Weekend Thread (7/16-18) | Space Jam 31.6, Widow 26.3, Escape Room 8.8, F9 7.6, Boss Baby 4.7

[TwoMisfits]

32 minutes ago, Macleod said:

 

Disney doesn't get all the PVOD revenue, either, so the $60 million last weekend was a 'white lie.'  !!!

And they didn't report it this weekend!

 

A correction to my analysis from last weekend: Disney doesn’t get 100% of their Disney+ Premier revenue many studio financial sources have informed me. On a PVOD release, they have to share ~15% of the revenues with platform providers such as Amazon Firestick, AppleTV+, etc. So that $60M global PVOD hooray last weekend is really around an estimated net $51M back to Disney. While it’s not as steep as the 40% they have to hand over to exhibition, once again, Disney is burning through an ancillary window faster and bound to walk away with less money in the end than they typically would on a regular theatrical release.

 

https://deadline.com/2021/07/black-widow-mcu-record-second-weekend-box-office-drop-disney-piracy-1234795325/

 

So, if we give them $100M VOD, that's only $85M in the pocket.

 

To replace $ for $ $85M in that profit (not counting all the international piracy that has tanked their WW numbers), under their normal worst case DOM profit split of 60/40 (when I think they took 65/35 for a lot of phase 3, but it's a new time, so 60/40 full theatrical), Disney would have needed to make an additional $133.5M DOM...this seems like a more and more likely outcome if they'd have gone full theatrical, with BW coming in at only $200M total DOM with the PVOD, give or take $10M...

 

It ultimately is a not-optimal (there's my nice word) approach for this movie, especially as the nonexistent WW numbers (to include probably an eventual embarrassing China number), come in...

 

And now redo the Math for as low as $70M PVOD, and it gets even worse...

 

PS - Damn, do Apple and Amazon know how to negotiate!  They do way less than theaters for their cut:)...

Edited July 18, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[CJohn]

3 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

The bit is getting old tbh

I am free to share my opinion. The bit will change when I see different numbers than the current ones.

[CJohn]

From now until the end of August I only see 2 movies going above 20M OW: Suicide Squad (expecting around 35M right now) and Jungle Cruise (it should do 22-23M). Everything else is going under 10M OW with a couple of exceptions.

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

 

 

 

Cruella and BW ain't giving that perception, and Jungle Cruise won't either.

[Dragon]

Happy for Space Jam.

 

Glad F9 is holding up. Should hit 600 Mil soon. Possibly 700? Power of Family.

 

Ps. I think F9 could have hit 1b of there wasn't an Pandemic. 

Edited July 18, 2021 by Dragon

[Napoleon]

NATO predicts “Black Widow” could have climbed to $130 million in its first weekend.

 

“Black Widow” declined a massive 69% from inaugural ticket sales, collecting $26 million over the weekend. NATO referred to this dip as a “stunning second weekend collapse in theatrical revenues.”

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

From now until the end of August I only see 2 movies going above 20M OW: Suicide Squad (expecting around 35M right now) and Jungle Cruise (it should do 22-23M). Everything else is going under 10M OW with a couple of exceptions.

Nope. Old, Snake Eyes, Free Guy, Candyman, Paw Patrol

[Yandereprime101189]

I know Black Widow's not doing great and might be their lowest grossing since Incredible Hulk but Deadline and theaters are acting like a jilted lover clutching their pearls.

 

"How dare Disney! How dare they give audiences options."

 

And I get it. I get why, but it's still hilarious.

 

Marvel's still gonna rebound - what with their streaming shows as well as Spider-man, Doctor Strange and more around the corner.

 

Good for Space Jam, but I thought it would actually do mildly higher considering how popular the first was.

Edited July 18, 2021 by Yandereprime101189

[grey ghost]

33 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

NATO predicts “Black Widow” could have climbed to $130 million in its first weekend.

 

“Black Widow” declined a massive 69% from inaugural ticket sales, collecting $26 million over the weekend. NATO referred to this dip as a “stunning second weekend collapse in theatrical revenues.”

 

Where'd you get that 130m estimate?

[Cmasterclay]

Unless there is some day and date VOD release I don't know about, Candyman is getting closer to 10m OD than 10m OW even if it isn't good - and I've heard it is pretty solid. 

[Macleod]

19 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Marvel's still gonna rebound - what with their streaming shows as well as Spider-man, Doctor Strange and more around the corner.

 

All the money goes to SONY on SPIDER-MAN (except for perhaps a Producer salary for Kevin Feige).

 

I think MARVEL is going to reach an oversaturation point with their content pretty quickly within the next couple of years, where downward theatrical grosses will reflect that there's "always another show around the corner"/next week where people can "pick up the story" on Disney+.  We may already be seeing a tease of it with this weekend's results...

Edited July 18, 2021 by Macleod

[grey ghost]

5 minutes ago, Macleod said:

 

All the money goes to SONY on SPIDER-MAN (except for perhaps a Producer salary for Kevin Feige).

 

I think MARVEL is going to reach an oversaturation point with their content pretty quickly within the next couple of years, where downward theatrical grosses will reflect that there's "always another show around the corner"/next week where people can "pick up the story" on Disney+.  We may already be seeing a tease of it with this weekend's results...

 

BW had the biggest OW since 2019.

 

And she's not even in Marvel's top 5 franchises.

 

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

What’s this now? A 0-day streaming release from the MCU set the post-pandemic OW record and will get the post-pandemic DOM record as well, while making a pretty penny on DTC and dealing with the beginnings of a new wave?  

 

Yep — must be the early indications of marvel fatigue

Edited July 18, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[lorddemaxus]

There are three films in this weekend's top 10 that feature pigs. Has something like that happened before?

[Anthony]

Black Widow hasn't dropped this hard since Avengers: Endgame.

 

My apologies: saw this "joke" on the Box Office subreddit, and thought I'd share it with you all...

Edited July 18, 2021 by Anthony
New Sentence

[Napoleon]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

 

Where'd you get that 130m estimate?

It was in an earlier version of the article but they seem to have revised it.

[Yandereprime101189]

1 hour ago, Macleod said:

 

All the money goes to SONY on SPIDER-MAN (except for perhaps a Producer salary for Kevin Feige).

Perhaps but it's still an MCU making bank, It doesn't matter who makes bank, Marvel rebounds. Plus since it is Marvel Studios they still do get a cut of those profits.

 

Plus Disney itself gets all that millions and billions of Spider-man: No Way Home merch money to itself

Edited July 18, 2021 by Yandereprime101189

[charlie Jatinder]

6 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Saying F9 grossed more in a boxoffice forum is pointless? As I said, would saying F8 grossed more than Get Out be pointless, just because the latter was more of a profit? And I'd love it if you got a reliable estimation (not your own guess) of the profit margins of both movies to even claim that one was more profitable.

Widow ain't getting profitable in pure traditional ways. Yeah in books it may be with Disney paying Disney surcharge on early digital release.

[MrPink]

Snake Eyes will have you all ashamed of your words and deeds come next week

[charlie Jatinder]

2nd weekend drop doesn't matter. You have 15% of last weekend coming on Thursday previews, so even a great 50% drop is almost 59%. 

 

What to look is 2nd SAT and 2nd SUN against first one. Widow dropped 55%om 2nd SAT, 57% if you consider Ontario re-release.

 

Now that is also bad compared to the usual near 50% for MCU films we get and that's where Disney+ PA comes.