THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!

[Davidwested]

4 hours ago, Valonqar said:

I think that BW is going to go really well especially OS. So that's one potential. Shang-Chi could blow up in China and that's half-way to 1B. Thor 4 will naturally increase from Thor 3 to 1B. Biggest question mark is Ethernals and how much of an increase DS2 will have on DS. 

Don't think BW will do big numbers at all its a prequel about a beloved character the audience knows its dead. Its like Solo. We all know how that one turned out. Thor 4 is also a wildcard its more a movie about Natalie Portman and Tessa Thompsons character. DS 2 will do well because its features Scarlet Witch teaming up with Strange. She is a fan favorite. Still have no clue why Feige is not giving her a solo movie. Shang and Ethernals are big question marks.

[CJohn]

8 minutes ago, Davidwested said:

Don't think BW will do big numbers at all its a prequel about a beloved character the audience knows its dead. Its like Solo. We all know how that one turned out. Thor 4 is also a wildcard its more a movie about Natalie Portman and Tessa Thompsons character. DS 2 will do well because its features Scarlet Witch teaming up with Strange. She is a fan favorite. Still have no clue why Feige is not giving her a solo movie. Shang and Ethernals are big question marks.

These are all gonna do between 250M and 350M DOM. 

[Taruseth]

51 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

If you look at Deadline, they already admit that the numbers that they have are higher. Even Saturday is 600K higher than what Disney is reporting. Disregarding mixed signals, or a faulty source, that discrepancy is a wee bit interesting.

 

Outside of that, Disney is notorious for lowballing their estimates, often by a considerable amount.

 

Just going by OW, Toy Story 4 estimate was 118M, then it increased about 2.5% to 120.9M. Aladdin estimate was 86.1M 3-Day, then it increased 6.3% for 91.5M. Endgame 350M, then 2% to 357.1M, Dumbo 45M, then 2.2% to 45.99M. Mary Poppins Returns 22.2M, 5.8% to 23.5M. Solo 83.3M, 1.3% to 84.4. Infinity War 250M, 3.1% to 257.7. Black Panther 192M, 5.2% to 202M.

 

Yeah, not every Disney movie lowballs the numbers, but a lot of the time, it does happen, especially to the larger openers, and there's a substantial amount of money left on the table here, . By further comparison, Beauty and the Beast did 170M for estimates, then had a 2.8% increase to 174.75M. And what do you know, using that percentage brings us to 190.2M. Now do I think 190M is a lock for actuals? No. But the precedence is certainly there, and I fail to see why this movie would act any different compared to some of the other mega openers listed.

They have been doing it for years, and they do it all the time. the others go the opposite way rather overshoot a little and have that in the headlines than go below. Disney is weird. Also especially BP and back in 2015 TFA were off by 100M both, how the fuck do you calculate that badly? I kinda get Endgame, once your movie does 100M more than the previous record breaker just a year ago you have no idea what will happen. But otherwise?

 

Next Wend will properly be rather boring, TLK will probably drop between 52 and 56%. Funny would be a drop of like 40% or 65% though the later would mean below 500m finish, so definitely hoping for the former, knowing that it won't happen.

 

Also maybe TLK could give us the first 30+M Weekday not TFA (It's TFA and Week before and after Christmas), BP (President's Day), Endgame (it's Endgame), RO (Boxing Day) or Opening Day of a movie. Lol, so just 4 movies managed a Weekday above 30M for 8 Weekdays above that in total and TFA with 4 has half of them.

 

Edited July 21, 2019 by Taruseth

[Valonqar]

8 minutes ago, Davidwested said:

Don't think BW will do big numbers at all its a prequel about a beloved character the audience knows its dead. Its like Solo. We all know how that one turned out. Thor 4 is also a wildcard its more a movie about Natalie Portman and Tessa Thompsons character. DS 2 will do well because its features Scarlet Witch teaming up with Strange. She is a fan favorite. Still have no clue why Feige is not giving her a solo movie. Shang and Ethernals are big question marks.

There's more goodwill for BW than Solo. Nobody wanted Solo while people wanted BW. We'll see if the movie's coming out a little too late, and I agree it may not be 1B candidate that I think it could be, but it isn't comparable to Solo at all. 

 

Thor L&T will feature Thor heavily in promotion even if the movie ends up not about him. So at least big WW opening weekend is assured and that's now half the billie business. 

 

Agreed that not giving Olsen a solo movie is ridiculous. Wanda is amazing. 

 

 

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

There's more goodwill for BW than Solo. Nobody wanted Solo while people wanted BW. We'll see if the movie's coming out a little too late, and I agree it may not be 1B candidate that I think it could be, but it isn't comparable to Solo at all. 

 

Thor L&T will feature Thor heavily in promotion even if the movie ends up not about him. So at least big WW opening weekend is assured and that's now half the billie business. 

 

Agreed that not giving Olsen a solo movie is ridiculous. Wanda is amazing. 

 

 

I think the key will be if the movie exists for more reasons than "to finally give Natasha her own movie". Sounds like it will kind of set up the new Black Widow (Yelena Belova) as well as some other characters (villains or heroes) that will be very relevant going forward.

[Porthos]

42 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Family films rarely see less than a 3.0X in the summer. It's almost unheard of for successful family films. Shrek 3 is the only one I can think of. 

That's because it's rare for a family film to open over 125m OW, never mind 175m or 185m.

 

Here is the list of ALL "family" films to open over 125m:

 

Quote

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Opening*	% of Total	Theaters	Avg.	Total Gross^	Date**
9	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$185,000,000	100.0%	4,725	$39,153	$185,000,000	7/19/2019
10	Incredibles 2	BV	$182,687,905	30.0%	4,410	$41,426	$608,581,744	6/15/2018
12	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$174,750,616	34.7%	4,210	$41,508	$504,014,165	3/17/2017
14	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$169,189,427	44.4%	4,375	$38,672	$381,011,219	7/15/2011
29	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$135,634,554	32.0%	4,133	$32,817	$423,315,812	7/7/2006
30	Finding Dory	BV	$135,060,273	27.8%	4,305	$31,373	$486,295,561	6/17/2016
35	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1	WB	$125,017,372	42.2%	4,125	$30,307	$295,983,305	11/19/2010

Harry Potter is Harry Potter, and thus it's own thing.  POTC is hella marginal but I included it anyway. I won't begrudge anyone for ignoring it as I barely included it (it's more a four quad action adventure, but whatever).  Did nuke The Hunger Games entries though.

 

The only direct analogues, IMO, are Incredibles 2 and Beauty and the Beast.  Nothing else is within 50m of TLK.  IMO, it just doesn't make sense to compare the mutli of a 135m film (Finding Dory, for instance) and a 185+m on (TLK).

 

If you slap on the adjuster, it's not much better:

 

Quote

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Opening*	% of Total	Theaters	Avg.	Adjusted Gross^	Date**
11	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$191,989,500	44.4%	4,375	$43,883	$432,389,100	7/15/2011
13	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$186,575,200	32.0%	4,133	$45,142	$582,301,600	7/7/2006
15	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$185,000,000	100.0%	4,725	$39,153	$185,000,000	7/19/2019
17	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$178,111,200	34.8%	4,210	$42,306	$511,751,900	3/17/2017
19	Incredibles 2	BV	$175,481,700	29.4%	4,410	$39,792	$597,356,200	6/15/2018
24	Shrek the Third	P/DW	$159,284,800	37.7%	4,122	$38,642	$422,631,800	5/18/2007
28	Shrek 2	DW	$156,750,600	24.5%	4,163	$37,652	$640,168,900	5/19/2004
32	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	BV	$150,253,300	37.1%	4,362	$34,445	$405,214,800	5/25/2007
35	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	WB	$144,337,100	35.5%	3,858	$37,412	$407,029,200	11/18/2005
36	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	WB	$143,737,600	28.5%	3,672	$39,144	$503,775,900	11/16/2001
41	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1	WB	$140,625,000	42.2%	4,125	$34,091	$333,272,600	11/19/2010
42	Finding Dory	BV	$139,392,100	27.5%	4,305	$32,379	$505,984,400	6/17/2016
45	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	WB	$137,022,500	33.9%	3,682	$37,214	$404,692,100	11/15/2002
46	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	WB	$135,929,700	37.5%	3,855	$35,259	$362,055,600	6/4/2004
49	Alice in Wonderland (2010)	BV	$131,581,200	34.7%	3,728	$35,295	$379,338,900	3/5/2010
52	Minions	Uni.	$126,378,500	34.5%	4,301	$29,384	$366,835,400	7/10/2015
53	Toy Story 3	BV	$126,125,400	26.2%	4,028	$31,312	$480,588,300	6/18/2010
54	Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull	Par.	$125,660,400	31.6%	4,260	$29,498	$397,922,200	5/22/2008

At least here we have more of a spread (while noting that Harry Potter still is Harry Potter).  On the other hand, legs were simply much better in the 2000s, so I think one should really restrict it back to this decade.

 

Which gives:

 

Quote

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Opening*	% of Total	Theaters	Avg.	Adjusted Gross^	Date**
11	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$191,989,500	44.4%	4,375	$43,883	$432,389,100	7/15/2011
15	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$185,000,000	100.0%	4,725	$39,153	$185,000,000	7/19/2019
17	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$178,111,200	34.8%	4,210	$42,306	$511,751,900	3/17/2017
19	Incredibles 2	BV	$175,481,700	29.4%	4,410	$39,792	$597,356,200	6/15/2018
41	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1	WB	$140,625,000	42.2%	4,125	$34,091	$333,272,600	11/19/2010
42	Finding Dory	BV	$139,392,100	27.5%	4,305	$32,379	$505,984,400	6/17/2016
49	Alice in Wonderland (2010)	BV	$131,581,200	34.7%	3,728	$35,295	$379,338,900	3/5/2010
52	Minions	Uni.	$126,378,500	34.5%	4,301	$29,384	$366,835,400	7/10/2015
53	Toy Story 3	BV	$126,125,400	26.2%	4,028	$31,312	$480,588,300	6/18/2010

 

Annnnnd, we're nearly right back were we started. Nine films this decade.  That's it.  Plus, HP gets thrown out for obvious reasons. Which brings it back down to seven films released this decade.  SEVEN!!!  

 

Taking the spread into account, that means, IMO, there are exactly two movies to compare TLK in its genre when it comes to OW legs: Beauty and the Beast and Incredibles 2.

 

One was released in the summer and one wasn't.   So we're now down to one comp, and I don't know about you, but I don't take too much away from comps with a sample size of one.

 

TL;DR:  The only comps to TLK that make a lick of sense when it comes to legs are I2 and BatB, and both are problematic for various reasons.  Therefore I don't think we can use traditional leg arguments for what to expect out of family films one way or the other.

 

I do think it'll be larger than, say, a CBM or SW film.  I also don't think it will be an indictment of TLK if it just misses 3x, as the so-called rules for family films when it comes to legs are really untested at this size of an OW.

Edited July 21, 2019 by Porthos

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I think the key will be if the movie exists for more reasons than "to finally give Natasha her own movie". Sounds like it will kind of set up the new Black Widow (Yelena Belova) as well as some other characters (villains or heroes) that will be very relevant going forward.

yes that's the part that I'm not interested in but is a good hook for the future. I'm only interested in what they do with Nat. if Nat's gone from the series, so is my interest. I do agree it's a good move for them to continue with a living character than churn out prequels about the dead one.

Edited July 21, 2019 by Valonqar

[xiazhi]

5 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Since we’re talking MCU future grosses, here’s what I think:

Black Widow: $90M/$255M/$720M

Eternals: $125M/$375M/$925M

Shang Chi: $100M/$130M/$300M/$975M (China helps)

DSitMoM: $145M/$390M/$1B

Thor4: $160M/$415M/$1.05B

Thor should get a 1B solo too

[JB33]

I'm extremely curious to see the marketing for Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness in a little under 2 years time. I mean, the first one's opening was nothing to sneeze at ($85M), and the character's popularity has grown since IW and EG, but it will be interesting to see just how big they can get a Doctor Strange movie at the end of the day to open to. Can it open to $145M, like @YourMother the Edgelord predicted? That's a prime May opener on the level of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2.

[BadAtGender]

Potentially, all five of the dated MCU films could earn less DOM than Endgame had OW.

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

Potentially, all five of the dated MCU films could earn less DOM than Endgame had OW.

yeah it speaks volumes on what crazy this weekend was, but call me crazy but i dont know why, but i think that all of these films have a very big potential, idk i just feel that would way

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

Potentially, all five of the dated MCU films could earn less DOM than Endgame had OW.

Spoiler

Could have gone with a crumbling person gif ala The Snap, but decided that was a bit too on the nose.

 

[a2k]

I2's 10-day of 350 was under AEG ow. AEG's ow is the biggest bo story since Titanic's run IMO.

[XXR & Friends]

10 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

Potentially, all five of the dated MCU films could earn less DOM than Endgame had OW.

 

I actually think 4 of the 5 will do just that. I believe 1 (either Eternals or Shang Chi) will blow up and go for Captain Marvel numbers. 

[Alli]

Next year is better for creativity with Nolan, Villaneuve, but the box office will crash. i don't see Black Widow and Eternals setting the BO on fire like the previous Marvel movies. Thank god for WW1984, but this year we've been spopiled

[xiazhi]

7 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

25% sun drop for TLK?

27% sun drop for TS4?

 

Lol Disney is ridiculous with those big underestimates

Their strategy is one headline on Sunday and a bigger one on Monday. Other studios need to watch and learn.

[a2k]

When Avatar did it's thing this is how global boxoffice looked that year.

1) 0 films doing 1b apart from Avatar. It did 3x #2

2) shout out to how huge potters and couple of ice age films were os

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio*  Filter BV Focus Fox FoxS Free FullC LGF MGM Mira. Over. P/DW Par. ParV SGem Sony Sum. TriS Uni. W/Dim. WB WB (NL) Wein. ALL	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %
1	Avatar	Fox	$2,779.0	$749.8	27.0%	$2,029.2	73.0%
2	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	WB	$934.4	$302.0	32.3%	$632.5	67.7%
3	Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs	Fox	$888.8	$196.6	22.1%	$692.2	77.9%
4	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	P/DW	$836.3	$402.1	48.1%	$434.2	51.9%
5	2012	Sony	$769.7	$166.1	21.6%	$603.6	78.4%
6	Up	BV	$735.1	$293.0	39.9%	$442.1	60.1%
7	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	Sum.	$709.7	$296.6	41.8%	$413.1	58.2%
8	Sherlock Holmes	WB	$524.0	$209.0	39.9%	$315.0	60.1%
9	Angels & Demons	Sony	$485.9	$133.4	27.4%	$352.6	72.6%
10	The Hangover	WB	$467.5	$277.3	59.3%	$190.2	40.7%

Edited July 21, 2019 by a2k

[xiazhi]

31 minutes ago, Alli said:

Next year is better for creativity with Nolan, Villaneuve, but the box office will crash. i don't see Black Widow and Eternals setting the BO on fire like the previous Marvel movies. Thank god for WW1984, but this year we've been spopiled

1984 will struggle to match the original without the hype of being the first female solo.

[JohnnyGossamer]

I mean, I'd still be surprised if TLK doesn't at least approach a 3 multiplier. Summer days. No real competition. Sure, it's more frontloaded than other animated family mega openers but it's not like the Potter flicks making them poor comparisons. 

 

Any Sunday numbers from Rth or Charlie yet?

[a2k]