TENET Weekend Thread | 20.2M opening with previews and Canada | RIP Movies 1888-2020

[filmlover]

17 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

The only problem is the studios got out of the smaller movie game a few years ago. They don’t make ‘em anymore. 

I think low-budget horror movies like Candyman could do well in the current environment since the 18-34 demographic seems more ready to go back to an indoor theater (2/3 of the opening audience for New Mutants was from that age group). Little financial risk too. Probably the only genre that could survive at the box office at the moment.

Edited September 7, 2020 by filmlover

[Blaze Heatnix]

Yeah, studios should think straight. What's easier to digest? A horror movie ( Candyman ) that probably doesn't need to be seen twice to be understood, OR a 200 million budgeted movie that's so complex even for Nolan fans and got a B CinemaScore?

 

People still go to theaters. I just think Tenet wasn't the right movie to get released. Is Tenet a movie that'll make you excited to return to cinemas? I'm sorry, but that's a big no.

 

Unhinged, New Mutants ( delayed 4/5 times ) and Tenet would never be the movies to get people back to theaters. Hell, even without Covid-19, I wouldn't be watching any of these flicks. 

 

I think Black Widow / Wonder Woman 1984 could be the ones to get people excited. 

[Maggie]

8 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

 

I think Black Widow / Wonder Woman 1984 could be the ones to get people excited. 

 

As i said above, i just don't think it is a great idea to release a blockbuster straight outta gate. Let people familiarize with going to the cinema again. Start slow, and reap the benefits later on.

Edited September 7, 2020 by Maggie

[TLK]

Sony announced a bunch of low budget movie releases in the next couple of months. Other studios could have done it as well.

[lorddemaxus]

This is probably gonna be way off but Bloomberg just reported that D+ grossed $12 mil over the weekend on mobile devices. This article from Antenna Data shows that 35% of people paid for D+ using mobile devices on Hamilton weekend: https://medium.com/antennaanalytics/the-real-impact-of-hamilton-for-disney-347fdb0ffc8d. Using that same percentage, D+ grossed about $34.28 mil this weekend. 

Edited September 7, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[TLK]

21 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

This is probably gonna be way off but Bloomberg just reported that D+ grossed $12 mil over the weekend on mobile devices. This article from Antenna Data shows that 35% of people paid for D+ using mobile devices on Hamilton weekend: https://medium.com/antennaanalytics/the-real-impact-of-hamilton-for-disney-347fdb0ffc8d. Using that same percentage, D+ grossed about $34.28 mil this weekend. 

Is the $12 million number global or USA/Canada only ?

[HouseOfTheSun]

23 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

This is probably gonna be way off but Bloomberg just reported that D+ grossed $12 mil over the weekend on mobile devices. This article from Antenna Data shows that 35% of people paid for D+ using mobile devices on Hamilton weekend: https://medium.com/antennaanalytics/the-real-impact-of-hamilton-for-disney-347fdb0ffc8d. Using that same percentage, D+ grossed about $34.28 mil this weekend. 

I’m not sure using the sign ups number would be the best way to go about calculating how many people would pay for a the premier access on mobile. Paying for a sub vs paying for a movie purchase are a lot different. I think at best it might give the floor for Mulan 

[lorddemaxus]

24 minutes ago, TLK said:

Is the $12 million number global or USA/Canada only ?

Global.

18 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

I’m not sure using the sign ups number would be the best way to go about calculating how many people would pay for a the premier access on mobile. Paying for a sub vs paying for a movie purchase are a lot different. I think at best it might give the floor for Mulan 

Again, I could be way off. If you have anything regarding the percentage of TVOD sales that happen on mobile, that would be more accurate. I personally think it would be similar since both subscribing and paying for the movie happen through the app.

Edited September 7, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[RealLyre]

nvm

Edited September 7, 2020 by RealLyre

[HouseOfTheSun]

15 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Global.

Again, I could be way off. If you have anything regarding the percentage of TVOD sales that happen on mobile, that would be more accurate. I personally think it would be similar since both subscribing and paying for the movie happen through the app.

Nope no data on that ( I’m not sure anyone has tracked that yet, but they might now). So your figures are the best we have to go upon as of now. 

[Jamiem]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

This is probably gonna be way off but Bloomberg just reported that D+ grossed $12 mil over the weekend on mobile devices. This article from Antenna Data shows that 35% of people paid for D+ using mobile devices on Hamilton weekend: https://medium.com/antennaanalytics/the-real-impact-of-hamilton-for-disney-347fdb0ffc8d. Using that same percentage, D+ grossed about $34.28 mil this weekend. 

Incorrect that graph is from Netflix and they say as much in the accompanying paragraph “We already know, from Netflix, that only 30% of Sign-ups occur on mobile devices — and that number is likely to be much lower during a global pandemic.” Netflix also offers mobile only plans in some regions so that will skew things also the graph shows a shift in how users change device over time. 
 

 

I still don’t think Sensor Tower provides an accurate picture but if you wanted a more realistic impact it’s probably the first statistic they give “Our data shows that the real impact to Sign-ups was far greater than that – we saw a a 641% increase in Sign-ups over the same time period(not 74%).” which is about 8 times the figure which would translate into $96m (note that I also don’t think that is accurate for what it’s worth) 

[lorddemaxus]

23 minutes ago, Jamiem said:

Incorrect that graph is from Netflix and they say as much in the accompanying paragraph “We already know, from Netflix, that only 30% of Sign-ups occur on mobile devices — and that number is likely to be much lower during a global pandemic.” Netflix also offers mobile only plans in some regions so that will skew things also the graph shows a shift in how users change device over time. 
 

 

I still don’t think Sensor Tower provides an accurate picture but if you wanted a more realistic impact it’s probably the first statistic they give “Our data shows that the real impact to Sign-ups was far greater than that – we saw a a 641% increase in Sign-ups over the same time period(not 74%).” which is about 8 times the figure which would translate into $96m (note that I also don’t think that is accurate for what it’s worth) 

Yeah sorry, I just read the graph, and didn't read if they were talking about Netflix or D+.

[CloneWars]

I know people are spinning Tenet's number, but there really is no spinning it. The number is bad. Like crazy bad. Yes, I know there's a pandemic and major cities are closed, but this number is even lower than the lowest predictions out there. Yes, the pandemic is to blame, but WB should have stood their ground against Nolan. The release date seemed like a bad idea, and it was. Also, the whole Labor Day argument is dumb. Let's be real here. The movie is opening so low not because of Labor Day but because we are in a pandemic, major cities are closed, many people don't know theaters are reopened, and many people don't want to go to the movies right now. 

 

I also see people posting about WW84 coming out. Let's get real, it's not coming out in October and most likely not this year. As a matter of fact, I think all major 2020 releases get moved now. If Tenet did decent but not great numbers, things would stay, but this number is god awful. No studio, and I mean no studio is going to risk a tentpole after they saw what Tenet did. And, man, that number is probably $10-$12M for the actual weekend. There's a very high probability it makes less than $10M next week. I'm thinking $7-$8M.

 

With that said, this would have likely opened to $50-$70M pre-pandemic like other Nolan films. Sure, some people may have found the marketing unappealing, but pre-pandemic it should have had an opening like that. WOM and legs is a different beast altogher.

 

As far legs goes, sure when and if NY and the rest of CA open, I am sure it will give it some extra $$$, but honestly, this probably won't make much more than The Prestige domestically and likely won't hit $100M.

 

How will this affect Nolan going forward? I am confident WB will give Nolan another chance. After all, the pandemic is going to get 100% of the blame. However, his budget may be slightly smaller, like $150M, but I think that would have more to do with studios cutting down on spending after the pandemic. 

 

Anyway, the rest of 2020 is dead minus potentially some smaller releases

 

RIP 2020

 

RIP Box Office

 

All hail Bad Boys 4 Life, #1 movie of the decade

[xiazhi]

That number has so many add-ons that its true FSS is probably just half of that

[elcaballero]

48 minutes ago, CloneWars said:

I know people are spinning Tenet's number, but there really is no spinning it. The number is bad. Like crazy bad. Yes, I know there's a pandemic and major cities are closed, but this number is even lower than the lowest predictions out there. Yes, the pandemic is to blame, but WB should have stood their ground against Nolan. The release date seemed like a bad idea, and it was. Also, the whole Labor Day argument is dumb. Let's be real here. The movie is opening so low not because of Labor Day but because we are in a pandemic, major cities are closed, many people don't know theaters are reopened, and many people don't want to go to the movies right now. 

 

I also see people posting about WW84 coming out. Let's get real, it's not coming out in October and most likely not this year. As a matter of fact, I think all major 2020 releases get moved now. If Tenet did decent but not great numbers, things would stay, but this number is god awful. No studio, and I mean no studio is going to risk a tentpole after they saw what Tenet did. And, man, that number is probably $10-$12M for the actual weekend. There's a very high probability it makes less than $10M next week. I'm thinking $7-$8M.

 

With that said, this would have likely opened to $50-$70M pre-pandemic like other Nolan films. Sure, some people may have found the marketing unappealing, but pre-pandemic it should have had an opening like that. WOM and legs is a different beast altogher.

 

As far legs goes, sure when and if NY and the rest of CA open, I am sure it will give it some extra $$$, but honestly, this probably won't make much more than The Prestige domestically and likely won't hit $100M.

 

How will this affect Nolan going forward? I am confident WB will give Nolan another chance. After all, the pandemic is going to get 100% of the blame. However, his budget may be slightly smaller, like $150M, but I think that would have more to do with studios cutting down on spending after the pandemic. 

 

Anyway, the rest of 2020 is dead minus potentially some smaller releases

 

RIP 2020

 

RIP Box Office

 

All hail Bad Boys 4 Life, #1 movie of the decade

You mean Oscar Nominee Bad Boys 4 Life?

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, The Panda said:

It wouldn’t be a weekend thread without a random shitpost

 

 

nAtuRe iS hEaLiNg.

 

ps. just realised the cap alphabets make ARSE. totally unintentional.

Edited September 8, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, CloneWars said:

The number is bad. Like crazy bad.

I know the start is awful, but yeah I will wait for 2nd weekend drop to say it bad. If 2nd weekend is 7.5mn plus, that will point toward good legs and perhaps around $80-90mn total, once West coast and NY open.

 

Canada in 12 days is around $55-60mn equivalent.

 

[excel1]

10 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

knows better than studios and filmmakers what they should/are gonna do

That's kind of what we do here considering this is a box office prediction, review and discussion forum... 

Edited September 8, 2020 by excel1

[excel1]

On 9/6/2020 at 8:29 PM, excel1 said:

Blocking out all of the noise and bullshit, here is the deal:

 

Someone had to do it. The first "big" movie to come out was always going to be a guinea pig and likely struggle. The lockdowns are nearly 6 months in at this point - everyone is used to theaters being closed and as has been noted, 2/3rd of the country did not know their theater was opened or that this was coming out. Part of the blame likes with WB for a terrible marketing campaign though on the other hand, very well may have been simply hedging their bets. Interestingly enough, even if the word spreads these next few days with "OMG TENET FLOPPED!" that actually may help it because by far the most common reaction will be "OMG THEATERS ARE OPEN!?!?"

 

Regardless, this is just step 1, it had to happen and initial struggles were inevitable. No matter what, WB deserve kudos for actually having the balls to take the plunge and start it up. Things will only improve from here, especially with rumors of a vaccine coming within the next 2 months. While I would say it looks to be extremely foolish to release Wonder Woman 1984 in just a few weeks, it wouldn't surprise me if theaters are really ready to roll come Thanksgiving with Bond and are fairly normalized by December - assuming a vaccine. 

 

Let's just hope for:

-Decent Tenet holds from here on out

-Continued "decline" in virus spread

-Continued development of effective vaccines

 

And theaters will really be able to stretch their legs soon. My guess is Bond will be the first movie to do any real money domestically & globally. Wonder Woman 1984 in mid December could be primed for a serious explosion, though. 

 

QFT

[Dementeleus]

In the tradition of Puerto Rico, I had to do it.

 

Edited September 8, 2020 by Plain Old Tele