Weekend Thread: Free Guy 18.79M (34% drop!) | PAW Patrol 13M, Jungle Cruise 6.2M | Protégé 2.9M, Night House 2.87M, Legendary Flop Reminiscence 2M (Worst opening for a movie in 3K theaters!)

[Blankments]

The only streaming movie to have a level of cultural impact or people remembering talking about it this summer was LUCA; a nice consolation prize for the movie that would’ve likely been #1 of the summer with an exclusive theatrical run (there I said it)

[Chicago]

38 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The last Bond movie passed the 200M like a year after it opened or some shit like that thanks to an endless push. Why would this one do more during a pandemic?

 

I was thinking 65/175 a few days ago. A similar run to F9, just with a better 2nd weekend hold (that idea was kind throwed away after Venom moved tho).

It's James Bond. Everyone knows we get 1 good, 1 bad, therefore this has to be good so WOM may push it there

[titanic2187]

FG proves that we need some flexibility of theater exclusive window.  45 days probably isn't enough for FG but Reminiscene certainly don't need 45 days. 

 

One blanket window apply for all approach should be reconsidered. 

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, Chicago said:

That would be an ambitious multiplier 

Well it's a new character, if the movie is crowd pleasing like we're been hearing it should be less frontloaded than a typical Marvel movie, having no competition will do the trick for a 3.3x multiplier.

 

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, Free Eric said:

I was thinking for a while that No Time to Die was going to be the first film to hit 200M and topple Bad Boys 3 (something about that just seemed poetic considering this was the first movie to delay itself way back when), but I do kinda feel like Respect's awful hold makes me nervous about older moviegoers coming back. I know there's the argument that there hasn't been anything super appealing for that demographic, which is fair, but I think there's been studies and polls showing older demos are much more cautious about Delta and heading out in general IIRC, and even though I didn't care for the movie, there's nothing objectionable for its target audience that WOM is that bad. The specialty market also isn't doing all that great, which generally skews more adult (something like Green Knight skews towards the younger, A24 hipster crowd). I dunno, I just think movies skewing older are gonna have a rough time, which that spells bad news for something like Bond (and also Top Gun, Ghostbusters, Gucci, West Side Story, etc.).

 

I'm sure I might just be overly cautious about that though and obviously headlines should be more positive by October

It’s one of the bigger question marks of the pandemic era. 
I can certainly speak for the U.K. when I say if older audiences don’t come out for James Bond, then they ain’t ever coming out again!!!

 

It’s going to take an event movie like this to get them in again, and once they have a great time…older demo footfall might be off to the races once more.  Product is everything. 

[Cruel Summer]

miss de armas will bring the new bond movie to over 200m i fear

[Cap]

Woof. Reminiscence is a slog. Even watching it on HBO Max. Totally get why that’s bombing. 

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

It is truly unbelievable how bad all of the streamers are at giving their streaming films a lasting cultural footprint. Netflix in particular

I suspect their biggest cultural footprint are on associated with Netflix because they were the main distributor Domestic even if the movie is not from them, Cuties-The Platform.

 

Something like Icarus could-should have had some form of lasting cultural footprint, Beast of no Nation, Da 5 blood, maybe they did, meme is not something your 2 popes movie streaming audience

[CJohn]

3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

FG proves that we need some flexibility of theater exclusive window.  45 days probably isn't enough for FG but Reminiscene certainly don't need 45 days. 

 

One blanket window apply for all approach should be reconsidered. 

Studios are not forced to put movies in streaming or VOD after 45 days or whatever period the contract says so. Look at Old, Universal could have put it on VOD after 17 days. Yet, they haven't yet. If Disney wants to, they can keep Free Guy theaters exclusive even after 45 days.

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Studios are not forced to put movies in streaming or VOD after 45 days or whatever period the contract says so. Look at Old, Universal could have put it on VOD after 17 days. Yet, they haven't yet. If Disney wants to, they can keep Free Guy theaters exclusive even after 45 days.

Universal didn't say anything about Old tho.

 

Disney announced officially that FG will have 45 days window, so yeah they can't change this without facing backlash from people who are expecting the VOD.

[ThomasNicole]

Luca came back to #1 on Nielsen Charts, this probably have the best chart run i've seen for a streaming movie, a truly phenomenon.

 

Disney really lose an potential $ 150M DOM with this one, dumb move.

[Krissykins]

4 hours ago, Blankments said:

The only streaming movie to have a level of cultural impact or people remembering talking about it this summer was LUCA; a nice consolation prize for the movie that would’ve likely been #1 of the summer with an exclusive theatrical run (there I said it)

Really? I haven’t heard a single soul mention it lol, but I’m in the UK. 

[Jamiem]

Luca is massive with kids, just need to look at the amount of Luca themed Minecraft videos on YouTube

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, CJohn said:

Openings like the Reminiscence one are why the theatrical model is in serious danger. 3.200 theaters, stars, appealing concept and you get a 2M OW? Yikes.

The plot was murky and indecipherable in the advertising, Jackman has always been a hit-or-miss draw, the reviews were lousy, and its target audience of adults both reads reviews and has yet to return to theaters in notable numbers. A deadly combination of everything that led to a studio dump that would've easily pulled a sub-$5M opening even with a theatrical exclusive release.

 

8 hours ago, Free Eric said:

but I do kinda feel like Respect's awful hold makes me nervous about older moviegoers coming back.

This has been lost in all of the champagne-popping over Free Guy's great hold and to a lesser extent Paw Patrol's numbers tbh. Respect having a much worse drop than Free Guy when (unlike Free Guy) it's aimed at an audience that would give any movie strong legs and (like Free Guy) can only be seen in theaters at the moment sends a pretty ominous message to all the aspiring awards hopefuls coming out in the next few months as theater exclusives first. Especially when it also has an A CinemaScore and, unlike other underperfoming adult-targeted titles this summer such as In the Heights or Stillwater, it hasn't been hit with any controversy this past week. It's locked to finish with a smaller total than Get On Up at this point, something that definitely wouldn't have happened in normal times (the James Brown biopic fizzled because no one wanted to watch 2+ hours of the singer's exhausting personality even if Chadwick nailed the performance).

 

I'm sure movies like No Time to Die and Top Gun will be fine and post big numbers overall since they're part of action-oriented franchises even if they don't reach whatever their pre-COVID potentials were. But titles like The Last Duel, Gucci, West Side Story, etc. that'll have to rely on older crowds in hopes of making money? Godspeed.

Edited August 23, 2021 by filmlover

[Pinacolada]

9 hours ago, Firepower said:

Maybe Venom 2 will break 200M barrier.

Not with its new release date

[Legion Again]

47 minutes ago, filmlover said:

But titles like The Last Duel, Gucci, West Side Story, etc. that'll have to rely on older crowds in hopes of making money? Godspeed.

Did the first two have much financial potential covid notwithstanding though? We do occasionally see this sort of movie do good numbers but feels like the exception more than the rule.      
 

 

Edited August 23, 2021 by Lokis Legion

[Pinacolada]

6 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Did the first two have much financial potential covid notwithstanding though? We do occasionally see this sort of movie do good numbers but feels like the exception more than the rule.      
 

 

I think Gucci really had major potential in a pre-covid world. If it's good, it has that flashy vibe, and Lady Gaga has a huge fanbase, I think it could have been huge.

 

Even in a current-covid world, if it's good, I still think it can do well. I will say though I don't feel like that trailer had as much of an impact as I was expecting (Like when the first images of Lady Gaga and Adam Driver came out. That was huge. It even became meme-ified for a bit.)

 

The Last Duel I think also had potential pre-covid, IF it was good. I don't feel like its budget should be much above $75m.

Edited August 23, 2021 by Pinacolada

[lorddemaxus]

Feels like The Last Duel could be a hit (the trailer was fantastic) but it's in a pretty shit spot atm.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Lokis Legion said:

Did the first two have much financial potential covid notwithstanding though? We do occasionally see this sort of movie do good numbers but feels like the exception more than the rule.      
 

 

While neither was ever going to give Marvel a run for its money in any scenario, The Last Duel and Gucci (both from the same legendary director, funnily enough) will have a ton of buzz surrounding them leading up to their releases given the undeniable level of starpower behind each as well as their award-season-friendly release dates that would allow them to exist as counterprogramming options for a demographic the industry still neglects more often than not. How far they would go financially, though, would all come down to reviews/awards prospects in the end.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Last Duel feels like a movie that would have made money like 15 years ago. Impossible to imagine now. And especially harder because of how crowded Oct has become

 

Gucci, I still think will be solid financially. The opening will be strong, at least. Splashy trailer, big stars, true crime story. 

 

West Side I think will be fine, as well. A Spielberg remake of one of the most popular musicals ever? Christmas release? I think that has enough younger appeal, too, which helps

 

I'm a bit surprised about Respect. I saw it and the audience flipped for it. It plays all its cards accordingly and basically begs for attention. But I guess it didn't seem like an event? The reviews aren't great. Reminds me of Get On Up underwhelming in August (30m). Feels like Bohemian Rhapsody also inflated the genre. Judy only played in 1400 theaters but didn't explode. Rocketman did a respectable 90m with 3.75 budget but that was a much bigger summer release with Paramount's backing