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Eric Duncan

CAPTAIN MARVEL WEEKEND THREAD l $153M DOM (3rd-biggest March opening), $455M WW (6th biggest WW opening) l Other weekend #s: Dragon 14.7, Madea 12, Lego 3.8, Alita 3.2

By Eric Duncan, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Rthmessiah,

From earlier, CM 63-65m  not looking much different to DL early est 
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Posted by Rthmessiah,

Going with sat CM 53, HTTYD3 6.670m,MFF 5.7, LM 1.8m, ABA 1.4m
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jedijake Box Office Gold

jedijake

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

RT Audience starts at 59%

Of course it did. There were the same people ready to pounce once the audience score was open. We knew this was going to happen, right? It shouldn't be a surprise.

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

So RT audience starts at 59%  in flixster app

Flixter:

Quote

discover movies at home and get Rotten Tomatoes®...

 

4 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

that could be the remains of the Want-to-see... thing

 

9 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

RT Audience starts at 59%

 

see above

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2kt09 Indie Sensation

2kt09

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I'd argue it helped the idea of making women in mainstream tentpole action movies as leads I think. If THG and especially CF didn't land, Lucasfilm probably wouldn't have created Rey or Jyn Erso, and DC probably wouldn't have fast-tracked Wonder Woman after decades of developoment hell

Fun fact: In that same year Underworld & RE sequels were released + Kristen Stewart was in two separate action fantasy flicks.

Wonder what the next stable YA series is going to be.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted

Okay, I got really optimistic earlier today b/c of presales and sets, but now I am also seeing very few last minute walk ups (like last hour before showing) for showings in my area...there's SO MANY showings, that the abundance of 50% sold ones should still deliver a high number, but not as high as I might have expected at 1pm...now, I'm swinging back to the middle I had Tuesday:)...(I have been all over the place with this movie, so anywhere between $118M and $179M DOM OW, I can say I called it at some point:)...

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

Might as well pop this in here as well, since it's on topic:

 

====

 

(xpost with the Tracking thread)

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [5:30pm - 6:30pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL theaters with six or less seats left)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

8

216

9439

19992

52.79%

 

Total Sellouts Since 1pm:                       7
Total Showings Added Since 1pm:       14

Total Seats Added Since 1pm:           845

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             1520

 

1.1271x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at final report.               (=28.4 Thr)

.6939x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at final report.                     (=27.1 Thr)

1.1231x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at final report.                  (=20.9 Thr)

1.5778x as many tickets sold as Solo at final report.                             (=22.2 Thr)

1.4667x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 at final report.            (=22.4 Thr)

1.9835x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp at final report. (=22.2 Thr)

2.1582x as many tickets sold as Venom at final report.                          (=21.5 Thr)

1.9003x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 at final report.         (=17.3 Thr)

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see the second spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town.

 

More detailed Final comps (Spoilered for space):

Spoiler

BP:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

26

136

3377

11481

70.59%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):     1232

 

IW:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

59

182

1995

15159

86.84%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):       878


DP2:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

3

169

8357

16490

49.32%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):     1262

 

Solo:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

5

143

7732

13521

42.81%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm(ish):       486

 

JW2:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

147

7487

13715

45.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:           1275

 

AM&tW:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

114

6515

11120

41.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1070

 

Venom

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

127

8736

13229

33.96%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1012

 

FB2:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

135

10784

15887

32.12%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             756

 

CM (adj)*:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

8

216

7288

1642

55.62%

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

Further CM (adj) info:

Total Sellouts Added Since 1pm:             7

Total Showings Added Since 1pm:        14

Total Seats Added Since 1pm:             845 

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:              1219

 

Extra BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

A comp without the new theater in town, for a pure like-for-like comparison:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [5:30pm - 6:30 pm]

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

7

205

6884

14923

54.00%

 

Total Sellouts Since 1pm:                      6
Total Showings Added Since 1pm:       14

Total Seats Added Since 1pm:           845

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             1099

 

.9944x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at final report.

 

============

 

For the record, 5 showings for a total of 19 tickets sold were manually adjusted for showings with six seats or left.  Before the adjustment, the count was as follows:

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

3

216

9458

19992

52.69%

Edited by Porthos
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FlashMaster659 Box Office Gold

FlashMaster659

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Might as well pop this in here as well, since it's on topic:

 

====

 

(xpost with the Tracking thread)

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [5:30pm - 6:30pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL theaters with six or less seats left)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

8

216

9439

19992

52.79%

 

Total Sellouts Since 1pm:                       7
Total Showings Added Since 1pm:       14

Total Seats Added Since 1pm:           845

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             1520

 

1.1271x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at final report.               (=28.4 Thr)

.6939x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at final report.                     (=27.1 Thr)

1.1231x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at final report.                  (=20.9 Thr)

1.5778x as many tickets sold as Solo at final report.                             (=22.2 Thr)

1.4667x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 at final report.            (=22.4 Thr)

1.9835x as many tickets sold as Ant-Man and the Wasp at final report. (=22.2 Thr)

2.1582x as many tickets sold as Venom at final report.                          (=21.5 Thr)

1.9003x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 at final report.         (=17.3 Thr)

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see the second spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town.

 

More detailed Final comps (Spoilered for space):

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Extra BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

============

 

For the record, 5 showings for a total of 19 tickets sold were manually adjusted for showings with six seats or left.  Before the adjustment, the count was as follows:

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

3

216

9458

19992

52.69%

What would be your preview # prediction?

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

What would be your preview # prediction?

23 to 24, I think.  Though here in Sacramento, contra to what @TwoMisfits saw locally, there were a LOT of walkups and near sellouts.

 

So I won't be catching sales in the last 30 minutes. Or anything for the evening showings, obviously. :)

 

Like, at my stop of tracking (at 6:30 local time) 54 out of 189 theaters with reserved seating info were at two rows or less (or the equivalent).  And that's not counting the 8 sellouts.

 

I didn't track "Tele Sellouts", but there were a LOT of showings at more than six seats left, but only around 1 row of seats left (or the equivalent) or less. 

 

I mean, even adjusted when taking out the extra sources of tracking, I had over 1200 tickets sold in a 5+ hour window locally.

 

Only reason I'm not saying over 25m is the sheer number of shows we have locally.  That and my other comps pointing to 22m (FB2 HELLA over-performed locally, throwing off the comp).

 

So I'll compromise and say 23 to 24.

 

...

 

And if it is 22?  Means I should trust my data more. :lol:

Edited by Porthos
Forgot to add showings that had 90% or more sold out to the Front Two Rows or less total. Now 54 instead of 47
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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

@porthos final updates number poi t to 22-23m Thursday. Will RTH grace us tonight? 

RTH doesn’t give out preview numbers so we gotta wait for Deadline to hopefully give us an update but make sure to add like $5M to whatever number they give us 

Edited by Nova
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FlashMaster659 Box Office Gold

FlashMaster659

Posted
Posted
Just now, nguyenkhoi282 said:

How do you see the percentage on MT? I thought they ditched the feature

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/MT_track.txt

  

2019-03-08 02:00:33.896074 UTC
1	84.9%	Captain Marvel
2	4.2%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
3	2%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
4	0.8%	Alita: Battle Angel
5	0.8%	Green Book
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