Weekend Thread (7/16-18) | Space Jam 31.6, Widow 26.3, Escape Room 8.8, F9 7.6, Boss Baby 4.7

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Not a big deal considering lower budget and 100m from PA.

 

Well, we guessed 100M from PA - it might only be 70M b/c with Disney releasing no PA numbers this weekend, it could be NO ONE really buys after the 1st weekend.  It's a product we know is incredibly front-loaded, but not how front loaded.  I wagged $100M and it seems right, but we'd have to get real Disney final numbers to know it's right...

 

As for budgets, F9 $200-$225M (Wiki) / Black Widow $200M budget (Wiki) - both just production budgets, b/c their P&A are probably both unfair to include b/c they both marketed pre and post Covid 19 intro...so, they are even there...

Edited July 18, 2021 by TwoMisfits

[grey ghost]

25 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Don't be a conformist dude, this is freaking USA, people best the best and obviously SJ2 can be bigger 

 

But you're moving the goalpost.

 

SJ2 was expected to make sub-25m.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

F9 is looking at around $ 650 mil finish. F9's OS-China could end up beating Black Widow's worldwide gross.

Probably $700-750M.

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, grey ghost said:

 

But you're moving the goalpost.

 

SJ2 was expected to make sub-25 20 m.

 

 

 

Fixed that for you - Deadline and Variety were both off...to Deadline, as I mentioned, the words were "hope" for $20M...

[CJohn]

Space Jam 2 will end up in the 80-90M range. Bad but acceptable I guess.

 

Disastrous drop fo Black Widow (the ceiling for movies during the pandemic clearly has been found between F9 and BW) and atrocious for Escape Room 2. Theaters are back, baby! Lmao, shit is in the trash. Let the past die. Kill it, if you have to.

[Valonqar]

4 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

I do agree poeple using mcu shows  as an excuse is a weird goal post .

But saying it's a natural  drop because it's  filler and about a dead character is a wierd one too.

 

You do realize this movie had hype and would have opened to 110m+ OW without PA.

Trailers for this were well received and this would have made a good 850m+ pre pandemic. 

 

Its dropping around 66% from last weekend. is not a natural drop for an mcu movie even in July.

 

Ant-man and CFA dropped around 60%, homecoming 61%

Let's wait for results for international but drops look meh too.

PA and reception and delta in  some parts are affecting this and it has less to do with her movie being about a dead character or being a sidequel .

 

It's weekdays are playing  closer to Ant-man 2 , but at least for the first instance the weekend seems to be dropping bigger . Let's see how that does next week .

 

Amtaw dropped 46% in weekend three.

 

 

 

I agree with these points but I still think that BW is a wrong movie to measure D+ shows impact on the boxoffice or lack thereof.  I know that trailer was well received, tracking was strong pre-pandemic, etc but it isn't an essential movie. If something essential to Phase 4 underwhelmed when it shouldn't than we could talk about potential D+ show saturation. 

 

@TigerPaw re: goalpost shifting. Guilty as charged cause I'm the "filler" "dead character" guy!  I still stand by it that BW is not the movie to gauge D+ impact on boxoffice. Too early and too disconnected to what they are trying to build for Phase 4. If NWH or MoM underperformed than it would make sense to look into potential oversaturation. But not right now. 

Edited July 18, 2021 by Valonqar

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Space Jam 2 will end up in the 80-90M range. Bad but acceptable I guess.

 

Disastrous drop fo Black Widow (the ceiling for movies during the pandemic clearly has been found between F9 and BW) and atrocious for Escape Room 2. Theaters are back, baby! Lmao, shit is in the trash. Let the past die. Kill it, if you have to.

The bit is getting old tbh

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

F9 is looking at around $ 650 mil finish. F9's OS-China could end up beating Black Widow's worldwide gross.

Yes, but F9 is theatrical exclusive (and Universal was smarter and choose better release dates).

 

In the end BW will probably be still more profitable, so i don't think it matter that much.

[grey ghost]

20 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Black Widow finishing below Fast 9 worldwide even if it releases In China 

 

 

Fast 8 made 1.2 billion worldwide.

 

The franchise is a monster globally

 

Black Widow is B-tier MCU and would probably make only 700-800 m pre-pandemic. 

[titanic2187]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

But you're moving the goalpost.

 

SJ2 was expected to make sub-25m.

 

 

Yes, so the overperformance could be bigger like 35m.

 

As long as there are people watching it on HBO max, there is money left on the tables.. I don't suppose all 100% of them to come to cinema if HBO isn't available, but HBO Max certainly isn't a plus point of its box office run. 

[ThomasNicole]

I hope TSS overperform just like SJ2, otherwise we're gonna get lots of boring weekends.

 

Old and Snake Eyes won't be a big deal.

Jungle Cruise same thing.

Free Guy same thing.

 

If TSS doesn't make $ 50M we have to wait until september.

[Liiviig 1998]

BW just dropped  60% OS.

 

No pa numbers  from disney this time around and those tend to be very frontloaded (100M+)

 

There is a possibility it misses 400m without china.

 

With a budget of 200m plus marketing budget which is definitely bigger due to revamping marketing after delays.

 

Profitability for BW is probably happening after home media sales.

 

Disney doesn't get 100% of the PA money.

 

 

 

 

Edited July 18, 2021 by Liiviig 1998

[Legion Again]

22 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Seems like there's a shot GvK could end up outgrossing it too (something I did not think would happen). Does make me rethink how well this would've done had it released around the same time as Tenet last year (I was predicting at least $600 mil at that time, which seems laughably high at this point).

600 sounds about right. Global conditions were a lot better for it then, although it would do like 100M less domestically.

[TigerPaw]

No updated D+ figures? 🤔🤐

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

In the end BW will probably be still more profitable, so i don't think it matter that much.

And? We're talking about the boxoffice gross, not profits. Fate made 1.2 billion but Get Out made more of a profit in the same year with a $255 mil gross. Doesn't change the fact that the former grossed higher. Diverting the conversation to profits is odd (espescially since we don't even have anything to a picture about the profits of both movies).

[Cmasterclay]

It doesn't help us establish benchmarks for the recovery when the movies being put out are kind of a shit sandwich in terms of box office gross even pre-pandemic. I thought Black Widow and FP were in line for big drops even before COVID relative to their franchises, and the rest of the summer is dire. Suicide Squad 2 was always, always in line for a drop of 50% IMO - just capturing none of the perfect storm of the original. Snake Eyes is a dumb, 2003-esque action movie that wouldn't have hit 30m in pre-pandemic times, and it looks like The Godfather compared to Free Guy, which I saw a trailer for during BW for the first time and legitimately looks like one of the worst major studio releases I've ever seen. We will have alot better sense in September and October when we start getting better releases, IMO.

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I hope TSS overperform just like SJ2, otherwise we're gonna get lots of boring weekends.

 

Old and Snake Eyes won't be a big deal.

Jungle Cruise same thing.

Free Guy same thing.

 

If TSS doesn't make $ 50M we have to wait until september.

Free Guy looked like a flop in waiting when it was supposed to come out in early July 2020 and doesn't look any less so now. Aside from Suicide Squad (which comes with already diminished expectations given its availability at home at the same time) August is looking to be the dump month it usually was pre-COVID.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

And? We're talking about the boxoffice gross, not profits. Fate made 1.2 billion but Get Out made more of a profit in the same year with a $255 mil gross. Doesn't change the fact that the former grossed higher. Diverting the conversation to profits is odd (espescially since we don't even have anything to a picture about the profits of both movies).

And what? I didn't diverting anything, i just said brag about F9 grossing more to me is pointless because BW will probably be more profitable.

 

We all know why BW will gross less than F9, it's the same of compare bananas and oranges. To me talk about profit seems way more logical than compare total gross of a theatrical exclusive release vs. a day-and-date release, i don't see the odd in anything that i said.

 

[Madhuvan]

Anyways Disney is doing so much harm their brands. New Bob is not new Bob Iger that's for sure. 

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

And what? I didn't diverting anything, i just said brag about F9 grossing more to me is pointless because BW will probably be more profitable.

 

We all know why BW will gross less than F9, it's the same of compare bananas and oranges. To me talk about profit seems way more logical than compare total gross of a theatrical exclusive release vs. a day-and-date release, i don't see the odd in anything that i said.

 

Saying F9 grossed more in a boxoffice forum is pointless? As I said, would saying F8 grossed more than Get Out be pointless, just because the latter was more of a profit? And I'd love it if you got a reliable estimation (not your own guess) of the profit margins of both movies to even claim that one was more profitable.