Weekend Thread (7/16-18) | Space Jam 31.6, Widow 26.3, Escape Room 8.8, F9 7.6, Boss Baby 4.7

[Cmasterclay]

I don't understand why people were possibly predicting 100m+ OW for Suicide Squad even before the pandemic. Birds of Prey was a flop and the first Suicide Squad was a perfect storm: the great trailers (now every trailer is like that), the hope it would be a good movie (even if it wasn't), Will Smith (still the third biggest draw in Hollywood IMO), and the novelty of seeing the Joker for the first time since Ledger died. It had SO much going for it. This one has none of that. I mean, I love Idris Elba and John Cena as much as the next guy, but what is the hook for this movie for anyone that isn't a total superhero movie completionist? I was predicting 60m OW before the pandemic, so mid-30s won't be that awful given the circumstances. Not to go full CJohn, but I wouldn't be stunned at below Space Jam at this rate.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

Saying F9 grossed more in a boxoffice forum is pointless? As I said, would saying F8 grossed more than Get Out be pointless, just because the latter was more of a profit? And I'd love it if you got a reliable estimation (not your own guess) of the profit margins of both movies to even claim that one was more profitable.

Giving the conditions of the pandemic and the different way the movies are released, yeah i don't see as a good comparisson. I'm not obliging anyone to agreed, i just give my opinion.

 

And i'm not claiming BW was more profitable, maybe you should read again, both movies didn't even finish their runs to begin with. I said BW will PROBABLY be more profitable in the end, it's an expectation, a guess, something that everyone here have since like you said, this is a box office forum, people having guesses and expectations are normal.

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Giving the conditions of the pandemic and the different way the movies are released, yeah i don't see as a good comparisson. I'm not obliging anyone to agreed, i just give my opinion.

 

And i'm not claiming BW was more profitable, maybe you should read again, both movies didn't even finish their runs to begin with. I said BW will PROBABLY be more profitable in the end, it's an expectation, a guess, something that everyone here have since like you said, this is a box office forum, people having guesses and expectations are normal.

Considering that both movies released in the boxoffice around the same time, I wouldn't say it's that different. And a guess doesn't make a comparison that isn't about profits "pointless".

 

I think the comparison has a point just because few people expected such a large difference between the grosses of both movies.

Edited July 18, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Buzz are bad, lots of critics already saw the movie but they can't talk anything about until 3 hours before release. Marketing seems meh too, for a movie that have a halftime commercial few months ago.

 

I always give the benefit of doubt, but this probably means the movie isn't good.

That’s not true, about the 3 hours before release. They allegedly canceled a test screening 3 hours before. Not the embargo. 

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

I dont know if I've already said this here, but I feel like Universal is just dumping Old. This movie seems to lack proper international distribution too.

It’s certainly getting a push here in the UK. 

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

25.6m but I don't get why Deadline has it at 26.25m , maybe they think Disney going to harsh for Sunday (-31%) or simply because they haven't update the article

It’s $26.25m 

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Space Jam 2 will end up in the 80-90M range. Bad but acceptable I guess.

 

Disastrous drop fo Black Widow (the ceiling for movies during the pandemic clearly has been found between F9 and BW) and atrocious for Escape Room 2. Theaters are back, baby! Lmao, shit is in the trash. Let the past die. Kill it, if you have to.

Are you having a bad year Cjohn?

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

I think they are correct, I got 68%.

 

By the way, the top 10 of this weekend. 

 

1	N	Space Jam: A New Legacy	Warner Bros.	$31,650,000		3,965		$7,982	$31,650,000	1
2	(1)	Black Widow	Walt Disney	$25,612,000	-68%	4,275	+115	$5,991	$131,373,671	2
3	N	Escape Room: Tourname…	Sony Pict…	$8,800,000		2,815		$3,126	$8,800,000	1
4	(2)	F9: The Fast Saga	Universal	$7,620,000	-33%	3,368	-281	$2,262	$154,838,955	4
5	(3)	The Boss Baby: Family…	Universal	$4,720,000	-47%	3,449	-239	$1,369	$44,641,675	3
6	(4)	The Forever Purge	Universal	$4,160,000	-42%	2,735	-323	$1,521	$35,910,710	3
7	(5)	A Quiet Place: Part II	Paramount…	$2,300,000	-27%	1,995	-364	$1,153	$155,027,870	8
8	N	Roadrunner: A Film Ab…	Focus Fea…	$1,900,000		927		$2,050	$1,900,000	1
9	(6)	Cruella	Walt Disney	$1,112,000	-53%	1,175	-700	$946	$83,429,517	8
10	N	Pig	Neon	$945,000		552		$1,712	$945,000	1

 

Nah they’ve corrected it now to 67%. 

[Blankments]

38 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Anyways Disney is doing so much harm their brands. New Bob is not new Bob Iger that's for sure. 

still think LUCA woulda made much more than CRUELLA I’m just saying but nope new Bob wants Pixar to stay streaming

[WittyUsername]

If BW doesn’t end up crossing $200 million domestically, that would make it the first MCU movie since 2015 that failed to do so. Anyway, F9 seems to be holding reasonably well. It has a big drop from its predecessor, but at least part of that is likely because the world hasn’t fully recovered from COVID yet.

 

 It’ll be interesting to see how the remainder of the year turns out, and if things will be back to normal by 2022. 

[Krissykins]

16 minutes ago, Blankments said:

still think LUCA woulda made much more than CRUELLA I’m just saying but nope new Bob wants Pixar to stay streaming

I would disagree. I loved Cruella in cinemas but thought Luca was so middling and instantly forgettable. 

[grey ghost]

I don't think Suicide Squad is hitting anywhere close to 100 m. But below Space Jam 2 is absurd as well.

 

I think around 50m is a safe bet.

[filmlover]

26 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

If BW doesn’t end up crossing $200 million domestically, that would make it the first MCU movie since 2015 that failed to do so. Anyway, F9 seems to be holding reasonably well. It has a big drop from its predecessor, but at least part of that is likely because the world hasn’t fully recovered from COVID yet.

 

 It’ll be interesting to see how the remainder of the year turns out, and if things will be back to normal by 2022. 

March (The Batman/Turning Red/Doctor Strange) is where I'm looking to as to what will be the real litmus test as to whether the market has fully recovered since we should be back to theatrical exclusive releases by that point.

[Blankments]

28 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I would disagree. I loved Cruella in cinemas but thought Luca was so middling and instantly forgettable. 

You literally post this whenever someone posts about Luca lol

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Considering that both movies released in the boxoffice around the same time, I wouldn't say it's that different. And a guess doesn't make a comparison that isn't about profits "pointless".

 

I think the comparison has a point just because few people expected such a large difference between the grosses of both movies.

It's pointless to me, like i already said twice.

 

You don't agreed, that's fine man.

[ThomasNicole]

14 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I don't think Suicide Squad is hitting anywhere close to 100 m. But below Space Jam 2 is absurd as well.

 

I think around 50m is a safe bet.

Yeah, i think being Rated R will hurt it but a comic book movie opening with 40M seems shocking.

 

Considering the reactions, the movie is probably great. They only need to focus on marketing and i think +50M is happening, there's still time, SP2 was supposed to bomb less than a month ago but they step up the marketing.

 

I found the presales meh so far, but this doesn't look like a movie that people will run to buy tickets very early. Even on OW i'm not expecting to be very frontloaded.

[Inceptionzq]

10 minutes ago, Blankments said:

You literally post this whenever someone posts about Luca lol

Tbf you’ve been repeating the same thing about Luca 

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah, i think being Rated R will hurt it but a comic book movie opening with 40M seems shocking.

 

Considering the reactions, the movie is probably great. They only need to focus on marketing and i think +50M is happening, there's still time, SP2 was supposed to bomb less than a month ago but they step up the marketing.

 

I found the presales meh so far, but this doesn't look like a movie that people will run to buy tickets very early. Even on OW i'm not expecting to be very frontloaded.

 

I mean the first one opened to an impressive 133m but this one has a ton of things going against it: the pandemic, free viewing on HBO Max, the R-rating, mixed reception from the first, lack of star power, etc.

 

Still should manage over 50m though.

[grim22]

 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

11 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

 

 

Right, they do...and in 2020, they just gave up that spot and didn't place a film in the TOP 15 Worldwide Box Office (Onward #16).  And that's not unexpected b/c Disney tends to give up the 1st 2 1/2 months of the year to the other studios...and then Covid hit.

 

But this year, in 2021, Black Widow may only get to #5 WW by the end of its run...and can Disney's other releases actually crack the top 5 (or can Black Widow stay there)?  We also think Spidey is taking a top spot, which would kick Black Widow automatically out of the top 5.  Will the Disney movies to be released get 500 M worldwide or more, or have they lost their position by fully failing to defend it, trying to go all in on streaming, which may or may not work long term in their favor...

 

PS - That said, Ron's Gone Wrong is another personal wildcard for winter - wonderful, wonderful trailer that's been getting great reactions at Regal's kid summer series - just give it the "pimp" release slot Encanto has, since it's a movie about a gift gone wrong, and who won't want to see that for the holidays?:)  But, Disney won't listen to me, so this is gonna have a dump release date in late October b/c, well, have you seen Disney's theatrical decisions this year:)...

[Blankments]

54 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Tbf you’ve been repeating the same thing about Luca 

Nothing else interesting to talk about rip

[Ms Lady Hawk]

14 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Right, they do...and in 2020, they just gave up that spot and didn't place a film in the TOP 15 Worldwide Box Office (Onward #16).  And that's not unexpected b/c Disney tends to give up the 1st 2 1/2 months of the year to the other studios...and then Covid hit.

 

But this year, in 2021, Black Widow may only get to #5 WW by the end of its run...and can Disney's other releases actually crack the top 5 (or can Black Widow stay there)?  We also think Spidey is taking a top spot, which would kick Black Widow automatically out of the top 5.  Will the Disney movies to be released get 500 M worldwide or more, or have they lost their position by fully failing to defend it, trying to go all in on streaming, which may or may not work long term in their favor...

 

PS - That said, Ron's Gone Wrong is another personal wildcard for winter - wonderful, wonderful trailer that's been getting great reactions at Regal's kid summer series - just give it the "pimp" release slot Encanto has, since it's a movie about a gift gone wrong, and who won't want to see that for the holidays?:)  But, Disney won't listen to me, so this is gonna have a dump release date in late October b/c, well, have you seen Disney's theatrical decisions this year:)...

I guess it can be said that many the studios made moves that we can second guess. Universal has been the most successful with its strategy. I will never fully forgive WB for releasing WW84 the way they did. They should have waited until June 2021. At least allow most of the world (Europe, some of Asia and most of the US) the choice to see it at the theater. However, WB is happy because it pretty much put HBOMAX on the map.
 

Disney also cares more about their streaming service than they do about cinemas. They don’t have to share profit. So if they can pocket 100 million just from streaming, that’s a win for them. Black Widow did what it was supposed to do. Could it have done more? Absolutely! But I don’t think Disney is disappointed. 

[Macleod]

 

Disney doesn't get all the PVOD revenue, either, so the $60 million last weekend was a 'white lie.'  !!!

And they didn't report it this weekend!

 

A correction to my analysis from last weekend: Disney doesn’t get 100% of their Disney+ Premier revenue many studio financial sources have informed me. On a PVOD release, they have to share ~15% of the revenues with platform providers such as Amazon Firestick, AppleTV+, etc. So that $60M global PVOD hooray last weekend is really around an estimated net $51M back to Disney. While it’s not as steep as the 40% they have to hand over to exhibition, once again, Disney is burning through an ancillary window faster and bound to walk away with less money in the end than they typically would on a regular theatrical release.

 

https://deadline.com/2021/07/black-widow-mcu-record-second-weekend-box-office-drop-disney-piracy-1234795325/

Edited July 18, 2021 by Macleod

[grey ghost]

22 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Right, they do...and in 2020, they just gave up that spot and didn't place a film in the TOP 15 Worldwide Box Office (Onward #16).  And that's not unexpected b/c Disney tends to give up the 1st 2 1/2 months of the year to the other studios...and then Covid hit.

 

But this year, in 2021, Black Widow may only get to #5 WW by the end of its run...and can Disney's other releases actually crack the top 5 (or can Black Widow stay there)?  We also think Spidey is taking a top spot, which would kick Black Widow automatically out of the top 5.  Will the Disney movies to be released get 500 M worldwide or more, or have they lost their position by fully failing to defend it, trying to go all in on streaming, which may or may not work long term in their favor...

 

PS - That said, Ron's Gone Wrong is another personal wildcard for winter - wonderful, wonderful trailer that's been getting great reactions at Regal's kid summer series - just give it the "pimp" release slot Encanto has, since it's a movie about a gift gone wrong, and who won't want to see that for the holidays?:)  But, Disney won't listen to me, so this is gonna have a dump release date in late October b/c, well, have you seen Disney's theatrical decisions this year:)...

 

Marvel hasn't released their top tier stuff yet.

 

Thor 4, Guardians 3, Black Panther 2, and Captain Marvel 2 all come out 2022 and 2023.