THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[Bart Allen]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Highly unlikely. Shouldn't be more than 56-57% at most. 

I know haha ~

 

But still should be most interesting, as this seems to be a performance that seems to be changing quite a bit.

[LonePirate]

First Fri to Sat drop:

TFA 42.7

TLJ 38.9

TROS 47.0

 

First Sat to Sun drop:

TFA 11.3

TLJ 19.8

TROS 15.1

 

[KP1025]

Is this a typo? Frozen 2 had the exact same gross on Saturday and Sunday?

 

Dec 20, 2019	3	$3,345,875	+76%	3,665	$913	$377,579,836	29
Dec 21, 2019	3	$4,730,574	+41%	3,665	$1,291	$382,484,314	30
Dec 22, 2019	3	$4,730,574	n/c	3,665	$1,291	$387,214,888	31

[Bart Allen]

1 minute ago, LonePirate said:

First Fri to Sat drop:

TFA 42.7

TLJ 38.9

TROS 47.0

 

First Sat to Sun drop:

TFA 11.3

TLJ 19.8

TROS 15.1

 

Yeah the closeness to Christmas Eve was something alright ~

[ChiSoxRox]

5 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Is this a typo? Frozen 2 had the exact same gross on Saturday and Sunday?

 

Dec 20, 2019	3	$3,345,875	+76%	3,665	$913	$377,579,836	29
Dec 21, 2019	3	$4,730,574	+41%	3,665	$1,291	$382,484,314	30
Dec 22, 2019	3	$4,730,574	n/c	3,665	$1,291	$387,214,888	31

Yes, Saturday's gross is missing 180k or so. (Weekend actual was 12.98 and this sums to 12.80)

[Bart Allen]

Deadline stated "Weekend 2 for Skywalker has to be steeper than -46%; and if Skywalker emulates Last Jedi‘s drop then it’s looking at a $53M second weekend."

[baumer]

4 hours ago, Thelasttroll said:

Harry Potter only had one billion dollar film

The box office has changed immeasurably in the last decade. When Potter came out there was no China explosion. There was no crazy insane Rush the way there is now to go to films on opening weekend. I'm not saying there wasn't big opening weekends back then because there was but Potter came out at a time way before places like China blew up and therefore probably would have had more than half of their films hit the billion dollar Mark if they were allowed in China.

[ViewerAnon]

I only have my phone at the moment, so someone please correct me if I’m wrong as I can’t hunt for data - if TROS makes $28-30M today, it should make at least that on Friday, no? I just don’t see how a catastrophic drop is possible with the calendar layout and that sort of Monday number.

[keysersoze123]

I am definitely thinking sub 30%, even 25% drop today. Already by noon PST at MTC2 its at 60% of final D3 number. MTC1 is at 55% of final D3 numbers. So 30m+ monday could happen.

[Bart Allen]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

The box office has changed immeasurably in the last decade. When Potter came out there was no China explosion. There was no crazy insane Rush the way there is now to go to films on opening weekend. I'm not saying there wasn't big opening weekends back then because there was but Potter came out at a time way before places like China blew up and therefore probably would have had more than half of their films hit the billion dollar Mark if they were allowed in China.

Yeah, or else Part II would have gotten to around $1.7 billion

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

@keysersoze123 Got the Friday adjustment right but was slightly underoptimistic on Sun  
 

 

[baumer]

I saw rise of Skywalker today and it's just I really confusing film. It's just seems like they dropped the ball on this one. They should have let JJ Abrams take the reins on this right from the beginning and not have them give anything up. Right now I'm giving the film a 6 out of 10. The last half-hour the movie is incredibly well done but the rest of it is just really mumbles and jumbled and there's a whole bunch of things that are not really explained at all LOL they are just there

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

1 minute ago, ViewerAnon said:

I only have my phone at the moment, so someone please correct me if I’m wrong as I can’t hunt for data - if TROS makes $28-30M today, it should make at least that on Friday, no? I just don’t see how a catastrophic drop is possible with the calendar layout and that sort of Monday number.

Yes theoretically. Wednesday through Saturday should all be pretty similar gross wise, maybe even close to flat day to day.

[Ryan Reynolds]

3 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

Deadline stated "Weekend 2 for Skywalker has to be steeper than -46%; and if Skywalker emulates Last Jedi‘s drop then it’s looking at a $53M second weekend."

In theory it doesn't have to be more. Closer to Rogue One drops.

[LonePirate]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am definitely thinking sub 30%, even 25% drop today. Already by noon PST at MTC2 its at 60% of final D3 number. MTC1 is at 55% of final D3 numbers. So 30m+ monday could happen.

First Sun to Mon drops:

TFA: 33.8 (12/21)

TLJ: 58.0 (12/18)

TROS: ? (12/23)

[narniadis]

I wish peoplw would stop responding to the trolls 😂

[sfran43]

 

[Bart Allen]

1 minute ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

In theory it doesn't have to be more. Closer to Rogue One drops.

So it could potentially be like Rogue One in that it drops 59%?

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Low to mid 90s could (emphasis on could) happen. It shouldn't drop a crazy amount even when you factor in previews.

[ViewerAnon]

With entirely too much time on my hands during winter hiatus, I took Jat's Monday range and extrapolated 2nd weekend numbers based on THE FORCE AWAKENS (i.e., TFA made $40,109,742 its first Monday and $49,325,663 on Friday, giving that day a 1.229 multiplier).

 

If Monday is $28 million...

 

Friday (*1.229): $34,412,000

Saturday (*1.414): $39,592,000

Sunday (*1.075): $30,100,000

 

Weekend: $104,104,000

If Monday is $30 million...

 

Friday: $36,870,000

Saturday: $42,420,000

Sunday: $32,250,000

 

Weekend: $111,540,000

Even with considerably worse multipliers (TFA's first Friday was Christmas, for example), I think anyone looking for a devastating second weekend drop is gonna be a little disappointed.

Edited December 23, 2019 by ViewerAnon