INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE

[Agafin]

So is it even possible to know which one of TFA or AIW sold more tickets OW?

[RandomCat]

8 minutes ago, Sam said:

It’s not that big of a gap base on the numbers, but looks like Marvel definitely has some catching up to do.

For Stevejaros, that's a win.

[fabiopazzo2]

3 minutes ago, Agafin said:

So is it even possible to know which one of TFA or AIW sold more tickets OW?

Disney 

[redfirebird2008]

3 minutes ago, Agafin said:

So is it even possible to know which one of TFA or AIW sold more tickets OW?

 

They are close enough with inflation to call it a tie. I would probably lean in the direction of Infinity War since the 3D percentages have gotten lower and lower every year.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/?adjust_yr=2018&p=.htm

[jaybox]

42 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Between now and 2020, Avengers 4 is the only movie that has a chance to break the OW record imo, and if it somehow succeeds (which is not super likely, but I'd be a moron to underestimate its realistic chance once again), then nothing is touching the record for another 5-10 years. Not that IW is gonna make it any easy to break, though.

 

As far as the others:
- Jurassic World 2: The 1st one had the 14 year separation novelty and was a walkup wom monster; the absolute ceiling for this imo is O/U JW1 OW as it'll be more frontloaded, and that is a 10% chance at best, with a more likely result being a 170-180 opening

- The Lion King: I've called 200M+ OW for this before anyone else in this forum and I have the evidence to back it up  That being said, I see a result in the JW-TLJ range as it is a family skewing movie and it'll be more backloaded alas animated films

- Star Wars Ep. IX: It has no hook and TLJ burned and pissed a lot of people off, not to mention it won't even sniff the hype TFA had, so if it makes more than TLJ, that's a good thing already

- Avatar 2: I think people underestimate the 200M+ OW chances for this.... Avatar may not have pop culture presence, but it was a phenomenom and interest will be huge for this. That being said, I doubt that it really blows up hardcore enough for 258, especially if it's a December opener

 

Next major OW record contender, should A4 not pull it off, is unquestionably Harry Potter 8 imo.

Everything you say make's sense.....But if you go back looking at the trends of US opening weekends...Something is going to break it in under 5 years.  I'm going off memory here but let's see the OW Records Since 1989:

 

1989: Ghostbusters 2 / Batman (didn't The Last Crusade break it too? i forget)

1992: Batman Returns

1993: Jurassic Park

1995 Batman Forever 

1997: The Lost World

2001: Harry Potter 1

2002: Spider-Man

2006: Dead Man's Chest (and in between this time it could be argued The Matrix Reloaded and Return of the King could have broken it - Same with Phantom Menace in 1999 cause it opened on Wednesday)

2007: Spider-Man 3

2008: The Dark Knight

2011: Harry Potter 8

2012: The Avengers

2015: Jurassic World / The Force Awakens

2018: Infinity War

 

In Almost 30 years the OW record hasn't lasted more than a little over 4 years.  SOMETHING is going to break it, maybe even a few times in the next 4-5 years. haha. At least that's my prediction based on this

Edited April 30, 2018 by jaybox

[TalismanRing]

42 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

Preview to OD Multipliers:
Avengers - 4.322
Iron Man 3 - 4.414
Age of Ultron - 3.059
Civil War - 3.020
Black Panther - 3.014

Marvel films have become far more frontloaded than they used to be. I'd be SHOCKED if this got a 3.0 multi for the previews. $117 is the absolute max it will do today. Probably closer to $110 mil OD.

Now for the Preview to OW Multipliers:
Avengers - 11.09
Iron Man 3 - 11.163
Age of Ultron - 6.93
Civil War - 7.166
Black Panther - 8.016

If it matched AOU, that would put it at $270 mil OW. But it will probably go lower, I'd say closer to 6.5, but that would put it at $253.5 mil OW.

Gonna be close.

So the Preview to OD Multiplier was an ESTIMATED 2.717. And the Preview to OW Multiplier was an ESTIMATED 6.62. So I was pretty dead on. But those are the two worst numbers Marvel has ever had.

Ultron had a 2.4 multi for the OW to Total, Civil War had a 2.28 multi, and Black Panther has had a 3.4! multi.

I'd think this is headed to around a 2.5, maybe 2.6. So the final total is PROBABLY going to be around $645 mil - $671 mil.

Of course the preview to o/w was the lowest - previews were $39m - $11.4m more than the nearest opener.

 

A 6.62 multi for a preview that size is impressive.   TLJ had a 4.88.    I knew the multi would go down, though not anywhere near SW numbers but thought 6 to 6.25 for AIW.   Tele argued it was going lower - that even with $40m in previews there was no chance in hell of it hitting $240m

 

Most interesting and impressive though is how it is back weekend loaded compared to other movies with huge previews.  It's FSS  is 3.27 for an o/w  off Friday.  That's a great number for a movie a fraction of the size let alone a $258m opener that already burned of $39m.  The Avengers was about 3.02 with 18.6m of previews.  

 

Right now I think 2.5 - 2.6 is on the lower end of the multi it can have

 

I think this weekend is going to drop in the 50-53% range and be around $460-470m after the 2nd weekend

 

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by TalismanRing

[expensiveho]

27 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

No one should make that much money for anything on the planet as long as millions of kids go to bed hungry every night in America alone. He seems like a fine guy but why in the world does anyone need that much money? No one needs 10 million in their entire lifetime, much less 100 million for one movie. 

Who would've known that Disney would end world hunger had RDJ done the movie for free. It's a Disney World, after all. 

[a2k]

640 WW OW => Russia and China combined would have pushed the OW to ~850, close to global totals of GOTG2 (863) and THOR3 (854), and above WONDR (821). Even SMH's 880 odd would not have been far off.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, jaybox said:

Everything you say make's sense.....But if you go back looking at the trends of US opening weekends...Something is going to break it in under 5 years.  I'm going off memory here but let's see the OW Records Since 1989:

 

1989: Ghostbusters 2 / Batman (didn't The Last Crusade break it too? i forget)

1992: Batman Returns

1993: Jurassic Park

1995 Batman Forever 

1997: The Lost World

2001: Harry Potter 1

2002: Spider-Man

2006: Dead Man's Chest (and in between this time it could be argued The Matrix Reloaded and Return of the King could have broken it - Same with Phantom Menace in 1999 cause it opened on Wednesday)

2007: Spider-Man 3

2008: The Dark Knight

2011: Harry Potter 8

2012: The Avengers

2015: Jurassic World / The Force Awakens

2018: Infinity War

 

In Almost 30 years the OW record hasn't last more than a little over 4 years.  SOMETHING is going to break it, maybe even a few times in the next 4-5 years. haha. At least that's my prediction based on this

Interesting that it's been sequels, comic book movies and adaptations have broken the record in the last two decades. 

[LonePirate]

Release a film that can make TFA’s PTA with AIW’s theater count and presto: new OW record!

[Cmasterclay]

Amazing so many people on the internet white knighting for a famous dude worth like 250 million dollars that they don't even know, when people they see everyday probably can't afford to see a doctor, lol

Edited April 30, 2018 by Cmasterclay

[TalismanRing]

28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

No one should make that much money for anything on the planet as long as millions of kids go to bed hungry every night in America alone. He seems like a fine guy but why in the world does anyone need that much money? No one needs 10 million in their entire lifetime, much less 100 million for one movie. 

Yes, he should let Disney have most of it.    He makes that much money because he makes a ton more for the company he works for.    The same company that was happy to get away with paying him $400k for the first Iron Man when they were the one's holding the stick.

 

If it makes you feel better he does a TON of charity - donates a lot and raises a lot and works a lot with community organizations.

 

 

[Sam]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Amazing so many people on the internet white knighting for a famous dude worth like 250 million dollars that they don't even know, when people they see everyday probably can't afford to see a doctor, lol

Stop making a literal no issues into some moral bullshit just cause people tell you to not immediately believe tabloid articles with no discernible sources to back it up.

 

Sheesh. 

 

I like you but this is ridiculous hyperbole and you know it.

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

Yes, he should let Disney have most of it.    He makes that much money because he makes a ton more for the company he works for.    The same company that was happy to get away with paying him $400k for the first Iron Man when they were the one's holding the stick.

 

If it makes you feel better he does a TON of charity - donates a lot and raises a lot and works a lot with community organizations.

 

 

Individuals AND corporations should not be allowed to make that much money. There's literally no reason for it. I've been pretty damn vocal on these boards how sick Disney's merger/money hoarding makes me. 

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, jaybox said:

Everything you say make's sense.....But if you go back looking at the trends of US opening weekends...Something is going to break it in under 5 years.  I'm going off memory here but let's see the OW Records Since 1989:

 

1989: Ghostbusters 2 / Batman (didn't The Last Crusade break it too? i forget)

1992: Batman Returns

1993: Jurassic Park

1995 Batman Forever 

1997: The Lost World

2001: Harry Potter 1

2002: Spider-Man

2006: Dead Man's Chest (and in between this time it could be argued The Matrix Reloaded and Return of the King could have broken it - Same with Phantom Menace in 1999 cause it opened on Wednesday)

2007: Spider-Man 3

2008: The Dark Knight

2011: Harry Potter 8

2012: The Avengers

2015: Jurassic World / The Force Awakens

2018: Infinity War

 

In Almost 30 years the OW record hasn't lasted more than a little over 4 years.  SOMETHING is going to break it, maybe even a few times in the next 4-5 years. haha. At least that's my prediction based on this

 

BOM has a good chart that follows it the history.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/pastrecords.htm

 

You are correct that Indy 3 set a record in 1989. It was a Wednesday opener and Ghostbusters II barely beat the 3-day number for Indy. I think Indy would have opened around $35m as a Friday opener. Batman also had Thursday previews excluded from its weekend total and was almost $43m after Sunday. Very impressive compared to the other two record breakers in 1989.

 

I would say the 3 record breakers in 1989 and the 3 mega openers in May 2007 are the most similar situations to what we saw very recently with Last Jedi, Black Panther, and Infinity War.

[Kraken]

Amazing that people on the internet act as if Disney's shareholders are poor starving children to hold on to some strawman argument, lol

[Lordmandeep]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Amazing so many people on the internet white knighting for a famous dude worth like 250 million dollars that they don't even know, when people they see everyday probably can't afford to see a doctor, lol

 

 

Thats the fault of govt not Iron Man 

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, Sam said:

Stop making a literal no issues into some moral bullshit just cause people tell you to not immediately believe tabloid articles with no discernible sources to back it up.

 

Sheesh. 

 

I like you but this is ridiculous hyperbole and you know it.

Oh I don't necessarily believe the article at all. I don't think he should even be making 10 million dollars. That's a general point. Doesn't make me think he's evil or all rich actors or athletes that I love are evil, I just fundamentally believe that no one should have that much money, whether it's 10 million a movie or 100 million. And the same goes triply for corporations - Disney should be re-invest most of the money for this back into projects/employee payments (which much of it does go to!) and pay the rest in taxes, not hoard it or give bonuses. 

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Amazing so many people on the internet white knighting for a famous dude worth like 250 million dollars that they don't even know, when people they see everyday probably can't afford to see a doctor, lol

Because your stance doesn't make any sense in our current realty.  Why do people always blame entertainers or athletes for making a lot of money as if the Billionaires paying them are undergoing some hardship and would give that money to the poor and struggling instead.

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, Kraken said:

Amazing that people on the internet act as if Disney's shareholders are poor starving children to hold on to some strawman argument, lol

Dude, you're really missing the point. Disney should not make the money they make either. All that money should be redistributed back into society.

 

Enough politics, this is off track. I just don't like the argument "oh, he only made 10 million instead of 100 million, that's okay"