Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[VanillaSkies]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Damn. Aladdin is strong AF. I wonder if Monday can be over 25.

It's possible. 

 

Pirates 5 only fell 18.8% on its Memorial Day Monday, and it didn't have nearly the great reception as Aladdin. 

It also dropped 6% from Saturday - Sunday while it looks like Aladdin will stay flat. 

 

So, not impossible for it to do 25 million, though 22-23 seems more realistic. 

[filmlover]

$110M+ for the 4-day is a lock now. Could get close to $115M too depending on the drop tomorrow. Nice when a movie just surprises everyone.

[catlover]

10 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

You have underestimate how an Arabic culture was a adding point in Muslim-majority countries.  

I guess, but not really. Sometimes we try to practice Islam in "Arab way". But most of the time, we try to separate Islam teaching and Arab culture, because those are 2 different things. So most people here don't really relate to the Arab culture. Especially the one's depicted in this movie, that seems to be detached from religion.

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

29.5-29.75 (31.3 29.7 29.5 : 90.5)

On 5/25/2019 at 7:59 PM, Porthos said:

Solo Sat-Sun was flat last year (24.6 -->24.4).

POTC5 had a drop of 1.3m (20.3 --> 19) in '17.

Apoc had  drop of 1.5m (20.4 --> 18.9) in '16.

 

Given the WOM I would say between flat or no more than a 1m drop.

 

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Audience WOM was bad though 64% audience score is pretty yikes. 

There's every reason to believe that was review bombed, as it was in the 40s before release.

 

I'm not saying Solo had amazing WOM.  It clearly didn't.  But that was one of the films targeted by bombing and as such it's audience score isn't very reliable.

[snarkmachine]

aladdin’s hold next week is going to be very inch resting to watch. i can see some people who didn’t show up to opening weekend bc of bad buzz/reviews show out next week bc of good WOM.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, snarkmachine said:

aladdin’s hold next week is going to be very inch resting to watch. i can see some people who didn’t show up to opening weekend bc of bad buzz/reviews show out next week bc of good WOM.

I'm waiting to see what next weekend's drop is but it honestly won't surprise me if it ends up with solid legs. If it gets close to $300M I imagine Disney will definitely push it past the mark. Helps that they have two mega-openers coming within the next two months to give it a boost as well.

[sfran43]

 

[Geo1500]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

$110M+ for the 4-day is a lock now. Could get close to $115M too depending on the drop tomorrow. Nice when a movie just surprises everyone.

 

 The drop can max be 1m or less. $115M is probably a lock. It could land anywhere between 116-119 max to 120

[cdsacken]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

There's every reason to believe that was review bombed, as it was in the 40s before release.

 

I'm not saying Solo had amazing WOM.  It clearly didn't.  But that was one of the films targeted by bombing and as such it's audience score isn't very reliable.

Ugh that sucks. I hate that

 

I didn't see it 

[narniadis]

14 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

 The drop can max be 1m or less. $115M is probably a lock. It could land anywhere between 116-119 max to 120

If you are talking about the Monday drop it will be more than just 1 million, at least 3 or 4 if not more. 

As others have tried to tell you, take time to look at past histories and learn to understand how holidays such as this one work. The best it could have done was the great drop on Sunday that has been shared by our insider. 

[Jim Shorts]

56 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

aladdin’s hold next week is going to be very inch resting to watch. i can see some people who didn’t show up to opening weekend bc of bad buzz/reviews show out next week bc of good WOM.

I don’t see Aladdin dropping more than 40% next weekend even with these inflated Memorial Day numbers.  It’s the only family movie around until the following week with SLOP2.

Edited May 27, 2019 by Jim Shorts

[Cooper Legion]

I’m actually pretty unsurprised by it landing 110-115. 

[snarkmachine]

disney can make up for its terrible marketing up to this point by making sure the aladdin drop is as minimal as possible. release new tv spots touting its high rt audience score. get radio stations to play the dj khaled remix of ‘friend like me’. the video of naomi scott recording ‘speechless’ got 5m views in three days - they should do the same with ‘a whole new world’ and the genie songs. this can be a super leggy run if they play their cards right.

[snarkmachine]

21 minutes ago, Jim Shorts said:

I don’t see Aladdin dropping more than 40% next weekend even with these inflated Memorial Day numbers.  It’s the only family movie around until the following week with SLOP2.

i’m here for the chaos if aladdin overperforms and godzilla underperforms and aladdin beats it for the no. 1 spot 😈

[DAJK]

I'd love to see Aladdin get to 270 or so domestic. Any higher I think would be wishful thinking, but 250 is certainly possible given WOM seems to be pretty strong.

I could feasibly see the next few weeks playing out like

 

Aladdin - 90/260

Godzilla - 70/200

Rocketman - 30/110

Pets 2 - 55/170

Dark Phoenix - 60/140

Men In Black - 30/85

Toy Story - 120/400

Annabelle - 35/100

Yesterday - 15/70

[narniadis]

51 minutes ago, Jim Shorts said:

I don’t see Aladdin dropping more than 40% next weekend even with these inflated Memorial Day numbers.  It’s the only family movie around until the following week with SLOP2.

Biggest issue with next weekend is both the lack of preview numbers and the fact that Sunday will drop normally. Always part of the reason most films have at least a 50% drop the weekend after Memorial Day. 

And that doesn't take into account the premium / imax screen loss the film will also face causing the ticket price average to drop. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by narniadis

[Cooper Legion]

Aladdin will have something like 75M from pure F, Sat, and Mon. A really great drop would be 40% from that for ~45M, which would be ~-50% from the official 3-day,

[charlie Jatinder]

55 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

disney can make up for its terrible marketing up to this point by making sure the aladdin drop is as minimal as possible. release new tv spots touting its high rt audience score. get radio stations to play the dj khaled remix of ‘friend like me’. the video of naomi scott recording ‘speechless’ got 5m views in three days - they should do the same with ‘a whole new world’ and the genie songs. this can be a super leggy run if they play their cards right.

I was watching the TV spots on India channel of Disney and gosh they had such entertaining stuff but wasted with those stupid trailers.

[Krissykins]

6 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Actually, Aladdin is ahead of Maleficent in most market

What did you mean by this? Smaller markets, in local currency or something?? 

 

Because in dollars it really isn’t. Not in top markets anyway. 

 

Aladdin - Maleficent OW

China - $18.7M v China - $22m

Mexico - $9.2M vs Mexico $14.1m

U.K. - $8.4M vs UK $11m

Italy - $6.6M vs $5.9m

S. Korea - $6.5M vs $3.4m 

Russia - $6.4M vs $14m

Australia - $5.4M vs $3.8m

Spain - $4.8M vs $4.3m

Brazil - $4.6M vs $5.6m

France - $3.8M vs $5m

Germany - $3.6M vs $4.9m

Philippines - $3.4M vs $4.1m