Sam Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 11 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: Missed seeing you on the board. Thanks bud! Life been getting in the way, and I’ve been out of the country for quite a while. I was still lurking here and there until Marvel Hall H panel at SDCC demanded me to start making useless posts again. Appreciate all your posts and contributions to the forums. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdsacken Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 2 hours ago, AlexMA said: I expected 55% off for Lion King, we got 60, not bad by any stretch, as it will most likely go to 25 today, maybe 18 Wednesday, 17 Thursday (that would be the high-end), which would put it on track for $75-85 million or so 2nd weekend, so it is what it is. With that Monday for Far From Home I think we have to start accepting that $400 million is slowly turning into a pipe dream, so we'll probably have to settle for around $380-390 million, making this the 2nd highest grossing Spider-Man movie in North America. And of course it's already number 1 worldwide, so it all evens out. Toy Story 4 is again over Toy Story 3 so we're getting pretty damn close to locking down TS4 finishing over TS3 domestically, if it's not already there (maybe I'm just too conservative). Yeah, I think it's already there, looking at $430+ million in North America, which is probably more than many expected a week before it came out. Another Disney movie showing great legs, by now this shouldn't surprise us (especially coming from Pixar's track record). Aladdin is getting to $350 million, and yes that has been a certainty for some time now but I'm still not going to stop saying it because it's just so damn incredible. From maybe it gets to 200 million to oh it will certainly get to 250, 275, 290, 300?, 320??, 340???, what in going on here... 350???? Yeah, that was fun to watch these last two months. And lastly I'm pretty sure if they still have enough in the tank Disney might try to get Endgame to $2.8 billion. Tuesday jump be bigger. Opening day for some folks who want cheap tickets. Wednesday below 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiffy Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 Hmm figured it would be on par with I2's Monday. I guess it can potentially off-set with Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 35 minutes ago, Sam said: Executive producer/actor in EG, actor in FFH, and director/producer of TLK. All three billion grossers. Looks like John Favreau is the ultimate winner this year. Don’t forget showrunner for the first Star Wars live action show, The Mandalorian. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 (edited) $85 million second weekend should be the absolute minimum for TLK. Operative word being SHOULD. I expect the week to go something like: Monday-$21.6 m Tuesday: $30 m Wed-$20 m Thurs-$18 m Then around $90-$92 m weekend. Less than $85 million is not so good. Below $80 million would be just plain atrocious. Edited July 23, 2019 by jedijake 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taruseth Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 44 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said: These aren't early estimate. This is what I feel it can do on gut feel. Optimist... But hope it turns out right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jayhawk the Hutt Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 Should explode tonight, TS4's first Tuesday was massive and really the only standout day of the first week. Suspect 30m could be on the table, though that may be too much to ask for with the massive numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxalcamo Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 Congratulations to Jon Fraveu for another 1 billion movie 99.99% of the viewers have no idea he shoots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexMA Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 (edited) 34 minutes ago, cdsacken said: Tuesday jump be bigger. Opening day for some folks who want cheap tickets. Wednesday below 20. Oh don't get me wrong, I wrote 25 but I'm hoping for 28, and just imagine if it actually gets to 30. Notice no one is talking about 30, but secretly you know more than a couple here are thinking about it as a possibility for this movie. Edit: Also imagine if Favreau had a credit on Aladdin too, would have had 4 movies over 1 billion at the same time in theaters instead of "only" a puny 3. Also pretty sure that has to be a record, right? I don't think anyone has ever had 3 movies over 1 billion each at the same time in theaters. Edited July 23, 2019 by AlexMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 Remember that I2's first Monday was Father's Day so it was inflated. Too early to say much about TLK yet. Want to see what it's Tuesday jump is and then the rest of the weekdays. FWIW. If Charlie's number holds then that is that 17th largest Monday ever, but the 5th largest non Holiday Monday ever AE - 36.87 JW - 25.344 IW - 24.74 TDK - 24.49 current #5 non-Holiday TDKR - 19.39 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimiQ Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, AlexMA said: Oh don't get me wrong, I wrote 25 but I'm hoping for 28, and just imagine if it actually gets to 30. Notice no one is talking about 30, but secretly you know more than a couple here are thinking about it as a possibility for this movie. Edit: Also imagine if Favreau had a credit on Aladdin too, would have had 4 movies over 1 billion at the same time in theaters instead of "only" a puny 3. Also pretty sure that has to be a record, right? I don't think anyone has ever had 3 movies over 1 billion each at the same time in theaters. Sam L Jackson this year 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 TLK did 23 mill in previews. Take that away from the 193 and you have 170. A 50% drop from that is 85. That's the number i think it settles in at this weekend. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 8 minutes ago, RamblinRed said: Remember that I2's first Monday was Father's Day so it was inflated. Too early to say much about TLK yet. Want to see what it's Tuesday jump is and then the rest of the weekdays. FWIW. If Charlie's number holds then that is that 17th largest Monday ever, but the 5th largest non Holiday Monday ever AE - 36.87 JW - 25.344 IW - 24.74 TDK - 24.49 current #5 non-Holiday TDKR - 19.39 Isn't Father's Day on Sunday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jiffy Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: Isn't Father's Day on Sunday? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XXR vs XXR Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 (edited) On Friday at 730am, TLK had sold 1935 tickets at my theater for the day. As of 830am, it has sold 1425 tickets for today. Lets assume a 3% bump for Friday to account for the hour difference, then a 25% drop today to account for discount ticket prices. Using just my theater as a linear extrapolation, we’d get $29.5m for today. Edited July 23, 2019 by VenomXXR 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted July 23, 2019 Author Share Posted July 23, 2019 25 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: $29.5m It is said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 (edited) 33 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said: Isn't Father's Day on Sunday? So 90M-ish second weekend. father's day is gonna result in an insane Sunday retention. Edited July 23, 2019 by Valonqar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyGossamer Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Valonqar said: So 90M-ish second weekend. father's day is gonna result in an insane Sunday retention. No. Mentioned Monday was a holiday for I2 because of Father's Day but Father's Day is always on a Sunday rather than a Monday. Edited July 23, 2019 by JohnnyGossamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexMA Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 38 minutes ago, JimiQ said: Sam L Jackson this year 🙂 According to Mojo Captain Marvel closed on the 4th of July and since Spider-Man opened on July 2nd, you are technically right, for 2 days Samuel L. Jackson had 3 movies in theaters that either made it over $1 billion or would in the near future.\ But I'll do you one better, he didn't have a weekend with those three, Favreau did, actually all three were within the top 11 for this past weekend in North America. Also by the time Endgame is out of theaters The Lion King will be well over $1 billion, so Jon will have multiple weekends with 3 of his movies all over $1 billion at the same time. Top that Mr. Jackson, top that! No but seriously, that's crazy for both, especially in Jon Favreau's case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted July 23, 2019 Share Posted July 23, 2019 @baumer at best a 50% drop from the weekend minus previews is under 85m (84.3) with how gangbusters the dailies "should" be, I dont understand the setting up for disappointment if it behaves normally for a film this size. And the ridiculousness of some already determining a line that is disastrous is down right crazy for a box office forum discussing actual numbers, not hopes and dreams. This summer has really bugged the crap out of my statistics side as that is seen by a lot here as a negative instead of as the legitimate data we actually have to look at. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
