Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hopefully, but something weird has been up with animated multis this year. They went from healthy norms of 3.3-3.6x or so last year to sub 3x as soon as this year started. And some that even had good reception too, like Dragon 3. 

Yes, but i believe it's not something with the genre. I guess only Dragon 3 was well received by audiences this year before TS4, and with so much movies coming out people just skip them. 

 

Dragon 3 to me is the only one which is really hard to understand why it have a low multi... but i supposed the fact is a "smaller" movie and CM exploding killed his chances of a better multiplier since they're releases are kinda close.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

Yes, but i believe it's not something with the genre. I guess only Dragon 3 was well received by audiences this year before TS4, and with so much movies coming out people just skip them. 

 

Dragon 3 to me is the only one which is really hard to understand why it have a low multi... but i supposed the fact is a "smaller" movie and CM exploding killed his chances of a better multiplier since they're releases are kinda close.

LEGO is also really hard to understand. Not exceptional WOM, but not bad by any means either, and a super low OW. Yet barely avoided sub 3x. That's just not normal for animation. You could throw Wonder Park and SLOP2 in the same boat of having decent enough reception and low enough OWs that they should have headed to 3.3x+ with ease. Remember, the sub 3.2x multi in animation has historically always been reserved for ones that get bad WOM. Not so this year. 

[UserHN]

24 minutes ago, raulbalarezo said:

Can TS4 make $400M Dom with that opening ? 🤔

Yes. If it opens to 120, it just needs a 3.33x multi, which is doable for a Pixar film.

[DAR]

This site has the uncanny ability to take an already shitty thread and just make it shittier

[DAR]

42 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Speaking of sequels underperforming, does anyone else have a sneaking suspicion Far From Home may be next?

It has the Jaros curse

[DAR]

3 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is this opening for TS4 a disappointment?  I'm told you are the man to ask.

I think he’s stuck 

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, DAR said:

It has the Jaros curse

Yep. That is sort of why. Unless Brit decides to say it’ll underperform then it’ll reverse the bad juju.

[Deep Wang]

15 minutes ago, DAR said:

It has the Jaros curse

Wait, did I miss Jaros predicting big numbers for FFH??

[LawrenceBrolivier]

46 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

it's not an under-performance realistically but it is relative to expectations. if your tracking says 140- 150M and you finish with 120M-ish, that's disappointing. However, this opening still beats TS3 (unadjusted I assume) so it is fine. it's just that tracking muted the success. 

I understand, I guess what I'm trying to point out is that the yardstick we've been increasingly using seems to be "profit vs. tracking" as opposed to "profit vs. budget"... and I'm not saying people shouldn't pay attention to tracking. It's a very useful tool and it's often used very smartly... but I also think the readiness that we accept tracking as THE yardstick is maybe a little suspect.... especially considering the people who do the tracking have admitted they're not great at it past certain thresh-holds, plus the fact we know the studios themselves will fudge their own tracking. 

Tracking is a game where unreliability comes built in, both from objective outside parties AND the people making the movies themselves. So while it's an important measure... maybe we're giving it too much importance? I don't know. 

The fact most of us here would consider a $125mil OW to be really good for Toy Story 4 if we never knew about the tracking probably says it all, really. Our standard for judgement would be shifted. 

[DAR]

This opening for TS4 is such a disappointment they probably won’t make anymore 

[Zakiyyah6]

1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Speaking of sequels underperforming, does anyone else have a sneaking suspicion Far From Home may be next?

Under performing according to what metric? Personally I always thought that there was a chance of only a decent but not spectacular increase domestically. I could be dead wrong like I was with Aladdin among other bad predictions but I don't buy these massive predictions anymore than I bought the Captain Marvel over 500-600mil in North America stuff that some were peddling. If it hits those sorts of numbers, good for Sony and good for the box office but my thoughts have always been 370-400mil. Which would be great numbers honestly. 

[filmscholar]

47.6?  So about TS3 numbers adjusted?  Well.  Ok.  It is the 4th film of the franchise and I was hoping for this to increase from TS3 overall but we have to see the rest of the weekend.  TS3 got to 400 off a 110 OW 9 years ago.  Yes "Dory" and "I2" definitely had a lot of built up hype because we are talking 14 year-gap sequels.  Where a lot of us felt closure from TS3.  So let's see how the weekend plays out.  Aladdin only dropped 16% from last Fri, it's cruising way pass 300.   Welp, MIB:I definitely not breaking out domestically.  That's pretty good for CP.  

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Wait, did I miss Jaros predicting big numbers for FFH??

 

6 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

Here's another SJ chestnut for your fire:

 

I predict that it will soon become clear that Disney also made a big mistake in signing that Spider-Man deal with Sony.  

 

What did Disney get out of that? The right to put Spider-Man in their MCU movies. Did it help the MCU movies of the past 3-4 years to have Spidey in them? Sure it did. But was it necessary? Would those movies not been smash hits without him? I seriously doubt that.  The MCU was trucking along just fine without Spider-Man. So Disney got a benefit, but not a very big one.

 

Sony, on the other hand, got Marvel to make its Spider movies for them, and that has been YUUUGE. A flagship franchise that had been flagging has been revived in a massive way, with more coming: Two weeks from now, the "Far From Home" movie WILL open to enormous, near $200m DOM OW box office, and will finish north of $500m DOM. And Sony keeps ALL of that loot.

 

Even worse for Disney, by fully integrating the Sony Spider movies into the MCU, they have given these movies the full brand-value of the MCU that Disney (and Paramount, let's not forget!) created. This is worth a few hundred million in box office right there. 

 

And it shocked me to see trailers for FFH that (a) have Sam Jackson's iconic MCU character in them and (b) imply that Spider-Man will be taking over from Iron Man as the kind of leader of the Avengers.

 

Essentially, Disney is telling the public that a SONY property, Spider-Man, is now the head man of the MCU! A huge propaganda victory for Sony. 

 

And even worse *still* for Disney, the success of the new MCU-integrated Spiderman has allowed Sony to branch off and create that new "Spider-verse", which has already paid very nice dividends in the form of Venom and the animated "Into the Spider-verse" films. More of those will be coming, and they directly compete with Disney. 

 

Essentially, Disney has created a Monster in Sony, who is now in position to compete with Disney for Marvel box office dollars. Instead of dominating the MCU, Disney has basically made Sony a nearly-full partner, and will have to share screen-space for years to come with Sony's 2-3 Spider-related movies that they will now churn out each year. 

Massive strategic error by Disney, IMO. If there is a way for them to cut that deal they should.

 

[Valonqar]

22 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

I understand, I guess what I'm trying to point out is that the yardstick we've been increasingly using seems to be "profit vs. tracking" as opposed to "profit vs. budget"... and I'm not saying people shouldn't pay attention to tracking. It's a very useful tool and it's often used very smartly... but I also think the readiness that we accept tracking as THE yardstick is maybe a little suspect.... especially considering the people who do the tracking have admitted they're not great at it past certain thresh-holds, plus the fact we know the studios themselves will fudge their own tracking. 

Tracking is a game where unreliability comes built in, both from objective outside parties AND the people making the movies themselves. So while it's an important measure... maybe we're giving it too much importance? I don't know. 

The fact most of us here would consider a $125mil OW to be really good for Toy Story 4 if we never knew about the tracking probably says it all, really. Our standard for judgement would be shifted. 

oh I agree with all this! However, media report tracking so it isn't really that we are disappointed but the narrative is created in wider circles that OW is disappointing if it misses announced tracking and expectations by good 20-30M. you know, all those headlines "Movie X is heading into huge 150M+ OW". It works when the expectation is met, even better when it's exceeded but the opposite will launch 1000 What Went Wrong think-pieces. That conspicuously won't list their overblown headlines as the only "wrong" thing that matters. 

Edited June 22, 2019 by Valonqar

[John Marston]

5 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Under performing according to what metric? Personally I always thought that there was a chance of only a decent but not spectacular increase domestically. I could be dead wrong like I was with Aladdin among other bad predictions but I don't buy these massive predictions anymore than I bought the Captain Marvel over 500-600mil in North America stuff that some were peddling. If it hits those sorts of numbers, good for Sony and good for the box office but my thoughts have always been 370-400mil. Which would be great numbers honestly. 

All trades had higher numbers and Disney own estimate was 140m so yeah underperforming to expectations

[superduperm]

Some good news: TS4 back up to 98% on RT

[cdsacken]

Lol can it get 3.33 legs lol. Aladdin will do like 3.5x it's 3day

[Deep Wang]

Ah, I see what my problem was!  I stopped reading after:

 

"I predict that it will soon become clear that Disney also made a big mistake in signing that Spider-Man deal with Sony." 

 

RIP Far From Home

Edited June 22, 2019 by Deep Wang

[Zakiyyah6]

24 minutes ago, John Marston said:

All trades had higher numbers and Disney own estimate was 140m so yeah underperforming to expectations

My post was about Far From Home so I think you meant to respond to something else.

 

 

Edited June 22, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[Sunny Max]

26 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Some good news: TS4 back up to 98% on RT

Hmm Great ...