New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[Lordmandeep]

I think it a lie to suggest Episode 9 won't be changed in any way.

 

 

 

I am sure the reception to TLJ is in JJs mind so it has a subtle effect

 

 

I think you may get some fanservice through in which would likely be skipped over by Rian Johnson. 

Edited December 31, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[a2k]

RO Sun, Mon was 16.75, 15.91 (-5%).

TLJ's Sun is 13.4. So needs +20% to beat RO's 15.9 Monday.

Last Sun, Mon also RO beat TLJ. Could happen again.

[JB33]

16 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

If TLJ wasn’t an event movie than I guess nothing really is. It wasn’t a once-in-generation phenomenon like TFA, Avatar, or Titanic but everyone already knew that. No surprise there. Over $500M is an event movie haha for sure! $200M+ OW is an event movie.

I think I can sum it up. Some of us just thought the holiday numbers would be stronger than they already are (ie. Christmas Day jump, this past Friday's DROP). We were told that the calendar was such that its first week would be a bit more subdued than expected, but that the holidays would be even better than expected to make up for it. Its behaviour would be entirely unique to this calendar configuration.

 

Except that didn't happen. In fact, it continued to come in below estimates and expectations in some cases (again with the drop on Friday and stuff like that). As a Star Wars fan and a box office junkie, it's just been a bit deflating. That's all.

Edited December 31, 2017 by JB33

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, The Last AndyLL said:

 

 

And that is why TLJ is 'only' going to have around a 3 multiplier.   Unlike TFA a decent amount of those 1st WE viewers decided to see something else instead of a 2nd viewing.

 

But lets remove some of the hyperbole.

 

People not seeing a movie more than once in the theater does not mean there is  toxic... or even mixed... WOM.

 

A movie doing over 300 million in the 2 weeks after OW does not have mixed WOM.

 

A movie that will end with around 650M DOM does not have mixed WOM.

 

TLJ turned out not to be an 'event' movie like TFA and there is no doubt it is divisive with some hard core fans.

.

TLJ is going to drop from TFA about the same amount as AOTC did from TPM.  The big OW got a lot of us excited that TLJ was going to buck the trend.  But it didn't happen.

 

Disney is not panicked... there is not going to be any changes to their plans because of TLJ... and SW fans will be back to watch IX on OW in 2 years

 

 

 

 

And I'd agree with you...except this entire post could have been written (and probably was written) in April 2016...

 

This is a supers movie that makes over $150M OW...and makes over $300M DOM and over $870M WW...and makes way over 3x+ its production budget...

 

A supers movie that comes from a line of other DC supers movie that have all averaged over $300M DOM and enormous #'s WW...

 

A supers movie that sets up the ultimate "it" movie with the starting of the actual league...just wait and see what that one will do...

 

Who cares that the audience seemed mixed - B Cinescore and 63% RT.com audience score shows they liked it well enough to keep following... 

 

Who cares that it seems like it will be a hard set up for the culmination movie...and that you have to advertise without one of the core characters that was so popular...

 

I can keep going...but certainty is probably one thing we shouldn't have about IX...if only b/c the certainty we had for another movie before the critics and 1st viewings came in was so far off...

 

Audiences will walk...and sometimes, you just never know when.  You can make a better movie, which JL was, and it still doesn't always help...

 

(Now, I think Star Wars fans are the most rabid there are...but even they may have a limit...)

[a2k]

Will COCO get to 200? Ratatouille's ~206 at least seems tough.

6

6

Coco

BV

$6,572,000

+22.1%

2,104

-7

$3,124

$178,944,459

-

6

 

Maybe Disney will 'Tangle' it across the finish line.

 

Edited December 31, 2017 by a2knet

[MCKillswitch123]

That is actually a mad increase for The Greatest Showman. Wom seems very positive, as it turns out, and if it keeps up this kind of momentum, it might actually gross 100M...... off of an 8.8M wide opening. Would that be a 1st (a sub-10M opener grossing over 100M DOM). Although, it's a gigantic "IF" because there's still a gigantic mountain to climb for that to happen.

 

Ferdinand might also have a mosquito's chance. It's trailing Alvin 4 by quite a bit, but Alvin 4 had already been past New Year by its 17th day, so it's not highly comparable. But more than likely, it finishes between 85-90M. And that's lucky.

 

Jumanji is an absolute monster, and I think it has enough momentum for a potential 290-300M finish, which is mad.

 

And as far as TLJ goes...... well, for positivity's sake, it's a 220M opener that has pulled 500M+ DOM and snatched the #1 DOM film of 2017 spot from BATB in three weeks. It's a disappointment, and yet still, it's a juggernaut.

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

 

@a2knet Coco is outpacing Tangled at this point in time, so I think it's more than likely that it reaches 200M. And no need to worry about Pitch Perfect 3 either, cause it's outpacing Passengers by quite a margin - Passengers was at 66M after the New Year 4-day weekend, PP3 is at 64m with the 3-day alone and Monday is New Year Day.... PP3 is looking very likely at 100M at this point

Edited December 31, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[Brainbug]

Happy new year from Germany!

[DeeCee]

2 hours ago, junkshop36 said:

 

Ummm....is this not a spoiler? And if it is then thanks for letting me know that since I haven’t seen it yet. 

 

@junkshop36 It’s not really a spoiler. It just reads like a spoiler if you haven’t seen the movie.  I’ve hidden it just to be safe. 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

That is actually a mad increase for The Greatest Showman. Wom seems very positive, as it turns out, and if it keeps up this kind of momentum, it might actually gross 100M...... off of an 8.8M wide opening. Would that be a 1st (a sub-10M opener grossing over 100M DOM). Although, it's a gigantic "IF" because there's still a gigantic mountain to climb for that to happen.

 

Ferdinand might also have a mosquito's chance. It's trailing Alvin 4 by quite a bit, but Alvin 4 had already been past New Year by its 17th day, so it's not highly comparable. But more than likely, it finishes between 85-90M. And that's lucky.

 

Jumanji is an absolute monster, and I think it has enough momentum for a potential 290-300M finish, which is mad.

 

And as far as TLJ goes...... well, for positivity's sake, it's a 220M opener that has pulled 500M+ DOM and snatched the #1 DOM film of 2017 spot from BATB in three weeks. It's a disappointment, and yet still, it's a juggernaut.

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Depends when you want to consider "My Big Fat Greek Wedding's" wide open...it never made more than $14M in a weekend (which was a 4 day holiday, so really it never made more than $12M)...

Edited December 31, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[MCKillswitch123]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Depends when you want to consider "My Big Fat Greek Wedding's" wide open...it never made more than $14M in a weekend (which was a 4 day holiday, so really it never made more than $12M)...

MBFGW was a limited opener, tho (101 theaters). When I say wide opener, I mean a movie that was in over 800 theaters in its 1st weekend.

[IronJimbo]

8 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Happy new year from Germany!

🎉🎆🎇❇✨🎉🎊🎎

[a2k]

15 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

@a2knet Coco is outpacing Tangled at this point in time, so I think it's more than likely that it reaches 200M. 

It's ahead in cume but is getting it's ass kicked last few days.

For eg: last Fri-Thu Tangled added 20.75 and Coco 16.25.

Spoiler

Fri	coco $1,852,790 +41.1% / -17.7% $157,971,918 / 31	tangled $1,722,293 -34.8% / -21.1% $138,989,800 / 31
Sat	$2,210,691 +19.3% / -48% $160,182,609 / 32	$2,074,178 +20.4% / -45.2% $141,063,978 / 32
Sun	$1,319,668 -40.3% / -61.7% $161,502,277 / 33	$2,631,345 +26.9% / -6.2% $143,695,323 / 33
Mon	$2,805,466 +112.6% / +138.8% $164,307,743 / 34	$3,238,433 +23.1% / +62.8% $146,933,756 / 34
Tue	$2,746,967 -2.1% / +61.2% $167,054,710 / 35	$3,626,074 +12% / +47.3% $150,559,830 / 35
Wed	$2,650,002 -3.5% / +122.4% $169,704,712 / 36	$3,718,717 +2.6% / +64.9% $154,278,547 / 36
Thu	$2,667,747 +0.7% / +103.2% $172,372,459 / 37	$3,740,348 +0.6% / +41.5% $158,018,895 / 37
WK 5	$16,253,331	$20,751,388
WEEK 6

 

Again this FSS is 6.5 Coco vs 9.8 Tangled.

 

So in last 10 days Coco's lead in running total has reduced from 19 (156 vs 137) to 11 (179 vs 168). 

 

If it holds on to this lead then it gets to 211 dom. But Tangled should continue to erode it IMO (by a lesser degree as post-holiday numbers will get smaller). 

 

But yeah 200 still looks good

Edited December 31, 2017 by a2knet

[KC7]

9 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

That is actually a mad increase for The Greatest Showman. Wom seems very positive, as it turns out, and if it keeps up this kind of momentum, it might actually gross 100M...... off of an 8.8M wide opening. Would that be a 1st (a sub-10M opener grossing over 100M DOM). Although, it's a gigantic "IF" because there's still a gigantic mountain to climb for that to happen

Off the top of my head, I think Scream would be the record holder among wide release openings. It only made a little over 6 million in its opening weekend, and kept going...and going...and going... Until it finally hit 100M.

 

eta: Interesting enough, Scream opened on the weekend before Christmas, just like TGS.

Edited December 31, 2017 by KC7

[Taruseth]

Happy New Year

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

This is a supers movie that makes over $150M OW...and makes over $300M DOM and over $870M WW...and makes way over 3x+ its production budget...

If we're going down this road, I think the much better comparison is Man of Steel, not Batman vs Superman.  Of course, even here there are differences as critical reception of MoS and TLJ are lightyears apart.

 

But if we're just going down in regards to the split in the fandom, I'd absolutely look to MoS and TLJ first.  MoS gave way to years of debates about the characterization of Superman as well as its overall nihilistic tone.

 

There are two problems here, however. Maybe three.

 

One, and I would say this being on one 'side' of the debate, the arguing about how <SPOILER ISSUE> was handled has long long roots in various SW tales.  And while some could point to some Superman stories for Snyder's inspiration, it just doesn't seem the same to me.

Secondly, there was just as much arguing about the tone and message about MoS as there was about the characterization of Supes.  That is much less prevalent here, IMO.  That means that if the films aren't centered around <SPOILER ISSUE>, it won't matter as much.  This doubly goes for Rian Johnson's mooted trilogy as it is said to be All New Characters in a All New Area of the setting.

 

Finally, SW has long been riddled with debates about What Star Wars Should Be.  Superman, on the other hand, has been pretty consistently portrayed for the last 40 to 50 years.  Throw in a few snide quotes by Synder about the character that anti-fans latched on to, out of context or not, and we have much more of a superficial comparison IMO.

 

====

 

Now if Ep 9 or another film doubles down on the supposed takes of TLJ like BvS did in more than a few ways, then we might have a BvS situation where people keep fleeing.  Now TLJ is many things.  But disrespectful to the tone and message of SW wasn't one of them, IMO.  So there's much less of a danger of it happening, IMO.

 

Not no chance.  But much less of one, yeah I'd say so.

[DAR]

31 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

I think it a lie to suggest Episode 9 won't be changed in any way.

 

 

 

I am sure the reception to TLJ is in JJs mind so it has a subtle effect

 

 

I think you may get some fanservice through in which would likely be skipped over by Rian Johnson. 

If it benefits the story yes.  If it’s to placate the die hards who “left” then bad idea

[Ryan Reynolds]

Well i think Lucas listened to fan backlash and gave us less Jar Jar in Episode II and III

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Well i think Lucas listened to fan backlash and gave us less Jar Jar in Episode II and III

On the other hand, Jar Jar advocating for Supreme Chancellor Emergency Powers felt like a troll move of the highest order

[mikee11]

4 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Well i think Lucas listened to fan backlash and gave us less Jar Jar in Episode II and III

hopefully less rian johnson in future movies

[KC7]

39 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

MBFGW was a limited opener, tho (101 theaters). When I say wide opener, I mean a movie that was in over 800 theaters in its 1st weekend.

32 minutes ago, KC7 said:

Off the top of my head, I think Scream would be the record holder among wide release openings. It only made a little over 6 million in its opening weekend, and kept going...and going...and going... Until it finally hit 100M.

 

eta: Interesting enough, Scream opened on the weekend before Christmas, just like TGS.

I checked BOM and found one that beat Scream (though it was an entirely different era, which may make it even more impressive). Way back in 1980, 9 to 5 debuted to 3.97 million in 910 theaters, and made it all the way to 103M. Now that's a hit.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=9to5.htm

 

When was it released? Yep, the weekend before Christmas. Probably no surprise that the holidays are exactly the right time to let a film grow.

Edited January 1, 2018 by KC7