Weekend Thread (9/22-24) | Weekend Estimates - DWD 19.35, Woman King 11, Avatar 10.5, Barbarian 4.8, See How They Run & Pearl 1.9

[JWR]

The only consolation for WB is that the budget for DWD is so low that it shouldn't be hard to at least break even. 

[Eric the Ape]

Deadline’s saying Woman King will be #2. Is that legit or Deadline being Deadline?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Biggest OWs for non-IP live action since pandemic: (once again, no true stories, books.. House of Gucci, RRR, Old, Woman King, Elvis, etc)

 

1. Nope- 44.3m

2. The Lost City- 30.4m

3. Free Guy- 28.3m

4. Dog- 14.8m

5. The Northman- 12.2m

6. Beast- 11.5m

7. Barbarian- 10.5m

8. Moonfall- 9.8m

9. Tenet- 9.3m

10. Wrath of Man- 8.3m

 

FWIW, Jungle Cruise did 35m but I still debate the originality on that one

 

At least Don't Worry Darling is finishing 4th with its 18-20ish OW

[filmlover]

The Woman King looking at a potential sub-40% drop despite losing all its PLF screens. 👍

 

Barbarian is becoming a mini sensation.

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Eric from Progressive said:

Deadline’s saying Woman King will be #2. Is that legit or Deadline being Deadline?

Legit+expected

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Eric from Progressive said:

Deadline’s saying Woman King will be #2. Is that legit or Deadline being Deadline?

WK should leg out better from Fri, as Avatar will be OD heavy with no Thur previews, but whether that’s enough to surpass it by Sunday I don’t think is clear 

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, Eric from Progressive said:

Deadline’s saying Woman King will be #2. Is that legit or Deadline being Deadline?

It'll be close but Avatar probably wins in the end. Saturday will behave normally since people can see it in the morning/afternoon compared to Friday.

[Flopped]

11 minutes ago, JWR said:

The only consolation for WB is that the budget for DWD is so low that it shouldn't be hard to at least break even. 

I don't buy the reported budget. It also had major reshoots. And probably cost at least 25m to market. 

[CJohn]

The frontloadedness. 20M in risk. I think in the end it will squeak past them.

[Eric the Ape]

9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

FWIW, Jungle Cruise did 35m but I still debate the originality on that one

 

That one for sure doesn't count in the same way it doesn't count for Curse of the Black Pearl or Country Bears. It's still adapting a ride and taking material from the ride into the movie.

 

I do think Woman King also clarifies as an original here. The film says it's "Inspired by True Events", but it's still a fictional story with largely fictional characters apart from John Boyega as the king.

[TwoMisfits]

Deadline predicting $9.15M and 3rd place for Avatar re-release...

 

"There was another wide release this weekend in 20th Century Studios/Disney’s re-release of Avatar which is eyeing $9.15M at 1,860 theaters in third." 

[Legion Again]

TWK will be over 10. Avatar will be under 10. Not much doubt in either proposition I'd say -- YWK>Avatar necessarily even more clear.

[Flopped]

Impressive for Avatar. 

 

[Legion Again]

Maybe 40M darling finish or so. 45?

[Krissykins]

Hoping that The Woman King beats Avatar by the end of the weekend. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Legion By Night said:

Maybe 40M darling finish or so. 45?

Depends on how frontloaded it is this weekend and what the drop next weekend is. For now I'm thinking about $50M.

[Eric the Ape]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

36 minutes ago, Eric from Progressive said:

Deadline’s saying Woman King will be #2. Is that legit or Deadline being Deadline?

Yeah. Avatar will be 9M. 

[Eric the Ape]

Deadline Top 10 is finally up

 

Quote

Saturday AM weekend estimates:

1.) Don’t Worry Darling (NL/WB), 4,113 theaters, Fri $9.4M, 3-day $20M/Wk 1

2.) The Woman King (Sony) 3,765 theaters Fri $2.975M (-56%),  3-day $10M-$10.8M (-43%)/Total $35.2M-$36M/Wk 2

3.) Avatar (re) (20th/Dis) 1,860 theaters, Fri $3.3M, 3-day $9.15M, Total $769.7M/Wk 1 of re-issue

4.) Barbarian (20th/Dis) 2,890 theaters (+550), Fri $1.4M (-29%),  3-day $4.75M (-27%)/Total $28.3M/Wk 3

5.) Pearl (A24) 2,982 (+47) theaters, Fri $585,5K (-55%) 3-day $1.9M (-39%)/Total $7M/Wk 2

6.) Bullet Train (Sony) 1,907 (-695) theaters, Fri $500K (-31%),  3-day $1.8M (-29%)/, Total $99.2M/Wk 8

7.) See How They Run(Sea) 2,404 theaters, Fri $570K (-47%)/ 3-day $1.79M (-40%)/Total: $5.99M/ Wk 2

8.) DC League of Super-Pets (WB) 2,351 (-405) theaters, Fri $370K (-14%) 3-day $1.75M (-20%)/Total $89.95M Wk 9

9.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 2,025 (-579) theaters, Fri $460K (-27%), 3-day $1.6M (-28%), Total $711.6M/Wk 18

10.) Minions: Rise of Gru (Uni) 1,642 theaters (-328), Fri $210K (-22%),3-day $1.03M (-26%), Total: $365.5M/Wk 13

 

Super Pets and Black Phone are in a real neck-and-neck fight over who will get into the summer top 10 in the end, especially with Super Pets coming onto HBO Max on Monday. Very fascinating

[CaptNathanBrittles]

If AVATAR re-release has the same IM as the Special Edition it will hit $11m.