$1,790	$46,490,470	7
2017/12/29	3	$6,642,000	+8%	3,468	$1,915	$53,132,470	8
2017/12/30	-	$6,628,000	n/c	3,468	$1,911	$59,760,470	9
2017/12/31	-	$4,508,000	-32%	3,468	$1,300	$64,268,470	10

 

Even giving it a massive drop next weekend, ~90m dom should happen.

(MTWT: Mon+Tue+Wed+Thu; MTWTFSS: Whole Week; Total by Sunday: ~64.25)

 

Mon: 3.75 [68] // 1st Jan

Tue: 2 [70]

Wed: 1 [71]

Thu: 1 [72]

FSS: 5 [77] [72% FSS drop!]

MTWT: 3 [80]

FSS: 2.5 [82.5]

MTWT: 1.5 [84]

FSS: 1.5 [85.5]

MTWTFSS: 2 [87.5]

MTWTFSS: 1 [88.5]

MTWTFSS: 0.5 [89]

Rest+$-Bump: ~1 [90]

(there is somewhere a 4-day MLK weekend in there which I have ignored because I am so thorough)

 

[AndyLL]

1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

Yeah, people aren't rushing to watch TLJ again. 

 

1 hour ago, estebanJ said:

Maybe, but apparently a whale of a lot of them are seeing it once. 

 

And that is why TLJ is 'only' going to have around a 3 multiplier.   Unlike TFA a decent amount of those 1st WE viewers decided to see something else instead of a 2nd viewing.

 

But lets remove some of the hyperbole.

 

People not seeing a movie more than once in the theater does not mean there is  toxic... or even mixed... WOM.

 

A movie doing over 300 million in the 2 weeks after OW does not have mixed WOM.

 

A movie that will end with around 650M DOM does not have mixed WOM.

 

TLJ turned out not to be an 'event' movie like TFA and there is no doubt it is divisive with some hard core fans.

.

TLJ is going to drop from TFA about the same amount as AOTC did from TPM.  The big OW got a lot of us excited that TLJ was going to buck the trend.  But it didn't happen.

 

Disney is not panicked... there is not going to be any changes to their plans because of TLJ... and SW fans will be back to watch IX on OW in 2 years

 

 

 

 

[AJG]

23 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Bright is an awful movie no matter where you watch it

 

You LOVE Bright. Stop lying.

[JonathanLB]

If TLJ wasn’t an event movie than I guess nothing really is. It wasn’t a once-in-generation phenomenon like TFA, Avatar, or Titanic but everyone already knew that. No surprise there. Over $500M is an event movie haha for sure! $200M+ OW is an event movie.

[JB33]

We're all just not going to see eye to eye on TLJ's box office so I'm going to try not to discuss it anymore beyond my general comments on the daily numbers.

 

I said it in another thread: I think now I'm just anxious to get 2018 started. I'm actually going to see INSIDIOUS: THE LAST KEY next Friday. Yeah, that's how I'm going to ring in the new year of movies: by going to see 2018's first wide release.

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

If TLJ wasn’t an event movie than I guess nothing really is. It wasn’t a once-in-generation phenomenon like TFA, Avatar, or Titanic but everyone already knew that. No surprise there. Over $500M is an event movie haha for sure! $200M+ OW is an event movie.

Hmm, you mean they now know that.