KINS Weekend Thread: 3 Day estimates: CRA make crazy rich #s with $22.2 million, TM Chomps On $10.5 million, M:IF doesn’t fall with $7 million, OF $6 million, Searching finds $5.7 million, KIN does $3 million.

[CoolioD1]

mission impossible 7 willl end up below $200 mil because it's an odd numbered mission impossible film.

[lilmac]

YTD 2018 compared to prior years: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?view2=ytdcompare&view=releasedate&p=.htm

 

 

and then here are upcoming releases: https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule

Despite the strong YTD performance of 2018 (10.2% ahead of 2017), 3.5% ahead of 2016), we could actually fall behind 2017 come Dec 31st. There are films this fall/winter that will certainly do well but no blockbusters like Star Wars that will move the needle and get us to the $11 billion mark. Maybe I'm missing something....

 

[Legion Again]

36 minutes ago, lilmac said:

Correct.  I only bring it up because people often say August is weak because the films released in August are weak. The outlook may not be so grim when you consider how late July releases could inject alot of cash into August. Something to consider. Besides the point that August is the lowest of the summer months when taking into account cash receipts regardless of the film releases.

 

But to the original point, interestingly, Infinity War was the top April movie in one sense and the top May movie in another.

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/monthly/?view=releasedate&chart=bymonth&month=5&view=releasedate

 

This jus made me realize that by calendar gross, we had 6 months in a row of the top movie of the month being a Disney SH flick:   

Feb BP

March BP

April IW

May IW 

June I2 

July AM&TW 

[cookie]

Does I2 have enough gas for $1.2b? I see Germany and Italy are left.

 

Edit: Going off Finding Dory $1.225b is possible. Frozen remains out of reach though.

Edited September 2, 2018 by cookie

[Ezen Baklattan]

43 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Slender man is not having bad legs. Guess that’s the benefit of this release schedule 

Friday and Saturday is really saving it. Somehow the damn thing had the third biggest increase on Friday of any film that didn’t gain a lot of theaters.

[m3racer123]

2 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

In the past 8 months, Disney has released four films that have topped $600m DOM. I don't think we will see that again. 

Four of these films could do it, never underestimate Disney. Not to mention Captain Marvel in March as well.

Untitled Avengers	5/3/19
Aladdin (2019)	5/24/19
Toy Story 4	6/21/19
The Lion King (2019)	7/19/19
Artemis Fowl	8/9/19
Jungle Cruise	10/11/19
Frozen 2	11/27/19
Star Wars: Episode IX	12/20/19

[Celedhring]

31 minutes ago, m3racer123 said:

Four of these films could do it, never underestimate Disney. Not to mention Captain Marvel in March as well.

Untitled Avengers	5/3/19
Aladdin (2019)	5/24/19
Toy Story 4	6/21/19
The Lion King (2019)	7/19/19
Artemis Fowl	8/9/19
Jungle Cruise	10/11/19
Frozen 2	11/27/19
Star Wars: Episode IX	12/20/19

Club-worthy, I'd say. Avengers should be a shoe-in for 600+ barring an (unexpected) bad reception. Lion King and Ep IX should get there if their reception and pre-release buildup is good enough. Toy Story 4 and Frozen 2 are the biggest outliers at the moment, imho. 

 

I'm really surprised to see them releasing Aladdin and Lion King within two months, incidentally.

[BugsBunny]

2 hours ago, lilmac said:

YTD 2018 compared to prior years: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?view2=ytdcompare&view=releasedate&p=.htm

 

 

and then here are upcoming releases: https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/release-schedule

Despite the strong YTD performance of 2018 (10.2% ahead of 2017), 3.5% ahead of 2016), we could actually fall behind 2017 come Dec 31st. There are films this fall/winter that will certainly do well but no blockbusters like Star Wars that will move the needle and get us to the $11 billion mark. Maybe I'm missing something....

 

Less than zero chance of this.

 

September + October is going to be bigger than last year, possibly by a lot, so we are going to gain more ground on 2017 over the next 60 days.

 

We could be nearly $1bn over 2017 going into November, so to miss $11bn you'd have to have November and December down 50%, or in other words to roughly match the box office $ of 1995. 

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, BugsBunny said:

September + October is going to be bigger than last year, possibly by a lot, so we are going to gain more ground on 2017 over the next 60 days.

 

2017 September was the biggest of all time because of It and oct-to-dec(Q4), was also the biggest of all time undadjusted, Last Jedi, Thor 3, Justice League, Coco, Jumanji, Wonder doing all very well. Bad October too, making it possible.

 

15 minutes ago, BugsBunny said:

Less than zero chance of this.

 

Close to the truth I think.

It would require 2018 to make less than 2,773m to finish below 2017, 2018 advance on 2017 is of 767m.

 

The sep3 to end of the year of the recent past:

$3,539.80

$3,362.10

$3,519.80

$3,105.70

$3,248.60

2,772 would be quite bad, easy to see 2018 loose from it's advance, but to end up lower in total sound pessimistic.

 

 

 

[SteveJaros]

3 hours ago, Barnack said:

When people are interested into the Top movies of the year's, that what they want to known.

 

Imagine the 900m Force Awaken would not be the top movie of any year:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view=calendargross&view2=domestic&yr=2015&p=.htm

651 vs 652 for Jurassic World.

 

I am quite unsure what the interest would be into knowing the box office of a particular movie in calendar year, in release, re-release that make sense and so on, but how much Star wars made before december 31 at midnight vs after ?

 

Interestingly, if "top movie of year" was based on dollars earned in a calendar year, in 2015 TFA would have finished #2 to Jurassic World, but just barely. JW made $652m during 2015, as of the end of December 31st, TFA was at $651m, yep just a million behind. 

 

Edited September 2, 2018 by SteveJaros

[Jonwo]

I assume WB has cracked $1bn at the domestic box office either today or tomorrow. 

 

 

Edited September 3, 2018 by Jonwo

[DAR]

Congrats to Incredibles 2 on crossing 600 million.   

[Zakiyyah6]

600mil and a near 3.3 multi.

[aabattery]

Is there any other year that has had three new entries into the top ten of all-time (domestically)?

[lilmac]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

Is there any other year that has had three new entries into the top ten of all-time (domestically)?

Incredible right!? 1994 had two (Gump and Lion King). 

 

Next year might see four (Lion King remake, Ep 9, Avengers 4, Toy Story 4)

Edited September 3, 2018 by lilmac

[aabattery]

Just had a look and 2015 had three. There's been several years with two as well (2017 with BATB and TLJ, 2016 with RO and FD, 2012 with TA and TDKR etc etc).

 

Kinda uncanny how similar it is to 2015 actually, with two new entries into the top five and another slotting in at #9

[Webslinger]

My initial instinct was to say that 2012 had three entrants in the all-time domestic top ten, but The Hunger Games fell short. That was the first year with three films over $400 million apiece, however.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, aabattery said:

Is there any other year that has had three new entries into the top ten of all-time (domestically)?

Could be mistake with re-release and obviously missing earlier year but 1977, 1984, 2002, 2004, 2015 seem to have done it.

 

1977

star wars

annie hall

close encounter

 

1984

Beberly hills cop

Ghostbuster

Indiana jones

 

2002 

Spider-Man

2 towers

Star wars 2

 

2004

Shrek 2

Spider Man 3

Passion of the christ

 

2015

Awaken

Jurassic World

Ultron

 

I simply looked with excel for movies that had 9 or less of them above them in the all time list that were released in previous year, so it could have some mix up, with just a quick check. Maybe Star wars 2 in reality missed it and showed has one with the 3D re-release for example. Did find a for 4 entries.

 

Edited September 3, 2018 by Barnack

[Barnack]

49 minutes ago, aabattery said:

There's been several years with two as well (2017 with BATB and TLJ, 2016 with RO and FD, 2012 with TA and TDKR etc etc).

For 2 you have:

 

1999 (Star wars, sixth sense)

 

Sixth sense was still in he top 15 in 2002, quite crazy:

https://web.archive.org/web/20021202080632/https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm

 

2001:

Potter/Lord of the rings

 

2003:

https://web.archive.org/web/20040604193553/https://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/domestic.htm

Lords of the rings, Nemo

 

Yeah Star wars 2 didn<t made the top 10 at the time:

https://web.archive.org/web/20030407085536/http://www.boxofficemojo.com:80/alltime/domestic.htm

 

It<s released tricked my automated way to check.

Edited September 3, 2018 by Barnack

[Legion Again]

2 movies make top 10: 2017, 2016, 2012, 2009 (Avatar and Transformers 2), 2003 (RotK, Nemo), 2002 (Spider-Man, Two Towers), 2001 (Sorcerer’s Stone, Fellowship of the Ring), 1999 (Phantom Menace, Sixth Sense), 1994 (Forest Gump, TLK), 1982 (ET, tootsie)

3 movies make top 10:  2018, 2015, 2004 (Shrek 2, Spider-Man 2, Passion of the Christ),     

 

1990 had 2 movies that each made the top 10, but never simultaneously — Home Alone bumped Ghost down to 11th when it entered. Likewise, 1984 had 3 movies make 10 but never simultaneously, as Beverly Hills Cop bumped Temple of Doom to 11.       

 

 

The closest a year has even been to 4 in the top 10 seems to be 1984, when Gremlins got it to 4 in the top 16.

 

 

Edited September 3, 2018 by Thanos Legion