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Asyulus

INCREDIBLES 2 Weekend |🏆| ACTUALS: 182.7M OW | O8 19M, Tag 14.9M, Solo 10M, DP2 8.7M, IW 5.4M

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1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I still think JWFK is coast by $400M+ DOM rather easily. Won't touch JW but never doubt the dinos. People love that shit.

Maybe it's because I didn't enjoy JW: FK that much. It was a letdown for me. We'll see.

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Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

Even if it's pretty frontloaded so far as animated movies go, it should still easily clear $150M+ OW DOM.

Even with a Homecoming multiple it ends at about $140M OW.

 

Personally, I’m thinking around $145M-$165M.

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2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

@WrathOfHan

 

New Grinch trailer views are trash btw. 355K in just a day lol

At first I thought Grinch would have the chance of doing $400M, seriously wondering if it could miss $200M now. (Them again Illumination is known for their aggressive marketing)

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Man I look like a dumbass predicting 365 for Incredibles over past year (bumped to 390 this week). Whoops. This has been a year of extreme highs (Black Panther, Deadpool 2, Solo) and extreme lows (Avengers, Incredibles) for me. 

 

I do think this is going to be significantly more frontloaded than Dory - previews started so early and alot of adults I know my age are treating this shit like a regular ass blockbuster, not like an animated movie. Big rush factor, very much a franchise film. But even with that caveat....should do at least 160m based off that number. Yeesh.

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Totally anecdotal but don't discount Jurassic World. I was getting my hair done at someone's house yesterday who has 3 kids from around 9-12 and a commercial for Incredibles 2 came on. I was telling them about how I loved the first one and how I was excited to see the sequel and they hadn't even seen the first Incredibles and were looking more forward to Jurassic World lmao 

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1 minute ago, BK007 said:

Is it like this on all fanboy OWs? 

 

Just setting yourselves up for disappointment. 

18.5m is massive and unprecedented, yes, but $200m OW? 

 

As maintained before, anything above $110m is great. Obviously it's not gonna be so frontloaded now, but it will be frontloaded more than people think. 

$ 200M is not overestimating, It will need a 10.8x multiplier, which is already more frontloaded than all animated movies (even Dory manage a 14.6x)

 

$ 150 - 160M will demand just 8.1 - 8.6x, closer to Marvel multipliers... obviously It will be frontloaded, but i don’t think It will be frontloaded like a Marvel movie 

 

I also don’t expect $ 200M, but It has a good shot

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7 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

$600-650m domestic would require around $700m OS. Very unlikely.

If this opens to $200m DOM we can't excluse $700m DOM and it's out opening FD in every market atm FD did $550m OS so it could do $650m - $700m

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26 minutes ago, Royce said:

But I thought Incredibles were nowhere near as popular as the Nemo franchise?

I was 12 when the incredibles came out and it stuck with me way more than finding nemo did. The opening alone, with the guy upset he was saved from his suicide against his will, had me shook in a way nemo never did. I would say my interest for a sequel was about 10 times as much for incredibles than finding nemo. This is going to blow dory out of the fucking water.

 

And not to make everything about solo, byt...i thought the people in charge of that failure wanted me to think audiences had no money left for another blockbuster so soon?!

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36 minutes ago, pepsa said:

@Ethan Hunt So this means we won't see you till the next MI? :(

 

Btw insane numbers, another disney movie about superheroes that will blow everything away. Great number.

This is going to be one hack of a ride!

Correct. Effective Monday I will not post until the Thursday of Mission Impossible: Fallout's previews

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So, I guess the 1st Incredibles movie was more popular than Finding Nemo. 18.5M is pretty great for any movie but for an animated movie, that's just nuts. It is going to be ahead of Solo by the end of this weekend only :P

 

Also Disney can have 4 600M+ DOM grossers in 7 months. If the OW is ~200M, this may even do more than AIW DOM because for animated movies 3X multis are common and 3.5 is not out of the range as shown by Finding Dory only.

 

3 movies with more than 1.3B WW gross in 4 months is a possibility and all of them are by the same studio.

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Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

At first I thought Grinch would have the chance of doing $400M, seriously wondering if it could miss $200M now. (Them again Illumination is known for their aggressive marketing)

Grinch feels like it's falling more and more into the Solo camp of "Who asked for this?", without any interesting hook as time goes on.

 

We already got two other enormously popular adaptations; an animated one that's beloved and airs every Christmas, and a movie one that's considered fine and also airs every Christmas. Doesn't help stuff like Ralph and Beasts have strong trailer views and better hooks to make audiences interested.

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3 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Correct. Effective Monday I will not post until the Thursday of Mission Impossible: Fallout's previews

And why did you make this bet? I didn't get the intention?

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