THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, cookie said:

I don't see TLK missing BatB unless it drops like 65% next week.

Agreed. 520ish is the likely range, but I won’t rule out under BatB if the drop is particularly nasty next week.

[cannastop]

25 minutes ago, jedijake said:

For one, it's not going to be $185 million when the actuals come in. Should be at least $190 million.

Why do you assume this?

[MovieMan89]

Just now, cannastop said:

Why do you assume this?

I’d like to know as well. The Sunday estimate is roughly equivalent to BatB’s hold, and this already is acting far more frontloaded than that. 

[Biggestgeekever]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I’d like to know as well. The Sunday estimate is roughly equivalent to BatB’s hold, and this already is acting far more frontloaded than that. 

It's July so all schools are out for the summer. More people will see a film late at night then leading to a stronger Sunday hold. Additionally, mega openers tend to have better than average Sunday declines as well, so Lion King should have at worst a 20% drop today, and probably more like 15%

[JB33]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

For anyone saying a high or low number is locked...$200M was a "lock" Friday morning after the $23M in previews...that lock did not come to pass, and it didn't even actually come close.  So, about the only thing that's likely (and not locked) is that Tuesday will be enormous with the last practically free discount day prebuys from the Atom deal and the opening family day effect.  After that, I'd expect this movie to go practically anywhere...

I agree 100%. I'm shocked at the OW number based on the previews. Now I'm not considering anything locked because I really don't know how the eff this is going to go.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Why do you assume this?

Because its summer and not March

[Porthos]

I think it is far too early to be talking about floors and ceilings for TLK unless one is throwing out huge values.

 

One the one hand, there are also a shit ton of showings for TLK during the opening week, so it could get something akin to the Endgame situation where a ton of demand was already met by sheer supply.

 

On the other hand, the Sat jump for TLK off the True Fri (9.91% est) was only slightly worse than TS4's (11.63%), and that looks to be having very nice legs.

 

More to the point, it's an open question just how much rush there is to see TLK.  There is very little fear among the GA over spoilers, so that could, and I stress could, mean there is more of relaxed pace to seeing it, meaning a bit of an uptick on the legs.

 

Then there is the elephant in the room, the reviews.  I think there is very little doubt that the reviews did depress the OW I mean, it only makes sense.  But just because it probably depressed it a little doesn't mean it's gonna damage it hugely.

 

And the reception seems fairly good, if not stratospheric. I certainly don't see a Shrek 3 type reaction out there, that's for sure.

 

Do I personally think TLK is gonna get 3x off a, oh let's say a 188 OW (564m)?  It's an open question if only because of the huge opening and huge supply already taken care of. But I certainly wouldn't be shocked to see 575m (3.05x), nor would I be shocked to see 525m/535m (2.79x/2.85x).

 

I prob give it around a 45 to 55 percent chance to hit 3x right now. Prob have a much better idea once we see the Discount Tue number as well as the rest of the weekday numbers.

Edited July 21, 2019 by Porthos

[Sunny Max]

13 minutes ago, a2k said:

SMH dropped that much after a July ow and did 2.86x.

July weekend drops can get ugly but overall legs can be very good.

That's minimum range of TLK  ... i m seeing $550 M ..

[Alex SciChannel]

12 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Why do you assume this?

Because Summer blockbuster family movies tend to have a Sunday drop below 20% due to out of school matinees meaning inflated evening income

[HeatSeeker]

Saw TLK last night in 3D.  It was okay, passable enough as a remake but it definitely lacked the charm of the original.  I echo the sentiments that it was too serious and the technological achievements with the CGI were at the expense of genuine emotional depth.  The characters looked so wooden when trying to convey emotion.  Plus, there were few genuine laughs in this.  

 

Still, there's enough to enjoy for the nostalgia.  I just don't know how much of an impact it will have with those that never saw the original. So it remains to be seen what kind of legs this will have after the initial buzz dies down a bit.  Lack of direct competition will help at least.

 

My least favorite of the 9 films I've seen in theaters this year.  Didn't hate it, but didn't love it.  The Jungle Book and Aladdin are miles ahead as far as the recent Disney remakes.  I even enjoyed Beauty & the Beast more.

Edited July 21, 2019 by HeatSeeker

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Then there is the elephant in the room, the reviews.  I think there is very little doubt that the reviews did depress the OW I mean, it only makes sense.  But just because it probably depressed it a little doesn't mean it's gonna damage it hugely.

 

And the reception seems fairly good, if not stratospheric. I certainly don't see a Shrek 3 type reaction out there, that's for sure.

There. There's your damn bingo square, appropriately applied this time @captainwondyful.

 

(Wasn't even intentionally invoked - though I did decide to call attention to it, as you can see )

Edited July 21, 2019 by Porthos

[Eric Duncan]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I’d like to know as well. The Sunday estimate is roughly equivalent to BatB’s hold, and this already is acting far more frontloaded than that. 

If you look at Deadline, they already admit that the numbers that they have are higher. Even Saturday is 600K higher than what Disney is reporting. Disregarding mixed signals, or a faulty source, that discrepancy is a wee bit interesting.

 

Outside of that, Disney is notorious for lowballing their estimates, often by a considerable amount.

 

Just going by OW, Toy Story 4 estimate was 118M, then it increased about 2.5% to 120.9M. Aladdin estimate was 86.1M 3-Day, then it increased 6.3% for 91.5M. Endgame 350M, then 2% to 357.1M, Dumbo 45M, then 2.2% to 45.99M. Mary Poppins Returns 22.2M, 5.8% to 23.5M. Solo 83.3M, 1.3% to 84.4. Infinity War 250M, 3.1% to 257.7. Black Panther 192M, 5.2% to 202M.

 

Yeah, not every Disney movie lowballs the numbers, but a lot of the time, it does happen, especially to the larger openers, and there's a substantial amount of money left on the table here, . By further comparison, Beauty and the Beast did 170M for estimates, then had a 2.8% increase to 174.75M. And what do you know, using that percentage brings us to 190.2M. Now do I think 190M is a lock for actuals? No. But the precedence is certainly there, and I fail to see why this movie would act any different compared to some of the other mega openers listed.

[MattW]

@Porthos  Re your post a couple pages back...

Back in the beginning of June before MiB, pets and X-Men all pooped out I wrote down some monthly guesses

 

- June would hold even with 2018 (very wrong about that one)

- July looks good with FFH and TLK but the the whole month hinges on those, +150m from 2018

-  August looks strong if nothing moves; there are so many releases even if a lot of them do terrible the month overall will be strong. +150m from 2018

- Sept 18 nearly matched Sept 17, so I don't expect this year to do much better if at all. Hold even.

- Oct 18 was the biggest october ever, this year could lose anywhere from 100-200m

- Nov I think will roughly match last year which was very strong from Oct holdovers and Grinch+Ralph making a combined 290m. Frozen has a big ask to carry the month, but I would guess it can do it. Stay even with last year.

- Dec is the big one. Cats will carry the month to +300m from last year. 

 

Overall July through December I think will be +400m compared to 2018.

[jedijake]

Family films rarely see less than a 3.0X in the summer. It's almost unheard of for successful family films. Shrek 3 is the only one I can think of. 

 

If you look at the remakes that have done well, only BatB had less than a 3.0 X. Of course, BatB also had an OW closer to TLK's so I see Portho's point about suppy and demand and the number of showings. But I also see the summer working against low multipliers. Maleficent had a 3.44 multiplier and we all know how Aladdin's been going. Both didn't do so well with reviews so perhaps while it made an impact this weekend, it will wear off after that.

 

Although there may be much more specific and even scathing criticisms against TLK that Aladdin didn't have. Aladdin had general criticisms but was seen as being better than expected. Not seeing that with TLK. People aren't running around saying "wow this was better than I thought it would be". There has been a sentiment of "well it was okay but the trailers made it look better". I've seen and heard a bit of that.

 

I still suspect a 3.25-3.30 multiplier domestically.

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Family films rarely see less than a 3.0X in the summer. It's almost unheard of for successful family films. Shrek 3 is the only one I can think of. 

 

If you look at the remakes that have done well, only BatB had less than a 3.0 X. Of course, BatB also had an OW closer to TLK's so I see Portho's point about suppy and demand and the number of showings. But I also see the summer working against low multipliers. Maleficent had a 3.44 multiplier and we all know how Aladdin's been going. Both didn't do so well with reviews so perhaps while it made an impact this weekend, it will wear off after that.

 

Although there may be much more specific and even scathing criticisms against TLK that Aladdin didn't have. Aladdin had general criticisms but was seen as being better than expected. Not seeing that with TLK. People aren't running around saying "wow this was better than I thought it would be". There has been a sentiment of "well it was okay but the trailers made it look better". I've seen and heard a bit of that.

 

I still suspect a 3.25-3.30 multiplier domestically.

Incredibles 2 had a 3.2x multiplier. basically every summer animated movie that grossed more than $50M opening weekend

Edited July 21, 2019 by Alex SciChannel

[pepsa]

41 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Why do you assume this?

 

40 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I’d like to know as well. The Sunday estimate is roughly equivalent to BatB’s hold, and this already is acting far more frontloaded than that. 

Tbh I would put money on it increasing. Disney almost alway underestimated it's movies. And the drop seems hard for the summer. Also all disneys drops seem way off again this weekend. 

[JB33]

10 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Family films rarely see less than a 3.0X in the summer. It's almost unheard of for successful family films. Shrek 3 is the only one I can think of. 

 

If you look at the remakes that have done well, only BatB had less than a 3.0 X. Of course, BatB also had an OW closer to TLK's so I see Portho's point about suppy and demand and the number of showings. But I also see the summer working against low multipliers. Maleficent had a 3.44 multiplier and we all know how Aladdin's been going. Both didn't do so well with reviews so perhaps while it made an impact this weekend, it will wear off after that.

 

Although there may be much more specific and even scathing criticisms against TLK that Aladdin didn't have. Aladdin had general criticisms but was seen as being better than expected. Not seeing that with TLK. People aren't running around saying "wow this was better than I thought it would be". There has been a sentiment of "well it was okay but the trailers made it look better". I've seen and heard a bit of that.

 

I still suspect a 3.25-3.30 multiplier domestically.

And even then, that movie opened in mid May. I know people in box office circles consider May to be a summer month but lots of people are still at school/working adults aren't on vacation yet.

[BadAtGender]

Huh, if I'm reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_box_office_records_set_by_Avatar right, then Avatar is still the highest grossing film of all time in 18 territories.

 

Bahrain, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, "East and West Africa", Hungary, Italy, Jamaica, Jordan, New Zealand, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Slovenia, Spain, Ukraine.

 

Some of those might be suspect (no notes on what previously held the record, for instance), but there's a few surprisingly large markets like Italy, Russia, and Spain in there.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, MattW said:

@Porthos  Re your post a couple pages back...

Back in the beginning of June before MiB, pets and X-Men all pooped out I wrote down some monthly guesses

 

- June would hold even with 2018 (very wrong about that one)

- July looks good with FFH and TLK but the the whole month hinges on those, +150m from 2018

-  August looks strong if nothing moves; there are so many releases even if a lot of them do terrible the month overall will be strong. +150m from 2018

Aug 2018 had mid-sized hits in Crazy Rich Asians (94.5m Aug | 71m Sep) and The Meg (112m Aug) as well as MI:6 (121.4m in Aug).

 

Not really sure how H&S will do.  Other releases might be up in the air.

8 minutes ago, MattW said:

- Sept 18 nearly matched Sept 17, so I don't expect this year to do much better if at all. Hold even.

It 2 should help here, I think, even if it doesn't come close to the first installment.  Ad Astra might have some potential to be a buzzy leggy movie for both Sep and Oct though.  And who the hell knows about Rambo: Last Blood.

8 minutes ago, MattW said:

- Oct 18 was the biggest october ever, this year could lose anywhere from 100-200m

Yeah, Oct 2018 was nutty with three mid-range hits.  2019 could be interesting as I'm higher on Maleficent: Mistress of Evil than many are.  But I could see 2018 beating it fairly easily.

 

Rest of the thoughts seemed pretty spot on.

[Amadeus]

Five months and six billion dollar movies. Sweet. 

 

84% Disney of course