Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

[AlexMA]

8 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Lol can it get 3.33 legs lol. Aladdin will do like 3.5x it's 3day

I think it has a very good shot at 3.8, Aladdin I mean, which would give it about $350 million. That's kind of insane. Right now needs $320 million for your 3.5, but by the end of this weekend it will already be at $289 million, and this is the sort of movie that could have very long legs this summer, as it didn't seem to flinch in the face of Toy Story 4 and will definitely get a boost from The Lion King (all that first half of the 90's nostalgia for Disney, package brilliantly is paying huge dividends), not huge but it will be there. So while I would have said $320 million too about 10 days ago, now I'm thinking $340-350 million could happen for our boy, Prince Ali.

 

If Endgame can do another $50 million after its first 31 days despite exhausting a lot more demand in the first couple of days, then I don't see how Aladdin can't do even more than that, which is why my  new range is that, 340-350.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

Truth is that no one can predict how these sequels will play out. There are many who feel that FFH will breeze passed 400M to 420 because it is marketed as a quasi sequel to Endgame. But who knows anymore? 420 range would be a massive increase of almost 100M from Homecoming. I think some people may be minimizing how great a run Captain Marvel had, because they view it as a given for FFH to increase due to the Endgame connection, as CM did. I have no clue how FFH will do. Absolutely none, but please do not over predict again and have a let down if it fails to open at 200 million over 6 days. This board is filled with those who massively over predict but then are disappointed when the movie fails to meet their lofty expectations.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 hours ago, Avatree said:

i don't think i'd ever have sex with anyone

None of us think you will.

[lorddemaxus]

Hopefully the post-Summer sequels don't suffer from sequelitis (I'm specifically talking about It 2, Doctor Sleep, Frozen 2, Star Wars Episode IX) since I'm actually excited for them. I'm thinking Maleficent 2 and Jumanji 2 will suffer though.

Edited June 22, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[Rebeccas]

Kind of expected TS4 to go down a bit honestly. I mean I love the movie but marketing wise, there wasn't a great hook for this? TS3 felt so conclusive. I don't think Bo Peep was enough of a sell for people after they already got closure in the last one. 

[cookie]

Maleficent 2 is going to see a hefty decrease no matter what (five and a half year gap and mid-October release), the question is how much.

[Zakiyyah6]

Maleficent 2 is another Through the Looking Glass.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

19 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Hopefully the post-Summer sequels don't suffer from sequelitis (I'm specifically talking about It 2, Doctor Sleep, Frozen 2, Star Wars Episode IX) since I'm actually excited for them. I'm thinking Maleficent 2 and Jumanji 2 will suffer though.

So long as my WW84 does as well as WW, then I will be happy. If it does above, which I expect, then I will be ecstatic. But this summer kind of makes me apprehensive to go all in. Guarding against disappointment already. 

[AlexMA]

6 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Maleficent 2 is another Through the Looking Glass.

I doubt it will do THAT bad, but I also doubt it can get more than 130-140 million in North America and maybe 400-500 million worldwide. But who knows, if it's hot garbage then it most definitely will be another Through the Looking Glass.

[baumer]

8 minutes ago, BK007 said:

 

I'm no expert on American 80s horror, but why did this reboot fail compared to the likes of Halloween and Friday the 13th and etc that have all come out in recent years and done really well (at least compared to the early years of this millennium/decade where they were flopping).

 

Then again, this summer has not been kind to most movies anyway. 

Because Chucky was never anywhere near as big as Jason Freddy and Michael.

[infamous5445]

Someone should have made a TS4 DOM < Endgame OW club. 

Edited June 22, 2019 by infamous5445

[Claire of Themyscira]

Y'all being messy as usual and turning every thread, every weekend for the worst. Y'all stay doing it every day, every time for everything. It's become a RITUAL.

 

Stream Ritual by Tiesto (FEAT. RITA ORA).

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, AlexMA said:

I think it has a very good shot at 3.8, Aladdin I mean, which would give it about $350 million. That's kind of insane. Right now needs $320 million for your 3.5, but by the end of this weekend it will already be at $289 million, and this is the sort of movie that could have very long legs this summer, as it didn't seem to flinch in the face of Toy Story 4 and will definitely get a boost from The Lion King (all that first half of the 90's nostalgia for Disney, package brilliantly is paying huge dividends), not huge but it will be there. So while I would have said $320 million too about 10 days ago, now I'm thinking $340-350 million could happen for our boy, Prince Ali.

 

If Endgame can do another $50 million after its first 31 days despite exhausting a lot more demand in the first couple of days, then I don't see how Aladdin can't do even more than that, which is why my  new range is that, 340-350.

I mentioned after seeing it that I thought WOM might be 4x multi amazing level. Looks like that could end up close to the case after all, even though the 2nd and 3rd weekends had me a bit worried. Would be incredible if it could beat TJB's $364 DOM and Alice's $1.025b WW to be the second biggest of these DOM and WW. 

Edited June 22, 2019 by MovieMan89

[gary]

31 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Maleficent 2 is another Through the Looking Glass.

 

Wasn't that because Depp is an abuser more than people asking for a sequel for Alice ?

[MovieMan89]

I was about to ask when they were going to start marketing Maleficent 2 and then realized I had already seen the trailer and completely forgotten it. 

[Zakiyyah6]

1 minute ago, gary said:

 

Wasn't that because Depp is an abuser more than people asking for a sequel for Alice ?

No it wasn't. I believe that he is an abuser but a lot of people didn't even believe that he was. 

[jj99]

43 minutes ago, cookie said:

Maleficent 2 is going to see a hefty decrease no matter what (five and a half year gap and mid-October release), the question is how much.

 

36 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Maleficent 2 is another Through the Looking Glass.

 

Underestimate Mal at your own Peril.

 

Post Lion King we only have Angry Birds and Dora in August as the only Family Movies. There is also Abominable in Sept, but not sure wha kind of profile that movie has.

 

I think demand alone will carry It along nicely. Mal 1 performed excellently during the World Cup in the summer, so I'm more worried about its OS numbers.

 

Edited June 22, 2019 by jj99

[AndyK]

Great numbers for TS4.

[The Futurist]

I don't follow things like tracking and predictions that much but still :

 

Toy Story 4's numbers are surprising in the sense that we had a series of badly reviewed blockbusters that flopped, 3 of them almost in a row, which is rare.

Given these circumstances, one could have hoped audiences were starting to crave for a great summer film.

TS4 has stellar reviews and even with all I ve just said, it didn't managed to offset the tepid numbers of MIB Gurl!, AtheistZilla 2, Pets Story 2 & Dark Falcon.

 

Something s  fishy this year or I am over reacting maybe but those numbers don't add up.

 

A pattern and trend are starting to emerge IMO ...

Edited June 22, 2019 by The Futurist

[DAR]

6 hours ago, baumer said:

Because Chucky was never anywhere near as big as Jason Freddy and Michael.

 

44 minutes ago, baumer said:

Because Chucky was never anywhere near as big as Jason Freddy and Michael.