Weekend thread | Deadline Friday Est. (p.11) ~ PR:U 10.1M, BP 4.4M, ICOI 3.7M, TR 2.8M, SG 2.7M, AWIT 2.1M, L,S 2.3M, P,AOC 1.5M, MS 1.45M, GN 1.2M, U 1.3M

[CoolioD1]

just checked and the sherlock gnomes tomatometer is at gnomety gnome percent? that's rough. and by rough i mean gnome.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

just checked and the sherlock gnomes tomatometer is at gnomety gnome percent? that's rough. and by rough i mean gnome.

It’s a gnome win situation.

[a2k]

20+15(-25%)+10(-33%)+5(-50%)=45 fss/50 fssm for RPO imo.

120-125 dom with 2.7x multi (fss)

[kitik]

Sorry for taking so long, I finally tallied the Most Anticipated Movies thread votes for this week, so you can head over and vote for next week now:

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/667-box-office-theorys-most-anticipated-films/?page=333

 

[MovieMan89]

I will give Paramount some props for pushing Gnomes as hard as they could. I mean it's not like you can market something like that "effectively", but damn if they didn't shove it down everyone's throat anyways. 

[YM!]

Gnomes O/U Monster Trucks?

[LonePirate]

If Simon manages to land in that range from Deadline, then $8M would be a 32% drop and $10M would be a 15% drop. Maybe its exceptional WOM is finally starting to kick in.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, LonePirate said:

If Simon manages to land in that range from Deadline, then $8M would be a 32% drop and $10M would be a 15% drop. Maybe its exceptional WOM is finally starting to kick in.

Fingers crossed for the high end.

[intenso]

Those deadline predictions are so out there. WTF !

[harrycaul]

6 minutes ago, intenso said:

Those deadline predictions are so out there. WTF !

I thought they looked fine, other than they might be underestimating ICOI again.

[WrathOfHan]

@Blankments time to catch up on two weeks of trailer stalkers (I never got the trailers for ICOI, Paul, and Midnight Sun in theaters):

 

7:

A Quiet Place (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Downsizing, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Annihilation, Red Sparrow, Love, Simon)

Sicario: Day of the Soldado (All the Money in the World, Molly’s Game, The Commuter, Phantom Thread, Annihilation, Red Sparrow, Unsane)

 

6:

Isle of Dogs (The LEGO Ninjago Movie, Downsizing, Phantom Thread, The Shape of Water, Black Panther, Love, Simon)

Pacific Rim: Uprising (Blade Runner, Geostorm, Thank You for Your Service, Thor: Ragnarok, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Annihilation)

 

5:

Alpha (Hitman’s Bodyguard, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok, Downsizing, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle)

 

4:

Deadpool 2 (Justice League, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Red Sparrow, Love, Simon)

Love, Simon (The Greatest Showman, The Post, Red Sparrow, Game Night)

Ready Player One (It, Blade Runner 2049, Justice League, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Sherlock Gnomes (Coco, Wonder, The Greatest Showman, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle)

Tomb Raider (Geostorm, Justice League, Black Panther, Red Sparrow)

 

3:

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (The Greatest Showman, The Post, Love, Simon)

Rampage (Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, The Shape of Water, Annihilation)

Tully (The Post, Phantom Thread, Red Sparrow)

 

2:

7 Days in Entebbe (Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread)

Acrimony (The Commuter, Red Sparrow)

Alita: Battle Angel (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle)

Avengers: Infinity War (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Downsizing)

Blockers (Downsizing, Game Night)

Hereditary (Annihilation, Unsane)

Incredibles 2 (Coco, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Black Panther)

Life of the Party (Game Night, Love, Simon)

Mission: Impossible – Fallout (Black Panther, Annihilation)

Ocean’s 8 (The Greatest Showman, Game Night)

Overboard (Game Night, Love, Simon)

Polaroid (Wind River, mother!)

Truth or Dare (Red Sparrow, Unsane)

Venom (Black Panther, Game Night)

 

1:

Spoiler

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp (Black Panther)

Beirut (Unsane)

Book Club (Game Night)

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Unsane)

The Current War (Wind River)

Disobedience (Unsane)

Duck Duck Goose (Ninjago)

I Feel Pretty (Love, Simon)

The Miracle Season (Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle)

Mortal Engines (The Commuter)

The New Mutants (Thor: Ragnarok)

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (The Greatest Showman)

The Party (Lady Bird)

Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero (Wonder)

Smallfoot (Coco)

Solo: A Star Wars Story (Black Panther)

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Love, Simon)

Super Troopers 2 (Kingsman)

Tag (Unsane)

Uncle Drew (Annihilation)

Unsane (Game Night)

 

 

[LonePirate]

2 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

I thought they looked fine, other than they might be underestimating ICOI again.

 

Something is being underestimated that is for sure. I was running late so I didn't have time to check tickets sold at the theater closest to me; but the parking lot was jam packed for the first round of afternoon shows today. It was as full as it gets during evening prime time on the weekends. I suspect ICOI and/or Paul are going to exceed these initial estimates.

[TwoMisfits]

For Paul, the one local I was tracking just added a 2nd showing for 7pm b/c it sold out its 6:30pm...

 

This was the trend from ICOI last weekend...now Paul ain't opening to ICOI numbers, but I would bet it trends up vs down for the weekend...

 

 

[Avatree]

I just watched Pacific Rim in IMAX and it was awesome. Got nothing else to do this evening so... attend the next showing in 5 minutes?

 

[Valonqar]

Suck it critics! You are out of touch with masses! You gave Paul 32% but the audience gave it 94%! Paul = Reverse TLJ. 

[That One Girl]

11 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Suck it critics! You are out of touch with masses! You gave Paul 32% but the audience gave it 94%! Paul = Reverse TLJ. 

 

Actually, Paul has a 71% critics score and a 62% audience score

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Actually, Paul has a 71% critics score and a 62% audience score

You are trolling me with some other Paul. The only Paul that matters is:

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/paul_apostle_of_christ

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm surprised Uprising actually managed to break 15 let alone 20. Sad though when low 20's seems like a huge overperformance. Decent for BP. Pretty bad for most everything else. Hopefully things go up. 

It hasn’t had a huge over performance, it was tracking at $25-30m according to the trades. It’s a rather big bomb in US.  

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

The TR hold is horrendous is those numbers hold considering the weekdays and it managed to hold onto all of its TC. Really don't know why WOM would be that awful, it's definitely not on the craptacular level of almost every other video game movie. 

Why would it have lost any theatres in its second weekend? Very rarely happens and not for films that open over $20m. 

[LonePirate]

The TR drop should be a surprise to no one. It was passed in the dailies two days ago by a film about a Christian music song. Nobody except the true believers had even heard of that movie two weeks ago. 

 

Sure, Vikander deserves better but TR should still cross $50M. Maybe.

[Valonqar]

All March "blockbusters" looked awful and had minimal buzz even within their built-in fandoms (game, book, sequel). At least RPO is getting decent reviews atm (could go down like PR:U). None of these movies is poised to crossover. Once core fans interested in them exhaust the demand, there's a nose dive. Also, BP is still stealing the audience due to WOM.