Weekend Thread: Estimates - Midway 17.5, Sleep 14.1, Fire 12.8, Xmas 11.6, Terminatah 10.8, Jokah 9.2, Mal2 8

[DlAMONDZ]

WB got lucky with Joker. All the free publicity and WOM is why Joker did well on OW and overall

 

Their marketing post Suicide Squad has been piss poor. With the exception of a few outliers (It) they haven't been able to conjure up any major hype for any of their properties since

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

Was gonna say swap Doc Sleep and Shazam release dates but WB had La Llorona there.
 

1	N	Avengers: Endgame	Walt Disney	$357,115,007		4,662	$76,601	$357,115,007	1
2	(4)	Captain Marvel	Walt Disney	$8,312,751	-9%	2,435	$3,414	$413,841,798	8
3	(1)	The Curse of La Llorona	Warner Bros.	$8,045,744	-69%	3,372	$2,386	$41,830,045	2
4	(3)	Breakthrough	20th Century…	$6,806,342	-40%	2,913	$2,337	$26,616,572	3
5	(2)	Shazam!	Warner Bros.	$5,583,903	-66%	3,631	$1,538	$131,213,630	4

 

However WB had 0 releases in Jan and March. So maybe have Shazam in Nov and DRS in Jan or March. Maybe even Shazam could have benefited in Jan soon after AQM?

 

August would have been perfect. A barren month, a movie that plays well with families, get in a few weeks of school holidays? As soon as AQM hit that billion, and the buzz for CM was evidently pointing to huge numbers, Shazam should have been moved to August. For me, that was WB's biggest mistake this year.

 

[reddevil19]

1 minute ago, DlAMONDZ said:

WB got lucky with Joker. All the free publicity and WOM is why Joker did well on OW and overall

 

Their marketing post Suicide Squad has been piss poor. With the exception of a few outliers (It) they haven't been able to conjure up any major hype for any of their properties since

Yeah, sure. Ignore Aquaman, Wonder Woman, Kong Skull Island (their last minute marketing alone dragged it upwards for a decent opening, when it wasn't tracking well), The Meg, Dunkirk, A Star Is Born, Rampage (compare that to Skyscraper - they knew how to sell The Rock), The Nun, etc.

[titanic2187]

13 minutes ago, DlAMONDZ said:

WB got lucky with Joker. All the free publicity and WOM is why Joker did well on OW and overall

 

Their marketing post Suicide Squad has been piss poor. With the exception of a few outliers (It) they haven't been able to conjure up any major hype for any of their properties since

And their confidence to push Joker in Venice. At least the buzz start off beautifully before controversy hit

[Alli]

Teenagers drive the horror genre to success these days, but DS is more adult horror.

[Firepower]

50 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

I think you'll find most people didn't actually give a shit about CNN and all that controversy, especially outside of North America. WB played it brilliantly going down the festival route, marketing it as a prestige pic, and grabbing Europe (who then ended up loving the movie, which accounts for legs, but it also out-opened expectations). Blair Rich has also been President of Worldwide Marketing since Jan 2018. So they also had Aquaman, A Star is Born, Crazy Rich Asian, Rampage, Ready Player One, The Meg, even Crimes of Grindlewald (which, yes, under-performed, but that was a similar case of a drop in audience interest, plus baggage around the cast and a shit reception).

 

So, I really don't see why you're dumping this year's misfires at marketing's feet exclusively. Some of the marketing wasn't stellar, yes, but their slate wasn't great either. Now, if Birds of Prey opens under 50 million, then that IS exclusively down to the so-far non-existent marketing. 

I agree that WB marketing team is one of the best in the industry. If they can't sell the movie, then nobody can. Some people think that marketing is everything, but that's not true at all, there are many factors in any success story. If your movie doesn't look appealing and audiences just don't want to see it, then even the best marketing in the world won't save it, it's as simple as that. Birds of Prey could be hurt by Suicide Squad reception and maybe some will be turned off by "woke" aspect. There's just surprisingly little buzz about it, maybe that's gonna change, we'll see.

Edited November 9, 2019 by Firepower

[Alli]

The controversy definitely played a big part in Joker' success. They were discussing the movie on the news. Other movies are not given this type of attention. You can't just buy that kind of marketing. 

 

The movie was good, but let's not kid ourselves, the controversy helped making it a big success.

Edited November 9, 2019 by Alli

[BoxOfficeZ]

56 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

BR2049 all over again. 
I say time and again that older audiences are just not coming out like they used to. So when you make a sequel to a movie that’s a beloved film of a much older generation, well you’re reliant on them showing up for it to be successful. 
The younger moviegoers whom, let’s be fair, are propping up the theatrical business almost single-handedly, aren’t necessarily spending their money on DS as they haven’t seen The Shining! They probably know it’s meant to be great and have every intention of watching it one day, but they can tell from the marketing they need to see that movie first.  Just like what happened with Blade Runner. 
If there’s one thing to be learnt from what makes big money these days it’s realising that younger moviegoers like to be part of the conversation. The Shining isn’t their conversation - simple as that. 

Making sequels to cult classics of yesteryear is a risky business.  Older audiences are proving time and again that they’re not interested in showing up for these kinds of movies.  They’re to blame. 

Makes me wonder about Dune. 

[Firepower]

2 minutes ago, BoxOfficeZ said:

Makes me wonder about Dune. 

I think Dune could do better than BR2049 because of Christmas release date, as long as its pacing is better.

[Nova]

Sure the controversy helped The Joker a bit but it in no way helped it reach the heights that it did. Movies are embedded in controversies more than you think and while again it helps, it doesn’t explain hundreds of millions of dollars at the box office. Joker is going to be the first rated R film to reach a billion because the movie connected with audiences. Not to go off topic a bit but if you watch the protests going on world wide, the Joker has been a symbol for many of them. Whether the character is meant to be seen that way is another discussion but the bottom line is the Joker controversy didn’t help the way so many of you assume it did. It was a movie that audiences connected to hence why its legs are what they are. 

Edited November 9, 2019 by Nova

[RJ 95]

14 minutes ago, Alli said:

The controversy definitely played a big part in Joker' success. They were discussing the movie on the news. Other movies are not given this type of attention. You can't just buy that kind of marketing. 

 

The movie was good, but let's not kid ourselves, the controversy helped making it a big success.

Just in US, nobody care about that supposedly "controversy" in rest of the world. In Europe Joker's best market, it's purely WOM and of course with Golden Lion win in Venice. Even more in Asia, they don't even know if there is any controversy to begin with.

 

Just look at some Europe site where audience put their review and compare Joker's audience rating with other SH movie. In those countries, Joker consistently at least in top 3 of best SH movie. What will you describe this ?

 

Edited November 9, 2019 by RJ 95

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

WB needs a new marketing team lmfao

Short memory 😂

[Alli]

11 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

Just in US, nobody care about that supposedly "controversy" in rest of the world. In Europe Joker's best market, it's purely WOM and of course with Golden Lion win in Venice. Even more in Asia, they don't even know if there is any controversy to begin with.

 

Just look at some Europe site where audience put their review and compare Joker's audience rating with other SH movie. In those countries, Joker consistently at least in top 3 of best SH movie. What will you describe this ?

 

I'm in Europe and the Joker "controversy" was all over the news. It's a good movie, as i said. But it being discussed on the news raised people's curiosity. Don't get me wrong, people liked the movie, i'm not disputing that, just that it got tons of free publicity other movies wouldn't get

Edited November 9, 2019 by Alli

[filmlover]

The numbers for Doctor Sleep are low to the point where it goes beyond a simple marketing problem. People were clearly just not here for a sequel to The Shining (especially one in which Kubrick and Nicholson, the two things everyone associates with the original, had zero involvement).

[Alli]

DUNE should be fine as long as they make it an epic adventure. If they make it pretentious or slow it will flop.

[Valonqar]

Doctor Sleep is a stupid title. Doesn't evoke excitement or horror or anything. I get that the book bears the same so they had no choice. But it's a bad title.

[La Binoche]

Mike Flanagan doesn't know how to make a scary movie. Or a scary anything (Hill House was a bore too). 

[reddevil19]

6 minutes ago, Alli said:

DUNE should be fine as long as they make it an epic adventure

That's pretty much the one thing it won't be.

Beautiful-looking? Amazing score? Great effects, costumes, acting? Most likely yes. Epic adventure? Nah.

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Most people who were wrong about Joker not doing well cannot get it through their heads that it's well received and that it is a big hit so they try to downplay it at every turn. It's just like the people who can't get over Captain Marvel being successful.

Haven’t seen much of this tbh. Got any specific examples in mind?

[grim22]

Just realized that with Joker crossing 300M, January is now the only month without a 300M grossing movie.