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Eric Madrigal

Weekday Numbers (9/7-9) | Shang-Chi 6.62M Tuesday

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34 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

Wtf are you talking about?

This movie will have a big second weekend drop. The people who want to see it have seen it, the reaction has been good but it isn't enough to draw more people to go see it.

The rest of Disney's slate for the year will go hybrid release, bar maybe West Side Story

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5 minutes ago, Ryaner90 said:

This movie will have a big second weekend drop. The people who want to see it have seen it, the reaction has been good but it isn't enough to draw more people to go see it.

The rest of Disney's slate for the year will go hybrid release, bar maybe West Side Story

 

So Eternals you think? Ok..............................

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← Previous Chart Chart Index  
    Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per
Thr
Total
Gross
D
1 (1) Shang-Chi and the Legend … Walt Disney $6,619,036 -66%   4,300 $1,539 $101,291,884 5
2 (3) Candyman Universal $830,915 -62% -57% 3,569 $233 $41,851,735 12
3 (2) Free Guy 20th Century… $638,048 -73% -51% 3,885 $164 $95,049,262 26
4 (4) PAW Patrol: The Movie Paramount Pi… $306,165 -77% -54% 3,004 $102 $31,976,583 19
5 (5) Jungle Cruise Walt Disney $256,073 -77% -47% 3,075 $83 $107,052,075 40
6 (6) Don’t Breathe 2 Sony Pictures $200,549 -58% -39% 2,176 $92 $28,754,910 26
- (7) Respect United Artists $147,393 -63% -51% 2,107 $70 $22,436,968 26
- (10) The Night House Searchlight … $63,554 -51% -64% 1,020 $62 $6,459,259 19
- (9) The Protégé Lionsgate $62,375 -56% -74% 1,451 $43 $7,078,804 19
- (8) Black Widow Walt Disney $45,384 -71% -47% 750 $61 $182,735,850 61
- (11) Old Universal $35,995 -70% -54% 742 $49 $47,427,510 47
- (-) Flag Day United Artists $17,387 -53% +221% 196 $89 $313,519 19
- (-) A Rescue of Little Eggs Lionsgate $15,700 -71% -53% 302 $52 $759,035 12
- (-) Stillwater Focus Features $11,830 -70% -65% 488 $24 $14,340,985 40
- (-) F9: The Fast Saga Universal $6,170 -64% -53% 387 $16 $172,881,825 75
- (-) The Boss Baby: Family Bus… Universal $5,660 -79% -72% 445 $13 $57,024,155 68
- (-) Together Bleecker Street $5,481 -50% -62% 244 $22 $200,079 12
- (-) The Forever Purge Universal $895 -77% -52% 234 $4 $44,462,865 68
- (-) Tango Shalom Vision Films $807 -83%   4 $202 $26,157 5
- (-) Cruella Walt Disney $803 -79% -76% 55 $15 $86,083,314 103
                     
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Well the school year weekdays have definitely arrived... solid for Shang-Chi and sets it up well for a solid 2nd weekend. Personally still thinking its under 40m but regardless its nothing to panic about. 

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2 hours ago, Ryaner90 said:

This movie will have a big second weekend drop. The people who want to see it have seen it, the reaction has been good but it isn't enough to draw more people to go see it.

The rest of Disney's slate for the year will go hybrid release, bar maybe West Side Story

I'm assuming this is sarcasm?

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2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yikes for my projection. Donno what went wrong there. I have some idea but not entirely sure.

 

As for numbers, still excellent. I had $5.5M expectations and going 20% over them is great.

You're still the prophet to me. I give my blood, sweat and tears to see you through the promise land. One little miscalculation wont stop the reckoning. When the virgin dies and the blood moon rises you will sit on the throne

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10 hours ago, Ryaner90 said:

This movie will have a big second weekend drop. The people who want to see it have seen it, the reaction has been good but it isn't enough to draw more people to go see it.

The rest of Disney's slate for the year will go hybrid release, bar maybe West Side Story

 

me and the boys reading this:

 

giphy.gif

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thinking 4.2-4.3m for today ( thnks to projections in tracking thread)

 

4.2m

4m

9m

13m

8.5m

 

for a solid 30.5m weekend. -60% drop is expected and on better side of pandemic. :bouncy:

Edited by Madhuvan
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1 hour ago, Madhuvan said:

thinking 4.2-4.3m for today ( thnks to projections in tracking thread)

 

4.2m

4m

9m

13m

8.5m

 

for a solid 30.5m weekend. -60% drop is expected and on better side of pandemic. :bouncy:

Based on the trends from labor day openers many of them had 170-200 %increase from thursday  to frid....with that wom i wouldnt be suprised with a 200% bump for shang...

 

 

60% drop for shang would be in no way solid imo....

Edited by john2000
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56 minutes ago, john2000 said:

Based on the trends from labor day openers many of them had 170-200 %increase from thursday  to frid....with that wom i wouldnt be suprised with a 200% bump for shang...

would love to see it but again this is pandemic and a superhero movie. 

 

anyways , going by your increase of say 150%

 

10m

15m

9.75m

for a solid 34.75m. Shang-Chi is set up for good weekend even if we remain conservative.

 

For 200%

 

12m

18m

11.7m

for a excellent 41.7m weekend.

 

For 170%

 

10.8m

16.2m

10.5m

for a very good 37.5m weekend.

 

I am taking standard 50% increase for Sat and 35% drop for Sunday. But with big Fri increase Sat drop could be muted and Sunday drop a lil bit large.

 

so , ideally for a 200% Friday increase

 

12m

17.4m(+45%)

10.87m(-37.5%)

For a 40.27m weekend. 

 

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15 hours ago, Ryaner90 said:

This movie will have a big second weekend drop. The people who want to see it have seen it, the reaction has been good but it isn't enough to draw more people to go see it.

The rest of Disney's slate for the year will go hybrid release, bar maybe West Side Story

 The movie seems to have the best WOM of any major release this year (in terms of audience ratings, including the cinemascore, PostTrak exits, RT audience etc). Anecdotally, I don't think my friends have talked this much about a Marvel film since Endgame. WOM is excelllent, obviously fan loading will account for a steeper drop than what we would expect from a non IP driven film, but still, if WOM on this film "isnt enough" I simply don't know what kind of WOM would be

Aside from fan loading, the Sunday was inflated due to the holiday. I know we don't know whether Labor Day inflated or deflated the 3-day gross, but if the former, 60% would not be bad by CBM standards, even in normal times. What matters most will be the ultimate multiplier

Edited by Justin4125
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