Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[baumer]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Ok, but 575 is not TLJ’s multi. No reason to believe it does more than a 3x (530)

Well I haven't getting to a 3.2 multiplier. I forgot the Last Jedi failed to reach a 3 multiplier

[Menor the Destroyer]

27 minutes ago, baumer said:

I've said for 2 years now that this will have a better multiplier than the Last Jedi. This film is definitely divisive but it's not hated the way the Last Jedi was. I'm going with over a 3 multiplier and I think it has a good chance of getting the 600.

Audience metrics pretty much all show worse WOM than TLJ. Better legs will be due to the better calendar not better reactions.

[cheesypoofs]

7 minutes ago, Menor said:

Audience metrics pretty much all show worse WOM than TLJ. Better legs will be due to the better calendar not better reactions.

I disagree with that

[a2k]

Had SWs followed Hobbit

303 937

258 798 (pushed to 800)

250 773 (601 using TLJ's 620)

 

Spin-offs in between and TFA's massive over-performance makes it tough to follow Hobbits but something like

937

700 (3.18 * 220)

700

should have been achievable compared to 937 620 550.

Same thing in other markets brings in 500 more ww from last 2 movies, and home market/merchandising also gets affected. Well loved characters sell more Funkos naturally.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, cheesypoofs said:

I disagree with that

Ok, well, do you have any evidence to back it up? PostTrak and Cinemascore are both worse than TLJ.

[ThomasNicole]

Very good Monday 

 

Expecting for the rest of the week something like:

19 - 32 - 31 - 33 - 33 - 25

 

So around $ 380M, which locks $ 500M. Expecting $ 550-575M finish, maybe it can leg to $ 600M considering lack of strong competition, but we’ll see. 
 

Still, way more than the movie itself deserves. See this doing $ 1.1-1.2B being so coward and lazy is depressing. 

 

[ThomasNicole]

I also think the good legs has more to do with better calendar configuration + no breakout movie to compete. 
 

 

[a2k]

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%YD	%LW	Thr	Per Thr	Total Gross	D
-	(2)	Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony Pictures	$7,350,000	-22%	+105%	4,227	$1,739	$109,666,512	11
-	(7)	Richard Jewell	Warner Bros.	$555,000	-32%	+4%	2,502	$222	$10,090,890	11
-	(11)	A Beautiful Day in the Ne…	Sony Pictures	$410,000	-14%	-4%	1,524	$269	$52,942,417	32
-	(-)	Playing with Fire	Paramount Pi…	$48,000	-4%	-24%	287	$167	$43,781,832	46
-	(-)	Terminator: Dark Fate	Paramount Pi…	$10,000	-42%	-38%	120	$83	$62,208,952	53

Edited December 24, 2019 by a2k

[jedijake]

This movie will probably end up between $480-$490 million by the end of the holiday. No way this movie will have made 90% of its total run by then. If it has legs enough to make it to $480-$490 million, it will be able to leg it out to at LEAST $570 milion. 84%-86% is on par with what the other SW movies by the end of the holiday.

[excel1]

Def seems its opening weekend was severely deflated due to opening so close to the holiday. we'll see where it finishes. 

 

either way last Jedi rocks 

[baumer]

34 minutes ago, Menor said:

Audience metrics pretty much all show worse WOM than TLJ. Better legs will be due to the better calendar not better reactions.

 Nothing will be worse received than the Last Jedi. I don't care what the audience metric say. The Last Jedi made people angry. This one has at least a split decision LOL. I pretty much bet my membership here that it has a better multiplier than the Last Jedi

[Ryan Reynolds]

Will TRoS keep a 50/50 OS ratio?

[excel1]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 Nothing will be worse received than the Last Jedi. I don't care what the audience metric say. The Last Jedi made people angry. This one has at least a split decision LOL. I pretty much bet my membership here that it has a better multiplier than the Last Jedi

The Last Jedi opening where it opened (2 weeks before xmas) may have made its legs look worse than the WOM was. ROS's opening seems to have been severely deflated due to opening so close to the holiday.

 

Watch ROS match Jedi's total 

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I also think the good legs has more to do with better calendar configuration + no breakout movie to compete. 
 

 

That TROS's opening days bleed into the holidays unlike TLJ and deflate the FSS a little while helping legs is a very reasonable assumption. TLJ dropped 11.3% from heights of TFA while TROS even as a finale dropped a further 19.3% while headed for better legs.

 

- If TROS's ow fall is attributed to it's own reception spreading like a fire then better legs wouldn't make sense. So holiday configuration gets the credit for deflating ow and improving legs.

- If not the holidays then TROS's deflated ow has to be due to TLJ's mixed reception & legs (lowest for a 50+ Fri opener in Dec?), followed by TROS's good one helping legs.

 

One of those 2 or a mix of both, but can't be neither of them.

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, baumer said:

 Nothing will be worse received than the Last Jedi. I don't care what the audience metric say. The Last Jedi made people angry. This one has at least a split decision LOL. I pretty much bet my membership here that it has a better multiplier than the Last Jedi

It will almost certainly have a better multi but that doesn't mean reception is better. Anyway you seem to be ignoring a significant amount of people who really enjoyed TLJ.

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, baumer said:

 Nothing will be worse received than the Last Jedi. I don't care what the audience metric say. The Last Jedi made people angry. This one has at least a split decision LOL. I pretty much bet my membership here that it has a better multiplier than the Last Jedi

Of course TROS will have a better multiplier. Menor literally just said that. There will be no way to tell how much is reception vs calendar, but I tend to agree with them that reception is actually a bit worse than TLJ, and I think your personal dislike for that movie may be clouding your judgement. 

[titanic2187]

21 minutes ago, baumer said:

 Nothing will be worse received than the Last Jedi. I don't care what the audience metric say. The Last Jedi made people angry. This one has at least a split decision LOL. I pretty much bet my membership here that it has a better multiplier than the Last Jedi

I guess TLJ was the only movie in the recent year that got me angry when leaving the theater, no amount of suck can get me that angry. 

 

Ohh....there is another, FB2

[charlie Jatinder]

From early looks of it $20-21mn. Lets see how it goes.

 

F2 seems like 4.5

[TwoMisfits]

Those who don't like TROS are usually displaying indifference...

Those who didn't like TLJ usually displayed anger...

 

Indifferent people don't tend to drive folks away...angry folks do...

 

See BvS vs JL...1.99x vs 2.46x - neither had a great multiplier, but indifference did win the day...well, that, and the lower open...so it does set up the same as TLJ vs TROS (anger vs indifference...and lower open:)...

[narniadis]

8 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

From early looks of it $20-21mn. Lets see how it goes.

 

F2 seems like 4.5

Frozen will definitely fall from here. Most theaters will close before evening showings. Busy / great daytime business will make up some of the loss hence why it looks so good. 

 

Be surprised if RoS manages to stay at 20m

Edited December 24, 2019 by narniadis