4th of July Weekend | Tiktok propels Minions 2 to 108.5 3-Day OW | TGM 25.5, Elvis 19, JWD 15.6, Black Phone 12.3 | Independence Day Weekend Sale!

[filmlover]

Slapstick animation has always been a much easier sell than action-oriented animation. The early 2000s provided many notable bombs in that arena (Titan A.E., Atlantis, Treasure Planet). I doubt a Strange World underperformance following Lightyear would cause too many at Disney to lose sleep, especially when Elemental sounds like a return to more comedy-based material from either animation house.

[Jonwo]

9 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Maybe it’s because they kicked off right when my childhood ended at 14, but I really don’t like Illumination. They’re the very definition of “just good enough movies that execute the basic formula to print money perfectly.” I remember watching Secret Life of Pets and thinking “…that’s it? There was zero substance…” and I was very disappointed to find out Nintendo picked Illumination to make the Mario movie (everyone was shocked when the voice cast was revealed. I wasn’t. It was perfectly on brand for Illumination: pay big name stars that don’t match their characters at all but will inevitably draw lots of people into the seats).

 

I really don’t want Illumination to be the future of animation. But it looks like that’s where we’re heading. They may not produce masterpieces, but they know how to please children and print money. Even I have to admit that.

Disney Animation and Pixar aren't going to be shut down or changed dramatically especially the former given it is nearly 100 years old. 

 

I do give Meledandri credit that he realised early on that $150-250m animated films weren't sustainable and indeed a lot of the other studios have followed suit. I do think they should take a few risks once in a while.

 

 

 

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

Obviously an amazing number and the Minions just showed the world their giant yellow dick. I will say that 2pm start with kids out of school and on a holiday weekend is pretty much a normal day more than "previews." But I think 85m should be doable with great Sunday hold.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Slapstick animation has always been a much easier sell than action-oriented animation. The early 2000s provided many notable bombs in that arena (Titan A.E., Atlantis, Treasure Planet). I doubt a Strange World underperformance following Lightyear would cause too many at Disney to lose sleep, especially when Elemental sounds like a return to more comedy-based material from either animation house.

It does make me wonder how Incredibles and Big Hero 6 succeeded despite being more action oriented. 

 

I'm personally not too worried about Disney or Pixar. In the case of Disney, these sorts of downturns have happened twice in their history and they've rebounded each time.

[titanic2187]

Minion 2 success give me more confident about Thor 4. Thor 4 marketing suggest it would be an action comedy film, a different take as compared to DS2(horror), eternals and SC(drama), BW(action thriller). This is something people want now, funny action flick. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Obviously an amazing number and the Minions just showed the world their giant yellow dick. I will say that 2pm start with kids out of school and on a holiday weekend is pretty much a normal day more than "previews." But I think 85m should be doable with great Sunday hold.

That seems a little low to me. I'm going with a $90M 3-day opening in the worst case scenario. There is a realistic chance it reaches the century mark by Sunday's end.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

It does make me wonder how Incredibles and Big Hero 6 succeeded despite being more action oriented. 

 

I'm personally not too worried about Disney or Pixar. In the case of Disney, these sorts of downturns have happened twice in their history and they've rebounded each time.

To be fair, both of those movies really leaned into the comedy even from a marketing perspective. 

[thebig2000]

Holy crap. Those yellow creatures could break $100M 4-day. I’ve never rooted for the minions more.

[AdrianL]

Lol. I knew ever since Disney+ was announced that they would have a problem with people just waiting for films to show up there. I really don't see how them pivoting to streaming will turn out for the better in the long run but oh well! Theatrical is here to stay clearly, too much money on the table. 

[Jonwo]

I wonder if WBD might hold back on having Super Pets on HBO Max until say October so they enjoy a longer theatrical run. 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Phoebe Bridgers is behind this rousing success.

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

This number makes more sense if you treat it as a sequel to Minions instead of Despicable Me 3. Which it is, but....still. That just always seemed unlikely in terms of how audiences would view it. Guess we were wrong!

[John Marston]

16 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I mean I agree but at the end of the day, Chapek made the choice to accelerate with Soul, Luca and TR going to the plus. Iger isn’t totally innocent either but I place more of the blame on Chapek.

 

Regardless of my feelings of Disney, I do hope WDAS and Pixar see a rebound. 

 

Soul came out during the height of the pandemic. Of course it had to go to Plus. Maybe Luca and Turning Red could have been In theaters but I doubt they would have done big business 

[filmlover]

Just now, Jonwo said:

I wonder if WBD might hold back on having Super Pets on HBO Max until say October so they enjoy a longer theatrical run. 

 

It's going to be the last family movie until Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile in early October and the last animated movie until Strange World so it's set to have plenty of staying power even if it does $25-30M opening weekend.

[BruiseCruise]

$3.575 mil for Elvis

 

https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

Edited July 1, 2022 by BruiseCruise

[ThomasNicole]

Looking at tracking thread, seems this can easily get +30M true friday. 

 

100M 3-day is very doable, and if happens, we will get two +100M openings back to back. 

 

First time since pandemic, i think.

[Krissykins]

The last Minions film had a preview to 3 day multiplier of 18.9x. 
 

Previews began later at 5pm. But 18.9x is insane. Minions 2 only needs half of that multiplier to get to $100m for the 3 day. And with a Sunday holiday boost. 

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I wonder if WBD might hold back on having Super Pets on HBO Max until say October so they enjoy a longer theatrical run. 

 

WB so far has the most rigid Streaming release plan. When they say 45 days, it is really 45 days (or 46 days including preview) . Universal did extend for TBG and give longer theatre window for both JWD and Minion. Paramount give extra long window to TGM as requested TC but other films still enjoy 2-3 extra window days from the planned 45 days. Sony mostly follow pre-pandemic policy and Disney just try everything from 70 days to 30days to 48 days to straight-to-streaming.

[Liiviig 1998]

6 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Obviously an amazing number and the Minions just showed the world their giant yellow dick. I will say that 2pm start with kids out of school and on a holiday weekend is pretty much a normal day more than "previews." But I think 85m should be doable with great Sunday hold.

Based on tracking thread 30m+ true Friday is possible. This is having 9 infront it at worst for 3 day if that number  pans out. 100m 3 day can happen to.

 

It being a family movie ,FSS will be strong even with a 2pm . 

 

Sonic still managed 12x IM even with early access. Family audiences will never tend  rush out even with EA or early previews.

 

EA and early previews tend to affect blockbusters way more due to fan rush .

 

 

[Gavin Feng]

Again, 2022 is another 2015

 

DS = AOU

TGM = JW

Minions 2 = Minions

Avatar 2 = TFA