Wednesday (5/16) Early Estimates.

[John Marston]

Not too fond at how Endgame is making less than Infinity War on the same day

 

 

hope with no Deadpool, it can have a better hold than IW fourth weekend 

[Jessie2]

If you guys dont let Shivampa back on these boards after that heartfelt apology, i'll come back and spoil the next big movie when you least suspect it. I'm a man of my woooooord, mwahaha

 

Toodles

[terrestrial]

Don't forget NIRD

[Horner]

44 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

If they give you another chance. It just opens up other ban posters coming with alts and apologizing and returning 

 

just doesn’t set a good precedent 

 

No it doesn't.  The fact that he managed to pull down suspensions and threadbans all along the way across at least 3 different alt accounts doesn't inspire a lot of confidence in the potential for future good behavior either.

 

Poisoning the well and vigorously stirring the pot afterwards is harmful enough to peaceful discourse all on it own without ever finding the need to target specific users.

Edited May 16, 2019 by Horner

[keysersoze123]

With 3.77 its unlikely for it to go above IW today since its losing iMax and PLF. Can it have a better increase. For past 2 fridays its  increase have been below IW but JW3 this friday would be less impactful than Deadpool 2 last year. Last saturday it increased slightly better than IW. With its 3 hour run time I definitely see it be a saturday and peak evening show movie until school is out.

 

One thing in its favor is that this is the last week it has iMax. Would that cause people to check it out this weekend. It still does great in peak iMax shows in major theaters. My range for end game this weekend would be 27-31 (high end needs good thursday hold). Low end means 12-13% thursday drop and slightly below IW friday drop.

[Jessie2]

1 hour ago, tawasal said:

I mean everywhere else too.

 

Where I am from originally 99% of the population in my country know about him and his movies and it’s with a population around 15m-20m in an Africa country. 

Before i delete my account i had to just say how wrong you are, you wouldn't find a single person here who even recognizes his name

[dashrendar44]

So Hulk snapped back Shivampa and Jessie too instead of who you know?  I don't see that as an absolute win, Banner.

[I Am]

The only thing I think this shows is that ~$2.8 billion is around the maximum amount any movie will ever be able to make, so conventional predictions and theories cannot be applied to "Endgame," because it's a feat unto its own that it was able to rake in close to that max amount in just three weeks.

[baumer]

12 minutes ago, I Am said:

The only thing I think this shows is that ~$2.8 billion is around the maximum amount any movie will ever be able to make, so conventional predictions and theories cannot be applied to "Endgame," because it's a feat unto its own that it was able to rake in close to that max amount in just three weeks.

 

You can't put a cap on what a movie can or can't make. at one time nobody thought that a Movie would open up to 257 million for the opening weekend and then nobody thought that I movie could open up to 357 million opening weekend. Just because end game and Avatar will end with around the same amount doesn't mean that's the cap. And keep in mind Avatar made that money more than a decade ago so there's obviously room to grow.

[tawasal]

10 minutes ago, I Am said:

The only thing I think this shows is that ~$2.8 billion is around the maximum amount any movie will ever be able to make, so conventional predictions and theories cannot be applied to "Endgame," because it's a feat unto its own that it was able to rake in close to that max amount in just three weeks.

The same have been said for any other record breaker for only their record to be broken and for a new bench mark to be set for blockbusters. 

 

Theaters will expand and more screens will be introduced and ticket prices will rise and their will be more premium screens with higher prices. All these will pave the road for the next mega hit.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Avoiding spoilers played a huge part in the OW rush like no other movie before. They marketed the movie that way. People who would normally wait till Tuesday or even 2nd week rushed toward the OW. Not really surprised at the below average legs. 

[tawasal]

24 minutes ago, Jessie2 said:

Before i delete my account i had to just say how wrong you are, you wouldn't find a single person here who even recognizes his name

Please stay, I want to hear plenty more reasons why I am wrong.

[svetlana99]

15 minutes ago, I Am said:

The only thing I think this shows is that ~$2.8 billion is around the maximum amount any movie will ever be able to make, so conventional predictions and theories cannot be applied to "Endgame," because it's a feat unto its own that it was able to rake in close to that max amount in just three weeks.

With the Chinese market continuing to expand and Africa being a market that will boom in the future, not to mention inflation, I don't agree that $2.8 billion is the cap. Not even close.

[Orestes]

Hard to say if the legs for EG are average, below average, good, or bad, because right now it's the leggiest 300m and 350m+ opener ever.

Edited May 16, 2019 by Orestes

[tawasal]

We all now Captain Marvel 2 will be the first movie to dethrone Avatar. 

[lorddemaxus]

 

 

1

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

 

 

 

 

3

 

 

 

2

Problem for Pikachu is it's not a family film so it won't jump like one. More like Shazam a hybrid with even less kids seeing it. 

I didn't know PG films made to sell merch to kids weren't considered family films. Btw, Pikachu likely has attracted more kids than Shazam did if we go by Deadline's weekend report.

 

For Shazam:

Quote

 In Screen Engine/ComScore PostTrak exits, Shazam! drew 25% under-18, with males under/over 25 essentially equal at 33%. Kids and parents combined repped 25% of the audience, and both gave this superhero Big-liked pic 4 1/2 stars each.

 

For Pikachu:

 

 

1

Quote

 

 

1

Those who bought tickets were 56% male and 61% under 25, with 32% under 17 years old. General audiences numbered 65%, with kids under 12 at 24% and parents at 11% . 

The percentage of kids who went to Pikachu was 1% lower than % of parents+kids who went to watch Shazam. So that means % of kids for Shazam was much lower than Pikachu. And Shazam had 33% under 25 while Pikachu had 61% which is a huge difference. 

Edited May 16, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[I Am]

18 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

You can't put a cap on what a movie can or can't make. at one time nobody thought that a Movie would open up to 257 million for the opening weekend and then nobody thought that I movie could open up to 357 million opening weekend. Just because end game and Avatar will end with around the same amount doesn't mean that's the cap. And keep in mind Avatar made that money more than a decade ago so there's obviously room to grow.

 

18 minutes ago, tawasal said:

The same have been said for any other record breaker for only their record to be broken and for a new bench mark to be set for blockbusters. 

 

Theaters will expand and more screens will be introduced and ticket prices will rise and their will be more premium screens with higher prices. All these will pave the road for the next mega hit.

These assumptions ignore reality and assume limitless expansion.

There's a reason why AMC's A-List membership has been so successful.

 

15 minutes ago, svetlana99 said:

With the Chinese market continuing to expand and Africa being a market that will boom in the future, not to mention inflation, I don't agree that $2.8 billion is the cap. Not even close.

Another assumption that assumes the maturity of the Chinese filming industry won't lead to fewer commitments to Hollywood films. Another assumption that assumes "Africa being a market" means African nationalities putting aside Nollywood and African films for the sake of chasing after Hollywood films. And the final assumption being that both Chinese people and the various groups in Africa all have the same tastes in movies, and that will continually align to eventually make white Hollywood three, four, and beyond billion dollars on a single movie(s.)

Edited May 16, 2019 by I Am

[ChipDerby]

Endgame is staring a 60% weekend drop right in the face.

[tawasal]

1 minute ago, I Am said:

 

 

These assumptions assume limitless expansion.

 

Another assumption that assumes the maturity of the Chinese filming industry won't lead to fewer commitments to Hollywood. Another assumption that assumes "Africa being a market" means putting aside Nollywood and African films for the sake of chasing after Hollywood films. And the final assumption being that both Chinese people and the various nationalities in Africa have the same tastes in movies, and that will continually align to make white Hollywood three and four and beyond billion dollars on a single movie.

And you’re from the future, so you’re not basing your assumptions on assumptions. 

 

So you replied to all those posts that were saying don’t put a cap on box office perfomances through your assumptions, by throwing more assumptions of why your assumption is right and others are not.

[NCsoft]

44 minutes ago, I Am said:

The only thing I think this shows is that ~$2.8 billion is around the maximum amount any movie will ever be able to make, so conventional predictions and theories cannot be applied to "Endgame," because it's a feat unto its own that it was able to rake in close to that max amount in just three weeks.

This is not true at all, just because endgame isn't testing the global market ceiling, doesn't mean the global market ceiling is at 2.8B. When Jurassic Park grossed 914M worldwide, people probably thought that's the maximum a film can do, until Titanic doubled that 4 years later. 

One way of telling that endgame is nowhere near global market ceiling:

It doesn't seem like the movie is reaching highest grossing film status in any major markets, is it?

Not Domestic, China, Japan, Australia, UK, Germany, France, Spain, India. Not sure if it's reaching all time high in Brazil and Mexico, didn't pay too much attention.

In fact, I would argue that 2.8B isn't even the market ceiling in 2009, why? Because Avatar could have done better domestically, its admission numbers were nowhere near TFA or Titanic domestically. 2019 is a totally different world.

Edited May 16, 2019 by NCsoft