EarlyDeadlinePredictions Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Save us Avatar 2 you are our only hope! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 It's funny to read all the overeactions once a single "underwhelming" number appears. Same happened with DS2 2nd weekend number. Some even talked about the possibility of it finishing under Batman DOM. BPWF will close its run close to 500M, and that number is great. 6th highest MCU grosser! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M37 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, filmlover said: Black Panther should enjoy a decent drop next weekend with both the Thanksgiving/Black Friday holiday and the fact none of the weekend's openers look to have much traction to them. Even if it drops 60% this weekend, wouldn't rule out a $40M+ third weekend. Easily - with the Black Friday boost could be -30% or less. $70/$50 is on higher end, but plausible. That’s why there’s no need fret about a bigger drop this weekend, the week after will make it up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Couldn't find any good comps to BP2 for the same weekend. But for Thanksgiving weekend, here's the best I could do: Thor Ragnarok (weekend 4) -22.2% Doctor Strange (weekend 4) -22.7% Eternals (weekend 4) -28.5% Thor Dark World (weekend 4) -21.9% Catching Fire (weekend 2) -53.1% Hunger Games MJ1 (weekend 2) -53.3% HG MJ2 (weekend 2) -49.3% Frozen 2 (weekend 2) -34% Looks like all the 2nd weekends are similar (except Frozen 2 which is a kids movie). And all the weekend 4 MCU movies are similar. So where would a weekend 3 fall? Somewhere in between? ~-35%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valonqar Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 hours ago, jedijake said: Under $70 million second weekend for BP2 would be a very bad sign. Not happening. Behaves like Woman King on bigger scale so far. Ho-hum weekdays (time of the year, don't expect summer holds) but weekend recovery. Church crowd and all that. Over 70M second weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said: Weirdly, with so many openers, even if none big, it will still suffer the overall screen loss that it would if something big was opening. I mean, it went from 6-8 screens at my Cinemarks OW, to 4.5-5 screens this weekend, to only preselling 1-1.75 screens next Tuesday since both theaters are opening 6 new movies between Friday and Tuesday...that will hurt just in showing availability b/c it is a long movie... It seems to be keeping all of the big auditoriums for Thanksgiving weekend though (including all IMAX/PLF screens with the exception of Dolby which it's sharing with Strange World). That's probably all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Borobudur Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 MCU movies have become increasingly frontloaded. Outside of SC, every MCU movies drop >60% in their 2nd weekend, they mostly save some face in the latter week, but that was mostly because of the lack of competition. Similar to other recent MCU, I believe BP2 will have harsh drop this coming weekend too, only to stabilized over the Thanksgiving week and the drought post-Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liiviig 1998 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) Should be around 288-292m by end of second weekend(68-71m) Should be 370m+ after Thanksgiving weekend 440m by end of 9-11 Dec weekend. Fina1 480-495m domestic (2.65-2.7* legs. Think will just miss out on 500 but it's definitely still in play. If it happens to come on the lower side of BOP 63-65 second weekend . Final Dom AOU numbers. Edited November 17, 2022 by Liiviig 1998 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptNathanBrittles Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Thurs: 9 (+10%) Friday: 18 (+100%) 3.85x multiplier = $69m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOGODanca Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said: Thurs: 9 (+10%) Friday: 18 (+100%) 3.85x multiplier = $69m why would thursday go up? Ragnarok only went up cause friday was veterans day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOGODanca Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 Other MCU in same weekend performances:(FSS) Thor Rag: F: +137% S:+66% S: -33% DS F: +129.6% S: +64% S:-35.3% Eternals F: +120.2% S: +57.9% S: -32.1 % Thor DW F:+140.6% S:+57.8% S:-40.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed121 Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 27 minutes ago, GOGODanca said: why would thursday go up? Ragnarok only went up cause friday was veterans day Veterans Day was on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 25 minutes ago, GOGODanca said: Yup.... wife and I just finished Ms Marvel last week and only cause we had run out of other things we had been watching. There is just too much and none of it, especially this year, has been "great." We are making a point to go on a date night tomorrow and see BP but we haven't seen one in theaters since Shang-Chi 🤷♂️ and I don't really care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narniadis Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Reed121 said: Veterans Day was on Saturday But it was "observed" on the Friday. Made for a weird dichotomy in the box office. Not as good as it legitimately being on Friday, but schools and federal offices / banks were still closed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOGODanca Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Reed121 said: Veterans Day was on Saturday Holiday was observed Friday tho* My bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 What were BPs's official Wednesday numbers? (I could not find them) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verrows Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 (edited) 54 minutes ago, jedijake said: Other MCU in same weekend performances:(FSS) Thor Rag: F: +137% S:+66% S: -33% DS F: +129.6% S: +64% S:-35.3% Eternals F: +120.2% S: +57.9% S: -32.1 % Thor DW F:+140.6% S:+57.8% S:-40.8% Yeah there's no way the weekend clears $70M. Going off a $7.6M Thursday, which seems very reasonable at this point.... Friday $17.5M (+130%) Saturday $27.1M (+55%) Sunday $19M (-30%) Weekend $63.6M (-64.9%) And those are fairly generous Fri/Sat bumps and Sun drop. When all is said and done this will drop very close to Doctor Strange MoM despite the better word of mouth. I know the November weekdays thing but the weekdays were SO soft for BP WF that it won't even be able to translate to a "stronger" weekend. Again, the drop will end up being similar to MoM at the end of the day so what was the point of the soft weekdays caveat? EDIT: I'm recalling what @narniadissaid a few pages back about the strong weekends being relative to the preceding weekdays. That makes sense, rather than looking at it from a drop % standpoint. it still seems too bad though. I figured WF was ripe for a far better 2nd weekend drop than the more divisive MoM and L&T. The good news is the Thanksgiving 3rd weekend will be what really separates this and makes it a bigger box office hit than the similarly high opening Doctor Strange MoM. Edited November 17, 2022 by Verrows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jedijake Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 The second weekend always tells us the trajectory. We may be heading into a whole era of box office if a very strong WOM takes that trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoMisfits Posted November 17, 2022 Share Posted November 17, 2022 1 hour ago, jedijake said: The second weekend always tells us the trajectory. We may be heading into a whole era of box office if a very strong WOM takes that trajectory. OR it had a specific large audience and they were all very excited for this movie and saw it asap to avoid spoilers, inflating the opening weekend and lowering legs, ala Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
