THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[narniadis]

7 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I am really loving the frozen 2 performance. 

Just hoping that somehow it crosses 500m Domestic. 

 

Hope really really hard then cause that is epic top of the line (in other words there isnt a reason yet for it to go that high)

[Bart Allen]

Have the actual numbers come in for Rise of Skywalker yet?

[AdrianL]

Ralph Breaks the Internet had a 8.27 multiplier from this weekend in its run. Same multiplier for Frozen would be around 475m finish. 

Edited December 23, 2019 by AdrianL

[MrFanaticGuy34]

So far...there’s never been a movie over $500M+ DOM that didn’t get to $1B+ WW. All other $500M-movies got there, even films like TDK & Rogue One. So it don’t see why TROS would have a hard time getting there, if Disney wants it to make $1B WW.

[AdrianL]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

So far...there’s never been a movie over $500M+ DOM that didn’t get to $1B+ WW. All other $500M-movies got there, even films like TDK & Rogue One. So it don’t see why TROS would have a hard time getting there, if Disney wants it to make $1B WW.

It doesn't look like overseas will be below 500m so unless it collapses during the holiday 1b is happening. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Which films went up with actuals?

[MrFanaticGuy34]

4 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

It doesn't look like overseas will be below 500m so unless it collapses during the holiday 1b is happening. 

Exactly. $500-600M+ DOM is way too big of a number for a blockbuster to miss $1B WW.

Edited December 23, 2019 by MrFanaticGuy34

[narniadis]

Reminder as well that we may not full actuals from now till after January 1st. Disney tends to do better than other studios but WB is notorious for shutting down and giving estimates only. 

 

So for those wondering if it takes a while that is why. 

 

@MrFanaticGuy34 so far Jumanji, Frozen and SW9 have all gone up. 

[ThomasNicole]

13 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

So far...there’s never been a movie over $500M+ DOM that didn’t get to $1B+ WW. All other $500M-movies got there, even films like TDK & Rogue One. So it don’t see why TROS would have a hard time getting there, if Disney wants it to make $1B WW.

It will make 1B. This weekend are deflated both DOM / OS because Christmas is around the corner.

 

I’m expecting $ 550M both DOM and OS, holds this week should be very good around the world, Monday projections are already very great. 
 

 

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Reminder as well that we may not full actuals from now till after January 1st. Disney tends to do better than other studios but WB is notorious for shutting down and giving estimates only. 

 

So for those wondering if it takes a while that is why. 

 

@MrFanaticGuy34 so far Jumanji, Frozen and SW9 have all gone up. 

Ugh, that’s right, we’re in a 17 day estimate corridor      
 

[wildphantom]

2 hours ago, Justin4125 said:

You're acting like a 20 film build up entitles the film to a big box office run? 20+ movies in 10 years is as much a liability as it is a plus. EG made that much DESPITE releasing so many films in such a short time period. I dont think any franchise can make so many movies and maintain interest. Part of TFA's huge box office was the years long wait, as we've seen the SW can't support the same frequency of movies released...

 

Also I don't think anyone is disputing that SW is domestic box office royalty. Four decades of nostalgia is a powerful thing, the MCU built its audience without similar levels of intergenerational nostalgia

 

Lastly, I dont think we'll see a movie pull inflation adjusted numbers of A New Hope. The changing topography of cinema has all but ensured that (more competing mediums, fewer repeat viewings)

 

I want to finish with this. The MCU is more of a worldwide phenom precisely because it struck a chord in the zeitgeist in current time, whereas SW did it 40 years ago (hence the majority of its audience residing in mature markets). Again, no one is disputing SW drawing power, and I think people need to remember SW is much more than just these current films, the diminishing returns at the box office matter much less than people believe given the franchise's power as a multimedia franchise (merch, video games, books, rides (more successful than people think= now tv series). SW will rise again, its staying power is indisputable, that's much more than can be said about many one off box office surprises, which is why the success of this single film (TROS) cant be compared to other more recent hits (MCU is comfortably in another category given the level and consistency of its success over 11 years)

I don’t disagree with much of your sentiment. My post was more of a spirited retort to the hysterical proclamation from some that Star Wars is over as a major franchise.  
 

To those that believe that I think I speak for most of us when when I say:

 

 

*incidentally....GIF is from the 1995 film version of a classic US tv series from the early 70’s...called The Brady Bunch. 
A necessary disclaimer for those younglings on here that think pop culture started and ended with the MCU

Edited December 23, 2019 by wildphantom

[narniadis]

12 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Ugh, that’s right, we’re in a 17 day estimate corridor      
 

Yup, trying to get ahead of the questions and whining that new posters give for not realizing it we will make do as we do every year 😂

[redfirebird2008]

55 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

The one advantage to HP, Star Wars, LoTR and Titanic is Japan where tickets are at same level in last 25 years. So if Titanic did $200mn in Japan in 1998, it will be doing $150mn Approx today as there has been no inflation but moviegoing trend has declined.

 

Same for Potter 1 which did huge back then or Phantom Menace.

 

Besides, yeah all Potter films will adjust to Billion dollar. In fact most likely over 1.3 Bn most of them.

 

That’s pretty crazy/interesting for Japan. 

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That’s pretty crazy/interesting for Japan. 

FYI read this. http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201905310062.html.

 

Some of the chains did increase ticket price by around 5.5%(100 yen) early this year. That was 1st increase since 1993. But the market is unique reading from the article that because of Multiplex explosion admission has been on the upside since 1996. May be if domestic ticket prices did not increase that much admissions would have increase as well. I have a feeling in next few years we will add Discount Wednesday and other discount weekdays as well. Its inevitable as entertainment will move to AR/VR and TVs/Home projection getting so good,plexes would otherwise struggle to survive in most markets.

[KP1025]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

May be if domestic ticket prices did not increase that much admissions would have increase as well. I have a feeling in next few years we will add Discount Wednesday and other discount weekdays as well. Its inevitable as entertainment will move to AR/VR and TVs/Home projection getting so good,plexes would otherwise struggle to survive in most markets.

 

Or maybe tiered pricing for different movies (newest blockbusters versus older releases or smaller indie films).

[bamajagala]

31 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That’s pretty crazy/interesting for Japan. 

Japan has been devaluing it's currency for 20+ years in an effort to combat a trade imbalance.  Also has kept it's interest rates artificially low to promote growth.  It's been a long deflationary period that has no end in sight.

[CoolioD1]

4 hours ago, The Panda said:

I found 2 Popes much more entertaining.  Was engaged from start to finish and it wasn’t straight exposition.  The film is actually structured!

saw it a couple days ago and my own personal take away way that it was a toothless bore written by a hack piece of shit that can never go deeper than his subject's wikipedia page. there's literally like a fifteen minute flashback scene that's narrated by both popes reading pope francis's biography page back and forth. it's sort of insulting how basic it was. it's also the ugliest movie of the year and jonathan pryce being dubbed by some telemundo actor any time he spoke spanish was something out of a bad sketch. 

[Lucas]

Harry Potter is great and did great, now how's TROS doing?

[MovieMan89]

Not sure why anyone's assuming 500 DOM s a lock? A worse multi than TLJ certainly can't be ruled out considering the initial weekend performance. I think 500 is much closer to best case than worst case. TROS seems very likely to be the least attended Skywalker saga SW film (AOTC's 483m adjusted but doesn't have any PLF/3D inflation, so TROS probably needs 30m or so more to win). 

Edited December 23, 2019 by MovieMan89

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not sure why anyone's assuming 500 DOM s a lock? A worse multi than TLJ certainly can't be ruled out considering the initial weekend performance. I think 500 is much closer to best case than worst case. TROS seems very likely to be the least attended Skywalker saga SW film (AOTC's 483m adjusted but doesn't have any PLF/3D inflation, so TROS probably needs 30-40m more to win). 

Even if it performed at this point like Jedi it would be close to or over 500m literally due to where it is on the calendar. Even poorly received movies make better grosses at this point in the calendar as evidenced by the fact that Jedi still managed to pull 2.8x. While I wont use the word Lock, even Jedi Jat and his pessimistic view of ROSs behavior sees its performance this week as strong enough for 500m.