New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

Movie X: Makes 400m to 440m after its OW

Movie Y: Makes 375m after its OW

 

Yes, clearly one run is worse than the other. 

And before the TFA comparisons start, I responded to a post comparing TLJ and R1.  Hence my counterpoint.

[KC7]

34 minutes ago, slambros said:

I believe that there is a muted interest in The Greatest Showman. That 73 percent increase is pretty telling to me. I just don't think there is enough interest in it. Jumanji beating the bologna out of both Pitch Perfect 3 and The Greatest Showman seems to mean that there might actually be more people paying attention to Rotten Tomatoes scores than we may have thought. Hopefully The Greatest Showman can stay in the game, but I doubt it.

 

Sorry--I'm a little confused by this comment. It increased more than any other film in the top 30 this weekend, which would seem to indicate strong interest and WOM. If a 73 percent increase doesn't indicate strong interest, what percentage would?

Edited December 31, 2017 by KC7

[Rebeccas]

I mean honestly Mark Hamill has talked about disagreeing with RJ’s vision for Luke so many times over the last year, I don’t know why he’s surprised people ran with it. It’d be one thing if he just said it once and then expressed regret for airing it publicly but he’s brought it up himself in almost every interview since SW celebration. Of course people who didn’t like what was done to Luke in TLJ are going to jump all over it lmao

[Cmasterclay]

2 hours ago, JB33 said:

Nobody is saying the total for TLJ is a disappointment, or the drop from TFA. Jesus Christ. It's the drops and jumps after a $220M OW. Don't act like this was going to be the case all along. The audience showed up in huge numbers on its opening weekend and the numbers since show that a lot of people weren't happy.

 

We can all meet in the middle of this discussion. The final numbers for this will be outstanding, obviously, but the legs will be disappointing given its opening weekend and the fact it occupied the plum holiday slot. Let's not just conveniently ignore all that.

This is a good point. That said, I predicted 220/700 before release, and 220/700 after opening weekend. Not trying to toot my own horn, but I always expected legs to be like this. They're only slightly worse than I expected, so I guess I just have a different perspective.

The difference between this and Ultron is that this seems to be failing everyone's post opening weekend expectations because people projected the legs wrong. Ultron failed most people's pre release expectation. A ton of people expected TLJ to do between 650-750, so right in the range, but it was after opening weekend people bumped that up. People were expecting 230/600 for Ultron in the week leading up to its release. That's the difference to me.

Edited December 31, 2017 by Cmasterclay

[Porthos]

Just now, mikee11 said:

No one is twisting Mark Hammil's words though, he looks depressed and is snarky at interviews.

Yes, someone who is jetlagged and on his umpteenth interview should be judged on body language.

 

But, hey, want to call him a liar do it (and, yes, that's exactly what you're doing).  But at least be honest about it.

 

NB:  Won't even bring up all the times he's praised to the heavens TLJ and Rian Johnson, as I realize it won't do the least bit of good.  Life's too short and all that.

[bamajagala]

Disney's stock was the 25th ranked member of the DOW in 2017, up 3.2%, while the market was up 20%.  Their revenue breakdown in the latest quarter: Media networks: 5.47b, parks and resorts: 4.67b, studio entertainment 1.43b, consumer products and interactive media: 1.22b. So studio is 11% of total revenue for latest quarter.

 

As mentioned by another poster, their stock underperformance the last couple years has been driven by cord cutting with a particular focus on ESPN.

 

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Movie X: Makes 400m to 440m after its OW

Movie Y: Makes 375m after its OW

 

Yes, clearly one run is worse than the other. 

Movie X opened 65m higher than Movie Y. You're really telling me it should only finish with 25-65m more for the rest of its run? Don't you realize how much worse the holds have to be for that? 

[hw64]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Movie X: Makes 400m to 440m after its OW

Movie Y: Makes 375m after its OW

 

Yes, clearly one run is worse than the other. 

There you go again, stripping all context from the box office runs of two different films in an attempt to downplay the disappointment of The Last Jedi.

 

Did you know that Batman v Superman is a bigger success story than Deadpool?

Edited December 31, 2017 by hw64

[Lordmandeep]

Netflix’s ‘Bright’ Draws 11M U.S. Viewers In First Three Days

http://deadline.com/2017/12/bright-ratings-will-smith-netflix-nielsen-1202233332/

 

I think the point is that Bright has brought a lot of attention to Netflix Movies, meaning if they start churning out mid-size hits like this, they will become an even more desirable streaming entity.

 

This is a big threat to theatres as a mid-size film I predict will have a hard time at the BO in the future.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Movie X opened 65m higher than Movie Y. You're really telling me it should only finish with 25-65m more for the rest of its run? Don't you realize how much worse the holds have to be for that? 

 

See, when Movie X has already completely outgrossed Movie Y after only 2 1/2 weeks, Movie X's performance is actually...wow, it could be good!

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

There you go again, stripping all context from the box office runs of two different films in an attempt to downplay the disappointment of The Last Jedi.

 

Did you know that Batman v Superman is a bigger success story than Deadpool?

I personally think I am ADDING context since people are, IMO, WAY too focused on holiday multipliers.

 

But, no, if asked, I personally think R1 and TLJ are having approximately EQUIVALENT runs.

 

What I was contesting that one was measurably worse than the other.  No more, no less.

[SLAM!]

5 minutes ago, KC7 said:

Sorry--I'm a little confused by this comment. It increased more than any other film in the top 30 this weekend, which would seem to indicate strong interest and WOM. If a 73 percent increase doesn't indicate strong interest, what percentage would?

 

By muted interest, I meant that the silent majority is at least interested in it. That increase is pretty great too. But I'm not sure if it can hold on. Or rather, I'm not sure if it can counteract its $84 million budget. I've only been following the box office for a couple years now, so I'll be paying special attention to the affect a holiday release and poor Janurary competition has on a film like The Greatest Showman.

 

So what I'm saying is, we'll probably have to wait and see.

[SLAM!]

3 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Netflix’s ‘Bright’ Draws 11M U.S. Viewers In First Three Days

http://deadline.com/2017/12/bright-ratings-will-smith-netflix-nielsen-1202233332/

 

I think the point is that Bright has brought a lot of attention to Netflix Movies, meaning if they start churning out mid-size hits like this, they will become an even more desirable streaming entity.

 

This is a big threat to theatres as a mid-size film I predict will have a hard time at the BO in the future.

 

Well, Bright certainly got more viewers than it even deserves. I have a bad feeling about this.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Movie X opened 65m higher than Movie Y. You're really telling me it should only finish with 25-65m more for the rest of its run? Don't you realize how much worse the holds have to be for that? 

I said this yesterday.  I intimated this just now. I will repeat for the umpteenth time:

 

Looking at the multiplier of a 155 OW movie and the one of a 220 OW movie and then saying that if they're not the same one is worse than the other is... Well I'd like to use stronger language instead I'll simply say "I do not agree"

 

As it is, I honestly think Rogue One and The Last Jedi are having approximately equivilent runs.  Maybe one is fractionally better or worse than the other.  But not enough to waste millions of electrons blasting on a computer screen trying to figure out which one is which.

What I WILL waste millions of electrons splatting on computer screens is the notion that TLJ's run is measurable worse than R1's.  To me the 220 v 155 Opening Weekends make enough of a difference to matter.

[junkshop36]

Doesn’t prove anything either way, just thought it was kind of funny and sad on this one persons part

 

 

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, slambros said:

 

Well, Bright certainly got more viewers than it even deserves. I have a bad feeling about this.

 

 

I know the Hollywood types on here dismiss Bright as a trashy film and streaming as overrated, but the point is a film of that nature got a crapload of viewers from a single streaming service in 3 days in one country...

 

I am sure over the holidays it is a lot more viewers, but my point is if they churn out films like this, Netflix's movie releases on Fridays will become like actual movie releases to audiences. 

 

 

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

This is a big threat to theatres as a mid-size film I predict will have a hard time at the BO in the future.

What midsize movies are successes nowadays anyways? Unless Netflix starts threatening blockbusters, I'm not raising an eyebrow.

[Lordmandeep]

6 minutes ago, cannastop said:

What midsize movies are successes nowadays anyways? Unless Netflix starts threatening blockbusters, I'm not raising an eyebrow.

 

I think you fail to get the point, why aren't mid-size movie successful these days?

 

 

People are not gonna spend 20 bucks the theatre to watch a rather typical time pass film, but on Netflix, they would watch it in droves...

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[WrathOfHan]

18 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Netflix’s ‘Bright’ Draws 11M U.S. Viewers In First Three Days

http://deadline.com/2017/12/bright-ratings-will-smith-netflix-nielsen-1202233332/

 

I think the point is that Bright has brought a lot of attention to Netflix Movies, meaning if they start churning out mid-size hits like this, they will become an even more desirable streaming entity.

 

This is a big threat to theatres as a mid-size film I predict will have a hard time at the BO in the future.

The only reason Bright got that many viewers is because it was on Netflix and included with a subscription. If this was pushed theatrically with $9+ tickets, you'd be looking at 30M tops on OW.

[junkshop36]

1 hour ago, RySenkari said:

 

Maybe see if Kirsten Dunst will do another Jumanji film? [mod edit]

 

Ummm....is this not a spoiler? And if it is then thanks for letting me know that since I haven’t seen it yet.