Weekend Thread 12/28-12/30 AQM 51.5 MPR 28 BB 20.5 ITSV 18.3

[boyamama]

4 minutes ago, DAR said:

Did you confuse Bumblebee and Spidey?

ooppss..but still more likely them both will only touch break even or small profit.....lol

 

btw MPR isn't flop from start,it's just over-estimated w/ 400M DOM ++...

[MrGlass2]

3 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

the opposite of the show, emilia clarke's blockbuster career died so that jason momoa's could live.

Far from it, she was great in Solo and the movie is in good company.

 

19	Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again	Uni.	$393.8	$120.6	30.6%	$273.2	69.4%
20	Solo: A Star Wars Story	BV	$392.9	$213.8	54.4%	$179.2	45.6%
21	A Star is Born (2018)	WB	$388.7	$201.0	51.7%	$187.7	48.3%

[WrathOfHan]

13 minutes ago, Tau Ceti said:

Where do you think its theatre count goes from here? Do they push into the 1,200 range or are we at the high water mark?

 

It's fantastic to see Lanthimos bank a modest profit -- it means we'll get more of him.

 

Of the arthouse films in play for Oscars, I like it best as a dark horse because the performances are so clutch. See what happens at the GGs.

It'll probably hit high-1,000s like Three Billboards did. IDK if it can get the 2,300 Shape of Water had, but being one of the main Oscar contenders will help boost its TC along with January being empty as hell.

[Jay Beezy]

4 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Far from it, she was great in Solo and the movie is in good company.

 

19	Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again	Uni.	$393.8	$120.6	30.6%	$273.2	69.4%
20	Solo: A Star Wars Story	BV	$392.9	$213.8	54.4%	$179.2	45.6%
21	A Star is Born (2018)	WB	$388.7	$201.0	51.7%	$187.7	48.3%

You know you can’t compare Solo to those. Those movies were profitable.

[Mulder]

I don't think anyone'll seriously blame Emilia Clarke for Solo, Alden Ehnreich is in more trouble there but even then Michael B. Jordan survived Fan4stic.

[PanaMovie]

Aquaman over Suicide Squad DOM?

[kitik]

The Most Anticipated Movies thread is basically at the point where we're looking for your top 10 of 2019.

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/667-box-office-theorys-most-anticipated-films/?page=359

 

So what movies are you looking forward to the most next year? Avengers? Star Wars? Toy Story? NEW MUTANTS???!!!!!!

 

Head over and share your top 10.

[WrathOfHan]

More forecasting:

 

The Mule: 

Remainder of this week: 9.8M (70.5M Total)

Jan 4: 6.1M (2.7M weekdays, 79.3M Total)

Jan 11: 2.5M (1.6M weekdays, 83.4M Total)

Jan 18: 1.4M (900k weekdays, 85.7M Total)

Jan 25: 800k (500k weekdays, 87M Total)

Final Total: 90M (5.14x)

 

I expect this to start behaving like Book Club once the holidays are over. It'll have some harsh weekend drops, but the weekday holds will be very strong. 100M probably won't happen unless it manages those weekdays and better weekends, but this is still a great total.

 

Vice:

Remainder of this week: 7.2M (24.9M Total)

Jan 4: 6.5M (2.7M weekdays, 34.1M Total)

Jan 11: 4.9M (2.2M weekdays, 41.2M Total)
Jan 18: 4.5M (1.6M weekdays, 47.3M Total)

Jan 25: 3.5M (1.8M weekdays, 52.6M Total)

Feb 1: 3.2M (1.3M weekdays, 57.1M Total)

Feb 8: 2.3M (1.4M weekdays, 61.8M Total)

Feb 15: 1.5M (700k weekdays, 64M Total)

Feb 22: 1.5M (700k weekdays, 66.2M Total)

Mar 1: 900k (300k weekdays, 67.4M Total)

Final Total: 69M (3.9x from 6 day/8.85x from 3 day)

 

I really have no idea what to expect from Vice's legs. 22% of the audience is under 25, so this won't quite behave like something as The Post in terms of day to day holds. When you add in the seniors who come for the awards buzz (even though that is the demo with the worst WOM for it), that probably means mid-60s Monday drops. A Best Picture nomination would inflate this even more, which I am currently predicting to happen. If this total happens and it has a similar OS share as The Big Short did, Annapurna should be in the green.

 

Second Act:

Remainder of this week: 6.1M (27.9M Total)

Jan 4: 5.4M (1.7M weekdays, 35M Total)

Jan 11: 2.7M (900k weekdays, 38.6M Total)

Jan 18: 1.1M (300k weekdays, 40M Total)

Final Total: 42M (6.46x)

 

This is going to start dropping theaters very quickly on the 11th, but this will be a nice profit for STX.

 

Holmes and Watson:

Remainder of this week: 4.5M (24.2M Total)

Jan 4: 2.5M (600k weekdays, 27.3M Total)

Jan 11: 600k (200k weekdays, 28.1M Total)

Final Total: 29M (1.47x from 6 day/3.97x from 3 day)

 

lmao, this movie's floppage is something to behold

[CoolioD1]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Vice:

Final Total: 69M (3.9x from 6 day/8.85x from 3 day)

 

more like Nice.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, CoolioD1 said:

more like Nice.

[babz06]

1 hour ago, Tau Ceti said:

Where do you think its theatre count goes from here? Do they push into the 1,200 range or are we at the high water mark?

 

It's fantastic to see Lanthimos bank a modest profit -- it means we'll get more of him.

 

Of the arthouse films in play for Oscars, I like it best as a dark horse because the performances are so clutch. See what happens at the GGs.

I think they will go over 1200 theaters after Golden Globe awards, probably the weekend of January 11-13.  

 

 

 

[Napoleon]

32 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Second Act:

Remainder of this week: 6.1M (27.9M Total)

Jan 4: 5.4M (1.7M weekdays, 35M Total)

Jan 11: 2.7M (900k weekdays, 38.6M Total)

Jan 18: 1.1M (300k weekdays, 40M Total)

Final Total: 42M (6.46x)

 

This is going to start dropping theaters very quickly on the 11th, but this will be a nice profit for STX.

The movie cost less than $16 million but foreign sales covered half of the budget, so real cost for STX is around $8 million. If your projection is right that means it will make 5.25x its cost. That's like Aquaman making $1 billion domestic.

[aabattery]

4 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

That's like Aquaman making $1 billion domestic.

 

[JB33]

So when are we going to get AQUAMAN actuals from....last weekend? 

[MrGlass2]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

So when are we going to get AQUAMAN actuals from....last weekend? 

The numbers are so big, it will take at least a few more days to count all the money coming in.

 

[Fielding]

7 hours ago, Slambros said:

And I'm not sure about Stan & Ollie and Destroyer's platform openings. I think they're average? Not too glaring but not too concerning? Now that I think about it, I think Destroyer should declare and ramp up towards a wide January release. It seems like a film that'd have a solid January wide release debut, one similar to something like 12 Strong and Den of Thieves from last year. I know they were trying to get Kidman an Oscar nomination but the film would've still benefited from a wide January release... Plus, that would've ramped up Kidman's supporting actress chances (maybe).

Nah, they're both very poor debuts. But what fun to see all these awards-baity films crash and burn!

[Newland Archer]

4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Some forecasts:

 

Aquaman:

Remainder of this week: 47.7M (236.5M Total)

Jan 4: 32.5M (9.6M weekdays, 278.5M Total)

Jan 11: 18M (6.2M weekdays, 302.7M Total)

Jan 18: 9.2M (3.5M weekdays, 315.4M Total)

Jan 25: 4.7M (1.8M weekdays, 321.9M Total)

Feb 1: 3.2M (1.1M weekdays, 326.2M Total)

Feb 8: 1.8M (800k weekdays, 328.8M Total)

Feb 15: 1M (400k weekdays, 330.2M Total)

Feb 22: 400k (200k weekdays, 330.8M Total)

Final Total: 333M (4.58x with Prime)

 

This will more than likely surpass SS, but BVS depends on how much Glass hits it.

 

Mary Poppins:

Remainder of this week: 32M (130.9M Total)

Jan 4: 28.4M (7.6M weekdays, 166.9M Total)

Jan 11: 21.3M (5.2M weekdays, 193.4M Total)

Jan 18: 13.6M (7.8M weekdays, 214.8M Total)

Jan 25: 11.7M (3.1M weekdays, 229.6M Total)

Feb 1: 7.4M (2.2M weekdays, 239.2M Total)

Feb 8: 5.1M (1.9M weekdays, 246.2M Total)

Feb 15: 3.7M (2M weekdays, 253.9M Total)

Feb 22: 2.9M (800k weekdays, 257.6M Total)

Mar 1: 2M (600k weekdays, 260.2M Total)

Mar 8: 1.3M (400k weekdays, 261.9M Total)

Mar 15: 800k (300k weekdays, 263M Total)

Final Total: 267M (8.27x from 5 day/11.36x from 3 day)

 

So who's still calling this Mary Floppins? This is going to be in store for a sub-5% drop or an increase next weekend if it follows Parental Guidance. Even if something goes wrong with that comp, it still isn't dropping more than 15-20%. Very strong legs are in store as family competition is light until February, and by then, WOM will be strong as steel.

 

Bumblebee:

Remainder of this week: 16.9M (83.7M Total)

Jan 4: 14.2M (4.1M weekdays, 102M Total)

Jan 11: 9.8M (3.2M weekdays, 115M Total)

Jan 18: 7.3M (3.5M weekdays, 125.8M Total)

Jan 25: 5.5M (2M weekdays, 133.3M Total)

Feb 1: 3.8M (1.2M weekdays, 138.3M Total)

Feb 8: 2.6M (1.2M weekdays, 142.1M Total)

Feb 15: 1.4M (500k weekdays, 144M Total)

Feb 22: 600k (200k weekdays, 144.8M Total)

Final Total: 148M (6.82x)

 

IDK if this can hit 150M, but over The Last Knight should be assured.

 

Spider-Verse:

Remainder of this week: 15.8M (119.4M Total)

Jan 4: 12.4M (3.1M weekdays, 134.9M Total)

Jan 11: 8.9M (2.2M weekdays, 146M Total)

Jan 18: 5.2M (2.8M weekdays, 154M Total)

Jan 25: 4.4M (1.3M weekdays, 159.7M Total)

Feb 1: 2.8M (700k weekdays, 163.2M Total)

Feb 8: 1.6M (600k weekdays, 165.4M Total)

Feb 15: 800k (200k weekdays, 166.5M Total)

Final Total: 170M (4.8x)

 

This and Aquaman will be neck and neck with each other every weekend starting later in January. This will be the first of the big 4 Christmas releases to be dropped from theaters, but it will still end up in third (domestically) with a great total.

 

I'll do a few other movies in a bit.

Your predictions are (way) too optimistic.

[Newland Archer]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

More forecasting:

 

The Mule: 

Remainder of this week: 9.8M (70.5M Total)

Jan 4: 6.1M (2.7M weekdays, 79.3M Total)

Jan 11: 2.5M (1.6M weekdays, 83.4M Total)

Jan 18: 1.4M (900k weekdays, 85.7M Total)

Jan 25: 800k (500k weekdays, 87M Total)

Final Total: 90M (5.14x)

 

I expect this to start behaving like Book Club once the holidays are over. It'll have some harsh weekend drops, but the weekday holds will be very strong. 100M probably won't happen unless it manages those weekdays and better weekends, but this is still a great total.

 

Vice:

Remainder of this week: 7.2M (24.9M Total)

Jan 4: 6.5M (2.7M weekdays, 34.1M Total)

Jan 11: 4.9M (2.2M weekdays, 41.2M Total)
Jan 18: 4.5M (1.6M weekdays, 47.3M Total)

Jan 25: 3.5M (1.8M weekdays, 52.6M Total)

Feb 1: 3.2M (1.3M weekdays, 57.1M Total)

Feb 8: 2.3M (1.4M weekdays, 61.8M Total)

Feb 15: 1.5M (700k weekdays, 64M Total)

Feb 22: 1.5M (700k weekdays, 66.2M Total)

Mar 1: 900k (300k weekdays, 67.4M Total)

Final Total: 69M (3.9x from 6 day/8.85x from 3 day)

 

I really have no idea what to expect from Vice's legs. 22% of the audience is under 25, so this won't quite behave like something as The Post in terms of day to day holds. When you add in the seniors who come for the awards buzz (even though that is the demo with the worst WOM for it), that probably means mid-60s Monday drops. A Best Picture nomination would inflate this even more, which I am currently predicting to happen. If this total happens and it has a similar OS share as The Big Short did, Annapurna should be in the green.

 

Second Act:

Remainder of this week: 6.1M (27.9M Total)

Jan 4: 5.4M (1.7M weekdays, 35M Total)

Jan 11: 2.7M (900k weekdays, 38.6M Total)

Jan 18: 1.1M (300k weekdays, 40M Total)

Final Total: 42M (6.46x)

 

This is going to start dropping theaters very quickly on the 11th, but this will be a nice profit for STX.

 

Holmes and Watson:

Remainder of this week: 4.5M (24.2M Total)

Jan 4: 2.5M (600k weekdays, 27.3M Total)

Jan 11: 600k (200k weekdays, 28.1M Total)

Final Total: 29M (1.47x from 6 day/3.97x from 3 day)

 

lmao, this movie's floppage is something to behold

Way too optimistic also, borderline insane for Vice. Too pessimistic for The Mule.

[Newland Archer]

Aquaman will be lucky to get to 300, Poppins to 200, Bumblebee to 120, Spiderverse to 150, Vice to 40...

[katniss]

36 minutes ago, Newland Archer said:

Aquaman will be lucky to get to 300, Poppins to 200, Bumblebee to 120, Spiderverse to 150, Vice to 40...

lol Aquaman is locked for 300 million.  It's gonna be over 240 AT MINIMUM by next Sunday.  You have to be trolling if you think this won't make 60 million in the remaining 10 weeks of its box office run. lulz