New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

hopefully less rian johnson in future movies

See you in line at the opening night previews of his upcoming trilogy!

(™of @IronJimbo)

Edited January 1, 2018 by Porthos

[The Futurist]

Happy New Year Folks !

May 2018 Be With You !

 

 

 

 

[Maxmoser3]

Well guys 2017 was fun! But the summer and October were rough, thanks to Studios relying on franchises, wannabe tent poles, and big budget misfires.

[Eric the IF]

58 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

salty mad because even imdb score proves mixed WOM, the displayed score is just rigged

Y'know, it's kinda weird that you seemingly only joined here  to diss Last Jedi. Most people here join to have fun discussion about box office and the industry as a whole, but you seem rather dedicated to only targeting one specific movie. Sad!

[Brainbug]

8 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Y'know, it's kinda weird that you seemingly only joined here  to diss Last Jedi. Most people here join to have fun discussion about box office and the industry as a whole, but you seem rather dedicated to only targeting one specific movie. Sad!

 

Its like he is coming right from the YT comment section

[mikee11]

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Y'know, it's kinda weird that you seemingly only joined here  to diss Last Jedi. Most people here join to have fun discussion about box office and the industry as a whole, but you seem rather dedicated to only targeting one specific movie. Sad!

Not an argument, everyone probably found the forum when they were looking for more info on one specific movie or another.

 

I didn't know that the imdb score is not the mean, so I shared the fact. The imdb mean is closer to the RT mean than the adjusted score,so even there there are signs of mixed WOM despite the fact that TFA was top 17 on the imdb top 250 at one time.

 

What's sad is targeting users because they share facts you don't like.  smh 

[aabattery]

Top 5 reveal coming up for anyone interested:

 

 

[narniadis]

I see nothing has changed..... never understand rude newbs. 

[vc2002]

New Year's Day Weekend Thread: Late Friday estimates (DHD) - TLJ 19.5M, Jumanji 17.5M, PP3 6.7M, TGS 5.3M

 

The thread title has remained the same from 2017-2018.

[narniadis]

btw Saw Jumanji this afternoon. Can totally see why it has made bank at the box office - very pleasing film (even if it had way too many dick jokes).

[junkshop36]

In Deadlines latest write up they state that industry insiders think that TLJ will end up winning the 4 day with about 68-69m. 

 

We’ll see. I think it’s kind of ridiculous that we get studio estimates for Monday on Sunday afternoon but that’s the world we live in now so, whatever. 

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:

In Deadlines latest write up they state that industry insiders think that TLJ will end up winning the 4 day with about 68-69m. 

 

We’ll see. I think it’s kind of ridiculous that we get studio estimates for Monday on Sunday afternoon but that’s the world we live in now so, whatever. 

 

Disney’s Monday projection is extremely conservative. 

[Finnick]

''HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE, MAY 2018 BRINGS FORTUNE & JOY TO YOU ALL''

Spent the New Year working night shift, well some people make sure minimum service must go on!!

[thunder storm]

today I don t care about the numbers!
I m just here to say: 

 

[Webslinger]

Okay, I'm gonna try not to stir the pot too much here with some brief thoughts on the weekend...

 

The Last Jedi is obviously still performing at a high level, but yes, it's a disappointment relative to the expectations. I wish it was doing better, but it's still on track to finish well over $600 million and will ultimately see about as big of a drop as Empire Strikes Back and Attack of the Clones did from the first films of their respective trilogies. I do worry about where the Star Wars saga is headed at the box office from here on out, but that's less because of The Last Jedi and more because of the troubling vibes surrounding Solo and the fact that Disney is pushing such a high volume of Star Wars films so fast.

 

Jumanji is putting up astounding numbers. I didn't think it had a chance at challenging Last Jedi for the top spot, yet it came pretty close for the weekend overall and within a hair's breadth of winning Saturday and Sunday. I could easily see it rising to #1 next weekend. How it performs in January remains to be seen, but it should be good for at least $275 million in total and could push toward $300 million if it holds up really well throughout the month. Either way, it's a huge - and much-needed - winner for Sony.

 

Pitch Perfect 3 is still putting up anemic numbers, but the boost from the holiday weekdays should still be enough to carry it past $100 million.

 

I'm really taken aback by that jump for The Greatest Showman. I'd definitely written it off about a week ago, and yet it should now be able to finish with a somewhat respectable total. I don't know about $100 million, but it's certainly going to get closer to that milestone than I was expecting. I'm curious to see what its demos look like; it's harmless enough to appeal to families (hence the PG), but the audience I saw it with on Christmas Day appeared to be very predominantly over the age of 25.

 

I would say that Ferdinand is doing okay in such a crowded marketplace where the top two movies are drawing significant family audiences, but that $111 million budget hurts.

 

It's too bad that Coco didn't see a bigger boost, but it does have more family-appealing and PG-rated films in its way than Moana did last year.

 

All the Money in the World has put up an unspectacular performance thus far, but that's somewhat understandable given the challenges stemming from the Spacey fallout, the fact that reshot scenes were just completed mere weeks ago, and the dark subject matter. Barring a shockingly strong Oscar showing in a few weeks, it's not going to last past January.

 

Darkest Hour is doing really well, relatively speaking. It's basically matching up with the other adult movies despite playing in just a fraction of the theaters. It'll be worth keeping an eye on as we get closer to Oscar nominee announcement. I was initially skeptical of the plan to take it mostly wide over Christmas, but it's clearly connecting with older viewers seeking prestige fare.

 

That drop for Downsizing is decidedly not encouraging, but unsurprising in the face of negative audience reactions. It's in for some ugly drops in the next couple weeks.

 

I'm surprised that Father Figures managed a modest jump from last week, but that's one of the few silver linings in its otherwise poor run.

 

The Shape of Water isn't performing as well as I'd hoped it would in its expansion (ditto for Call Me by Your Name). Awards hype should keep the two afloat for some time yet, however.

 

It's very nice to see that The Post is still kicking ass in very limited release. It should be able to ride the buzz to a really solid performance when it goes wide in two weeks.

[a2k]

Tue-Thu should be strong and steal from the coming weekend for both TLJ and J giving heftier than expected drops, just like summer weekdays take away from weekends.

 

NATM fell 35% in post-holiday weekend while Sing fell 52%. I think that's the best-case/worst-case for J as it has trended much better than Sing and so despite weekdays taking away from weekend the drop shouldn't be worse than Sing's.

 

RO fell 55.5% while TFA fell a similar 53%. TLJ may drop 54% at best and worst-case could be 60-62%.

 

Even using a worst-case 52% for J and a best-case 54% for TLJ, next weekend should go to J.

 

50.570*0.48 = 24.250 J (-52%)

52.446*0.46 = 24.125 TLJ (-54%)

 

[That One Girl]

List and stuff

 

 

[filmlover]

Thoughts on the weekend numbers:

 

The Last Jedi's numbers are what they are. It's still making a ton of money. I'm gonna waste time dissecting why it's looking at such a big fall-off from The Force Awakens and whatnot.

 

Jumanji has become a monster though. This has to be Sony's first unqualified hit since...well, what?

 

Pitch Perfect 3 and The Greatest Showman aren't lighting the world on fire but rebounded from underwhelming pre-Christmas numbers. The former should cross $100M, even if Universal ends up having to push it over the mark.

 

Disney will likely have to push Coco past $200M but it's had a very good run overall.

 

Weak opening for All the Money in the World, but I guess people didn't want to see something so heavy around the holidays, regardless of the free publicity it received.

 

Molly's Game got off to a great start. It won't be a big hit but I think it should be on track for at least a $30M total.

 

Darkest Hour is doing great, while the other Oscar contenders (The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards, I Tonya), are holding on well too. Movies like those usually need to just survive the holiday onslaught on their way to taking advantage of the awards buzz in January. Phantom Thread got off to a good start but it probably won't do so hot when it goes wider unless it becomes more than a Best Actor nominee contender.

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

Darkest Hour is doing great, while the other Oscar contenders (The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards, I Tonya), are holding on well too. Movies like those usually need to just survive the holiday onslaught on their way to taking advantage of the awards buzz in January. Phantom Thread got off to a good start but it probably won't do so hot when it goes wider unless it becomes more than a Best Actor nominee contender.

Call Me by Your Name is not doing well. Stop it.

[Eric the IF]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Jumanji has become a monster though. This has to be Sony's first unqualified hit since...well, what?

If we're talking tentpole movies, I think it's their first big non-Spidey/Bond hit since...Hotel Transylvania 2...back in 2015. (Or I guess you could maybe make a case for Angry Birds. Its domestic gross was meh, but $350M on a $73M budget is pretty good). It's also the first non-Spider-Bond Sony movie to gross more than $200M since...Hancock...back in 2008. Yeesh, Sony really has gone south (Speaking of Hancock, how come they never made a sequel to that?)