Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - John Wick: Chapter 3 $56.82M | Avengers Endgame $29.97M | Detective Pikachu $25.10M

[JB33]

I'm not seeing over $30M for EG for the weekend. It would need an above average Friday/Saturday bump and Sunday drop to get there and I'm not going to bank on that.

[OncomingStorm93]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

It's the truth. I'm not sure why people would be presuming JW3 is going to be a competent film. You say "Jurassic World 3 needs a marketing campaign as great as the one for the first JW". I say JW needs to be a good product first and foremost, which will in turn lend itself to a successful marketing campaign.

[Brainbug]

Just now, OncomingStorm93 said:

It's the truth. I'm not sure why people would be presuming JW3 is going to be a competent film. You say "Jurassic World 3 needs a marketing campaign as great as the one for the first JW". I say JW needs to be a good product first and foremost, which will in turn lend itself to a successful marketing campaign.

 

Hey im just joking around a bit i know JW2 has a terrible script, i love that film but its really dumb, i know that. And of course, if JW3 is a good movie critically-speaking, the marketing campaign will profit from that immensely.

[Keanu]

                Is it OK that I feel so special    right meow?  

 

Edited May 17, 2019 by Keanu

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Hey im just joking around a bit i know JW2 has a terrible script, i love that film but its really dumb, i know that. And of course, if JW3 is a good movie critically-speaking, the marketing campaign will profit from that immensely.

[Barnack]

43 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I wonder if Keanu is on any sort of backend, I assume he is in order to keep the budget low

Known name with a major role (or even good cameo) pretty much always have some backend structure, almost certain he has here but possibly because it is pre-sold everywhere only on few market, that said if he have profit participation type intl pre-sales revenues will be used in the formula.

[DAJK]

35 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Even I doubt that, honestly. They would need a really great hook, something even more promising than the small bits weve got at the end of FK, to approach 500M+ DOM imo. 400M is again a fair target i think.

JW3 has a great hook already IMO. Pretty much the hook we've been waiting for since JW1 was announced. Dinosaurs running rampant in civilian areas? Could make for a sweet movie. 

31 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

JW4 coming for 120+ opening, this is basic mathematics.    

 

  Hide contents

More seriously, franchises that will increase in near future:  

Spider-Man  

Wonder Woman?   

Ant-Man  

Captain Marvel?  

Star Wars?  

Doctor Strange

GotG    

 

 

 

 

Spider-Man's part of the MCU so I'm not counting any sub-franchises within that. Wonder Woman, sure, the sequel will probably increase from the first. If you want to go into MCU territory: Far From Home will increase from Homecoming due to an Endgame bump, but any further sequels will stay within the Homecoming/FFH range. Captain Marvel 2 will decrease from the first. GOTG3 will probably stay level with part 2, maybe IM3 numbers at most.

 

Rise of Skywalker (could) increase from TLJ, but is going nowhere near TFA. After that, Star Wars 2020s movies will be lucky to pull 400M apiece. 

[cdsacken]

Some of those backend deals are just monstrous. People making $75-100 million

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, terrestrial said:

I just realised:

Isn't it time to change your location? All settled in and such?

Why angry?

I'm just being silly. Although I do feel old. My 4 year old keeps me going. All settled in Tacoma just sorting out the last bits. Yeah I need to update that.

[JB33]

6 minutes ago, DAJK said:

JW3 has a great hook already IMO. Pretty much the hook we've been waiting for since JW1 was announced. Dinosaurs running rampant in civilian areas? Could make for a sweet movie. 

Spider-Man's part of the MCU so I'm not counting any sub-franchises within that. Wonder Woman, sure, the sequel will probably increase from the first. If you want to go into MCU territory: Far From Home will increase from Homecoming due to an Endgame bump, but any further sequels will stay within the Homecoming/FFH range. Captain Marvel 2 will decrease from the first. GOTG3 will probably stay level with part 2, maybe IM3 numbers at most.

 

Rise of Skywalker (could) increase from TLJ, but is going nowhere near TFA. After that, Star Wars 2020s movies will be lucky to pull 400M apiece. 

This depresses me, but you're probably right.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

I need help understanding the akvalley numbers as opposed to movietickets. On movietickets, the gap between Endgame and Pika has been widening since yesterday. On akvalley, although there has been movement, the gap has remained the same since yesterday. Both are 24 hour trackers, so I don’t see why their measurements are so different. Maybe more people are buying tickets for Endgame on movie tickets since yesterday.  

[a2k]

1 hour ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Endgame is not making 8 million today. I don't get Deadline's obsession with over projecting Endgame.

Pikachu and Endgame will both end up 7-7.5m on Friday me thinks

[Firepower]

24 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

Jurassic World 3 needs to be more concerned with putting together a quality script and an original, surprising, engaging film

It's impossible with Trevorrow and his co-writer in charge, these two are some of the most talentless hacks in the industry.

9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

JW3 has a great hook already IMO. Pretty much the hook we've been waiting for since JW1 was announced. Dinosaurs running rampant in civilian areas? Could make for a sweet movie. 

Jurassic Park 3 ending already promised the same thing, which was ignored in JW and sold again in JW:FK. And Trevorrow said himself that JW3 won't be what people expect from it.

[KJsooner]

Lmao at deadline. Whatever they predict for Endgame, take 20% off of it, and there you go.

[Jake Gittes]

48 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

They really could get a John Wick / The Equalizer crossover in the future. The Equalizer's writer even talked about this, last year. He would like to see both Keanu/Denzel kicking ass.

 

 

The Equalizer spent half his last movie sitting on a fucking park bench, driving a Lyft and looking for paintings he'd be just unnecessary baggage for Wick.

[DAJK]

Paramount should beg Lionsgate to allow a crossover with Mission Impossible. Spider-Man 3 type plot where they find out the "real" killer of Wick's dog was Ethan Hunt, only for it to be a misunderstanding. John Wick spends the first two acts coming after Ethan, in probably the best cat-and-mouse movie EVER. Then in the final act it is revealed that Ethan was set up, and the two of them team up to take out the real villain. 

 

150M OW would happen

[filmscholar]

Even though the M:I series is PG13, I'm liking the comparisons between "Fallout" and "Parabellum" as far as this weekend.  "Fallout" did about 61.    

 

M:I FO

 

22

21 -6

17 -20

 

I think it did 6 Million previews too.   If JW3 does hit 25 today, than over 60 is looking good because it would be ahead of "M:I FO".  

Edited May 17, 2019 by filmscholar

[keysersoze123]

57 minutes ago, a2k said:

Pikachu and Endgame will both end up 7-7.5m on Friday me thinks

Pikachu had lower monday drop than Endgame. Why will it have a bigger increase. It also lost all PLF screens today.

[CoolioD1]

6 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

i'm seeing wick 3 in a couple hours but just rewatched the first two and 1 > 2 for sure.

1 > 2 > 3.

[Ethan Hunt]

John Wick 1 doesn't have enough bright neon shit for me tbh