Weekend thread | Deadline Friday Est. (p.11) ~ PR:U 10.1M, BP 4.4M, ICOI 3.7M, TR 2.8M, SG 2.7M, AWIT 2.1M, L,S 2.3M, P,AOC 1.5M, MS 1.45M, GN 1.2M, U 1.3M

[KeepItU25071906]

Quote

The one bright spot on the specialty scene this weekend is Wes Anderson’s Isle of Dogs from Fox Searchlight which currently owns the second-best opening theater average of the year with $46,8K after Black Panther’s $50K. The stop motion animated title earned $400K on Friday and is on track for a $1.26M opening at 27 theaters.

[lab276]

I know the box office is kinda slow right now and maybe no one cares about it, but how hard could it be to have gotten some Friday estimates out a couple hours ago?

[MikeQ]

34 minutes ago, POTUS said:

http://deadline.com/2018/03/pacific-rim-uprising-black-panther-weekend-box-office-1202352184/

 

‘Pacific Rim: Uprising’ Doesn’t Create Waves At $26M+; ‘Black Panther’ Sets Marvel Record & Beats ‘Avengers’

Similar to that Lara Croft movie, the Legendary/Universal title’s $26.6M domestic opening is so low next to its estimated $155M net production cost, the studios have no choice but to depend on foreign to bail them out. In addition, moviegoers had the same reaction to both movies with a B CinemaScore. We’ve seen this crash, bang, boom before, but in two different movies. They were titled Transformers and Godzilla.

Aside from Black Panther becoming the highest grossing Marvel movie ever at the domestic box office with $630.5M, this weekend has turned into a dumping ground for new entries at the box office, and publicists, don’t try to tell us otherwise. Seriously. The irony is that the openings for the other four wide releases are so bad, it just makes Pacific Rim Uprising’s three-day look glamorous.

Weekend grosses according to Deadline’s latest update:

 

Pacific Rim 2: $26.6M

Black Panther: $16.2M (implied weekend gross by saying total gross is now $630.5M)

I Can Only Imagine: $12.8M

Sherlock Gnomes: $9.7M

Paul, Apostle of Christ: $4.9M

Midnight Sun: $4M

Unsane: $3.5M

Isle of Dogs: $1.26M (46,800K PTA)

 

As usual, I trust the Deadline projections less when they don’t even provide Friday numbers - their weekend multipliers could be wonky.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Edited March 24, 2018 by MikeQ

[TalismanRing]

Deadline

 

THUMB	RANK	FILM	STUDIO	SCREENS (CHG)	FRIDAY	3-DAY (%)	TOTAL	WEEKEND NO.
	1	Pacific Rim Uprising	Uni/Leg	3,708	$10.1M	$26.6M		1
	2	Black Panther	Dis	3,370 (-464)	$4.4M	$16.3M	$630.5M	6
	3	I Can Only Imagine	RSA	2,253 (+624)	$3.7M	$12.8M (-25%)	$37.2m	2
	4	Tomb Raider	MGM/WB	3,854	$2.8M	$10M (-58%)	$41.3M	2
	5	Sherlock Gnomes	MGM/Par	3,662	$2.7M	$9.7M		1
	6	A Wrinkle In Time	Dis	3,423 (-557)	$2.1M	$7.9M (-51%)	$73.7M	3
	7	Love, Simon	Fox	2,434 (+32)	$2.3M	$7.6M (-35)	$23.5M	2
	8	Paul, Apostle Of Christ	Sony	1,473	$1.5M	$4.9M		1
	9	Midnight Sun	GR	2,173	$1.45M	$4M		1
	10	Game Night	WB/NL	1,866 (-820)	$1.2M	$4M (-28%)	$60.7M	5
	11	Unsane	BST	2,023	$1.3M	$3.5M		1

[Krissykins]

Great for Love, Simon. Phew. 

 

Shame about Tomb Raider, I don’t see it getting to $10m with a $2.8m Friday either. 

 

Unsane, Midnight whatever, Paul whoever, Gnomes all DOA. 

[a2k]

- Back to back 50%+ drops for Wrinkle In Time. Should loose theaters 3rd weekend onward too. 100 dom or even 95+ looks very difficult.

 

- 26.6 looks optimistic for PRU with 10.1 friday imo. 2.35 + 7.75 + 9.3 (+20%) + 6.4 (-31%) = 25.8

[TalismanRing]

Sherlock Gnomes... $9.7m

 

 

I am so shit at judging these low rent animations  They can make $5m or $25m and I feel like I'm at the wrong end 75% of the time.

[Zakiyyah6]

Pacific Rim's opening would be solid if it had a 75mil budget instead of a 150mil one. It's screwed. ICOI will have a great drop and Love Simon a good one. Midnight Sun did terribly but it's starring a horrible actress and looks lame so of course it did. That animated movie flopping is hilarious. I thought it would open with twice that.

 

A Wrinkle in Time didn't recover this weekend. It has absolutely no chance of hitting 100mil. It will probably drop a lot of the theaters next weekend. 

 

Edited March 24, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[BK007]

Yes! Good job America on letting WiT die.

[fabiopazzo2]

Only BP save this 2018 ... 3 bad month in US  

[WrathOfHan]

Good start for Isle of Dogs, but I was hoping it'd hit a 60k PTA

lmao @ Gnomes. I had a feeling it was going under 10M but didn't want to go for it. At least my 11.5M prediction is one of the lowest in the Derby. Theaters will be dropping it FAST

A shame that Unsane is debuting outside the top 10. If Soderbergh wasn't releasing movies himself, I wonder if Blumhouse would've picked this up. It would have made A LOT more with them, and they don't meddle around with directors.

Love, Simon should benefit from the low PTAs of Gnomes/WIT/Tomb Raider and retain most of its screens next week

[Hiccup23]

Not bad for Love Simon. Was hoping for a over $8M weekend but I might just be greedy. 

[CoolioD1]

Side Effects needs to be brought up more as one of soderbergh's best. It's so fucking good.

[WrathOfHan]

It's hilarious how family movies rarely get below an A- Cinemascore, yet it's happened twice this month  

[picores]

Well...its not like Pacific Rim was a blockbuster 5 years ago...and that one had Del Toro, a bigger budget and a perfect spot summer release. I dont think its bad a 25m+ OW, not good either. What matters here is the overseas earnings and that one remains to be seen.. 70/250/320 wouldnt make it profitable but not a turd in the end. First Pacific Rim barely crossed 400 WW..

[aabattery]

11 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Side Effects needs to be brought up more as one of soderbergh's best. It's so fucking good.

 

Willllldddd movie.

 

Great final film. 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, picores said:

Well...its not like Pacific Rim was a blockbuster 5 years ago...and that one had Del Toro, a bigger budget and a perfect spot summer release. I dont think its bad a 25m+ OW, not good either. What matters here is the overseas earnings and that one remains to be seen.. 70/250/320 wouldnt make it profitable but not a turd in the end. First Pacific Rim barely crossed 400 WW..

Yeah, 25+ ow a week back would have seemed like a little relief. But then China was expected to do around 150. Now that China is expected to be closer to 110 (maybe less), the 25+ dom ow is looking mellow. 

[Zakiyyah6]

1 minute ago, picores said:

Well...its not like Pacific Rim was a blockbuster 5 years ago...and that one had Del Toro, a bigger budget and a perfect spot summer release. I dont think its bad a 25m+ OW, not good either. What matters here is the overseas earnings and that one remains to be seen.. 70/250/320 wouldnt make it profitable but not a turd in the end. First Pacific Rim barely crossed 400 WW..

The film was made because the studio wanted a franchise, not to just not lose a lot of money. If it only does 300mil then it is a failure. 

[bladels]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It's hilarious how family movies rarely get below an A- Cinemascore, yet it's happened twice this month  

On more positive note, we have 3 A+ movies in theater at the same time

[filmlover]

Are people legit surprised Sherlock Gnomes is doing so poorly? I always doubted that families were that desperate.