Weekend Thread (7/16-18) | Space Jam 31.6, Widow 26.3, Escape Room 8.8, F9 7.6, Boss Baby 4.7

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

The drop is 67.3% btw, not sure why they’ve rounded up to 68%. 

I think they are correct, I got 68%.

 

By the way, the top 10 of this weekend. 

 

1	N	Space Jam: A New Legacy	Warner Bros.	$31,650,000		3,965		$7,982	$31,650,000	1
2	(1)	Black Widow	Walt Disney	$25,612,000	-68%	4,275	+115	$5,991	$131,373,671	2
3	N	Escape Room: Tourname…	Sony Pict…	$8,800,000		2,815		$3,126	$8,800,000	1
4	(2)	F9: The Fast Saga	Universal	$7,620,000	-33%	3,368	-281	$2,262	$154,838,955	4
5	(3)	The Boss Baby: Family…	Universal	$4,720,000	-47%	3,449	-239	$1,369	$44,641,675	3
6	(4)	The Forever Purge	Universal	$4,160,000	-42%	2,735	-323	$1,521	$35,910,710	3
7	(5)	A Quiet Place: Part II	Paramount…	$2,300,000	-27%	1,995	-364	$1,153	$155,027,870	8
8	N	Roadrunner: A Film Ab…	Focus Fea…	$1,900,000		927		$2,050	$1,900,000	1
9	(6)	Cruella	Walt Disney	$1,112,000	-53%	1,175	-700	$946	$83,429,517	8
10	N	Pig	Neon	$945,000		552		$1,712	$945,000	1

 

[Liiviig 1998]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Same drop of F9 despite being on D+.

 

Seems fine to me, waiting for next weekend to see if it can pass 200M.

 

I think 2.7-3x the 26.25M is very doable for 203-211M finish.

 

Interested to see international drop considering delta variant is hurting it.

 

 

That's 2.5-2.6x legs from OW.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

 

I mean is it fair to say most people paid nothing to see BW? A family of four spend 30 bucks to see it instead of 40 bucks.

 

And I'm not sure the overseas numbers are cataclysmic as some are saying. For example the lack of Chinese box office has nothing to do with PA.

 

Lastly, it's unfair to expect BW to be the only movie to perform at pre-pandemic levels. No other movie is expected to hit pre-pandemic numbers. I concede there would be a 25% increase without PA but let's not get carried away. Even without a hybrid release other movies are not reaching pre-pandemic numbers.

And some people are really ignoring the fact that foreign countries are in the middle of a fourth wave.

 

Even countries that never have problems with the pandemic are now seeing exponential growth in cases because of Delta. I see somewhere that Tenet have more screens available outside US last year than BW now.

 

And the cases are also growing fast in US too, so next 8 weeks could be very volatile and push box office down a little, and even hurt legs. All of this need to be considered every weekend because there's no normalcy yet, far from it.

[wildphantom]

I’ve avoided anything trailer related to Old as I like to go in cold to a Shyamalan movie. Is the buzz not very good, as I haven’t heard anything?

I would have thought this would have a pretty nice OW. Certainly what I’m anticipating. 

[lorddemaxus]

42 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Even without PA, Disney was planning to add BW to Disney plus by October.

 

I think you guys are overestimating how much PA i going to impact the ancillary market.

 

BW is going to be free on Disney Plus in a couple months anyway.

There's still gap between when that and when these movies go to TVOD and physical (which are still sizable revenue streams). But yeah, I'm sure Disney is getting hundreds of millions in extra money due to PA (which is why they're stopping it with Jungle Cruise). 

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, Liiviig 1998 said:

That's 2.5-2.6x legs from OW.

Yes, which is normal for not so well received MCU movies.

[cannastop]

 

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, wildphantom said:

I’ve avoided anything trailer related to Old as I like to go in cold to a Shyamalan movie. Is the buzz not very good, as I haven’t heard anything?

I would have thought this would have a pretty nice OW. Certainly what I’m anticipating. 

Buzz are bad, lots of critics already saw the movie but they can't talk anything about until 3 hours before release. Marketing seems meh too, for a movie that have a halftime commercial few months ago.

 

I always give the benefit of doubt, but this probably means the movie isn't good.

[grey ghost]

I don't see much hype for Snake Eyes.

 

A mid teens OW wouldn't surprise me.

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

 

 

 

Somebody tweet Lebron, Jordan's Space Jam numbers adjusted for inflation.

[titanic2187]

In short, there are a lot of factors causing SJ2 to overperform and HBO max certainly not of them.

 

there are plenty of reasons (WoM, Natasha is dead blah blah blah) leading to BW to underperform but PA is definitely one of them

  

So nothing wrong to blame PA or HBO max 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I’ve avoided anything trailer related to Old as I like to go in cold to a Shyamalan movie. Is the buzz not very good, as I haven’t heard anything?

I would have thought this would have a pretty nice OW. Certainly what I’m anticipating. 

Buzz for the movie has been quiet in general. Whether it's because the movie is bad or they're trying to keep a lid on the twists as much as possible (although M. Night talked about the movie when he and Alex Wolff appeared at the Tribeca Film Festival last month and sorta kinda gave away the direction the story goes in), we'll find out soon enough.

[lorddemaxus]

Old probably won't have a budget any more than $5 mil (I mean its set entirely on a beach and seemed to have a quick production timeline). A $15 mil OW would be solid in my books.

[grey ghost]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

There's still gap between when that and when these movies go to TVOD and physical (which are still sizable revenue streams). But yeah, I'm sure Disney is getting hundreds of millions in extra money due to PA (which is why they're stopping it with Jungle Cruise). 

 

Disney announced they were stopping PA long before BW made 60m OW.

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

In short, there are a lot of factors causing SJ2 to overperform and HBO max certainly not of them.

 

there are plenty of reasons (WoM, Natasha is dead blah blah blah) leading to BW to underperform but PA is definitely one of them

  

So nothing wrong to blame PA or HBO max 

 

Why would we blame HBO Max when SJ2 is doing well?

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

Disney announced they were stopping PA long before BW made 60m OW.

Because it looked like the pandemic would be close to over after the summer and I doubt that $60 mil PA OW is changing their mind.

[Cmasterclay]

I've gotten the trailer for Old alot too and it had some early buzz, but the fact that it's apparently terrible will probably hold things down. M. Night's more successful movies of late have been the well-reviewed ones that got "I promise this one doesn't suck!" buzz out there early. Actually think he's become as review-dependent as any director in Hollywood.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

So what is the real number for BW? Is it 25.6 or 26.5? 

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Why would we blame HBO Max when SJ2 is doing well?

Don't be a conformist dude, this is freaking USA, people best the best and obviously SJ2 can be bigger 

[lorddemaxus]

I dont know if I've already said this here, but I feel like Universal is just dumping Old. This movie seems to lack proper international distribution too.