US WEEKEND THREAD: Record 70.25 OW (highest grossing OW for an original horror)

[MrPink]

28 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

I have no idea why I'm surprised that some BOT members are calling $6m in previews disappointing.

 

Yes, I know you are saying its disappointing relative of presales, but it's still a non-sequel, we can't just assume all the tickets were bought for Thursday night.  

 

I blame TOG for togging the expectations 

[YM!]

So know we saying $60M for US, which is fucking ginormous for an original IP, and huge for Peele, a disappointment, even though these are just early guesstimates and have the potential to go up and down.

[reddevil19]

I'm afraid to even read through these pages. That's an objectively great number, given realistic expectations and tracking. But I expect there will be some very wild reactions in here.

 

So, fully admitting that I am not reading the comments and acknowledging that I may be underestimating the level-headed nature of the BOT members, I will simply say congrats to Peele for yet another tremendous box office result. Anything above 40 million is tremendous, and 60+ is out of this world for an original movie and only further cements Peele as an attractive auteur. Can't help but wonder when he'll take on a big budget franchise production.

[Stewart]

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

Feasby promised me an OW of at least 4x the budget, and anything below that is a shocking failure, no ifs, ands, or buts 

I see the frequent "I took your post as gospel" is coming back to blame....

 

I just said (albeit a little aggressively, sorry) that the presales on Wednesday suggested that anything below ~80M would be surprising. The key thing there is SUGGESTED.

 

• Was there a guarantee this will do over 80M? Of course not.
• Does this mean anything under 80M is "disappointing"? Hell no, anything over 40M is an overperformance given the context.
• Should we cry about it if this does come under 80M? No, no, no. What we take away from this (as @filmlover and others have said) is that Fandango is getting more and more presale heavy. Whether this is due to reserved seating, more theaters connected to Fandango, changes in consumer habits or something else. 

Overall, over 50M is absolutely fantastic for this full stop. BUT, this indicates that presales are becoming heavier (either in general or for the genre). 

 

---

 

By the way, idc if you put the Venom face to indicate sarcasm, several people in this thread have already been very snarky and jabbing my post in the tracking thread. Frankly, I don't appreciate the fact that I did some work and actually calculated OW estimates based on data, but yet get bitchslapped for it. Yes, as I said, perhaps my extrapolation of the data wasn't the best. But at the end of the day it was still hard data, which is more likely to produce better results than several people "going with their gut". 

[stripe]

So funny to read the overreactions. And we still don't have a real number! Just guesses from Deadline. We all should know that we should take Deadline early guesses with a grain of salt. Even more when they are talking about Horror movies. We have seen them lowballing many horror films recently.

 

Us will do stellar numbers. Still headed for 60M+ OW for sure.

[Cooper Legion]

@feasby007 Yeah, Venom face for sarcasm (more precisely, what I intend with Venom face is generally “aggressively ridiculous”). That post was completely joking, sorry if you thought I was actually sniping at you. I’m very aware that there’s uncertainty involved in extrapolating from a couple days Fandango data to OW figures, especially as Fandango becomes more and more used over time, that no guarantees were made, and I appreciate when people put the time in to make posts with actual math even when the raw numerical output need to be taken with caveats 👍

Edited March 22, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Valonqar]

is there a reason why there's still no Spoiler Thread for this movie? Like, you literally cannot discuss this without spoiling and it's worth discussing. 

[Cooper Legion]

But like, the real narrative of the weekend is that Us is doing gangbusters. Considering it’s context, 50, 60, 70, whatever, huge success. And a success that’s been pretty easy to see coming for several days now. If not for satirizing bad takes I feel like there’s just not that much left to say.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

40 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

US: $60m opening weekend

 

BOT: ugh, what a terrible weekend, I can't believe it only tripled its budget!

What a Flop. Get Out did 8 times. 

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

What a Flop. Get Out did 8 times. 

Bet the legs will be awful, only 4x or something.

[That One Girl]

I just wanna say that just because Us doesn’t come close to my 100M OW prediction doesn’t mean I’m disappointed if the number ends up going lower.  Far from it.  Does it mean my club has a less chance of happening?  Sure, but the movie is still a massive success nonetheless.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Bet the legs will be awful, only 4x or something.

Just ban the Jordan guy from making films. His next will only match the budget in first weekend at this pace.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

I just wanna say that just because Us doesn’t come close to my 100M OW prediction doesn’t mean I’m disappointed if the number ends up going lower.  Far from it.  Does it mean my club has a less chance of happening?  Sure, but the movie is still a massive success nonetheless.

60mn would be great IMO. Almost double of Get Out when Get Out overperformed in first place.

Anyways it's not as bad as Alita Billie gang.

Edited March 22, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Lordmandeep]

And confused why people thought us would do a hundred million dollars.

 

 People were talking about how it is an original film but the reality is the reason it's opening so high it is because it is aspiritual successor to get out.

 

The issue is will it have great legs I think it should as the calendar is not populated with horror films

Edited March 22, 2019 by Lordmandeep

[Krissykins]

Hmm I wonder why Peele didn’t use Blumhouse for US. Must’ve wanted to do it purely through his own shingle, MonkeyPaw. 

[FilmBuff]

Glad to see the box office being ignited this month with Captain Marvel and Us! 

[Brainbug]

Anything over 30M OW has to be seen as a fantastic start for any original horror movie with this kind of reasonable budget. Period.

 

That Us has a very good chance to go 60M+ is nothing short of amazing.

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

Glad to see the box office being ignited this month with Captain Marvel and Us! 

Yeah, and a flying elephant soon to join.        

 

It’s going to demolish last March, when the top grosser was... BP, with 219M. And second place was 82M 

[The Panda]

We don’t even have a preview number yet lol

[filmlover]

Horror is killing it these days. Pet Semetary should also does well in two weeks and Ma (more of a thriller than a horror movie but it's from the Blumhouse brand) should fare well at the end of May.