Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

[exomassey]

With around 17.75, are we expecting a weekend between 60m-65m?

 

Depending how it performs over Thanksgiving, it’s more evidence to show that the MCU is becoming a more frontloaded franchise.

[GambitPool]

Really hope they start following the Incursions and Time Runs Out stories from the comics before Secret Wars. That really hyped up the main story. The multiverse hasn't felt that important aside from bringing in nostalgia characters. I think audiences would be more interested in these next few phases if they see actual battles ending in a universe being destroyed. It'll show them that there's an end-point to all this and there's real stakes with entire universes on the line. Like how they trained the audiences with Infinity Stones regularly appearing. 

 

And these incursions should be spread across the films and Disney+ shows. 

[Reed121]

Not even 18… 

So 64-65m weekend.  Under BP 1’s 3rd weekend. Maybe it has an extremely  good hold over Thanksgiving but I’m not sensing it. Word of mouth is good but not super good and Rewatchability isn’t strong.

[grey ghost]

WF will probably have the 3rd biggest domestic gross of this year and the biggest MCU domestic gross.

 

I wanted 500 million too but ya'll getting carried away with the doom and gloom.

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, Reed121 said:

Not even 18… 

So 64-65m weekend.  Under BP 1’s 3rd weekend. Maybe it has an extremely  good hold over Thanksgiving but I’m not sensing it. Word of mouth is good but not super good and Rewatchability isn’t strong.

$66M with +60%/-30%

Edited November 19, 2022 by efialtes76

[Verrows]

31 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

WF will probably have the 3rd biggest domestic gross of this year and the biggest MCU domestic gross.

 

I wanted 500 million too but ya'll getting carried away with the doom and gloom.

I don't get the sense it's doom and gloom. It's rewiring expectations in real time. Everyone can keep going "Nothing to see here!!" all they want but clearly all of us had a different outlook right after OW. Then it was "the weekdays will be soft but lead to stronger weekends". Now it's "the movie is going to make $400M+, that's a success any way you slice it!"

 

Lots of moving goalposts.

[Verrows]

3 hours ago, FilmFincher said:

I saw Black Panther: Wakanda Forever last night and have a lot of complicated feelings about it.

 

I appreciate that I could walk out of this film and have actual thoughts rather than “Yeah that was fun” and moving on with my life. Coogler was trying his hardest to make this so much more than your typical Marvel movie.

 

My audiences reaction to it really made me uncomfortable in a way I wasn’t expecting, especially the credits scene. 

There’s a way in which Marvel have been training their audience to watch their films. And I think Wakanda Forever often butts heads with that by having actual scenes with real human connection and confronting reasonably complicated ideas/morals while also trying to do the Marvel thing. 

It’s at war with itself and it doesn’t help that the film doesn’t have a clear central character for it’s first two acts which makes it feel scattershot and unfocused. 

 

It’s really forced me to take a look at what I want/need from these movies. 

I wanted the Ryan Coogler movie that was hiding in there.

 

My audience didn't want that and I'm fairly sure that's how we got to Russo’s Tiki-Tok Hercules.

If the audience wants more Thor: Love and Thunders then I'm out. It was nice watch WF, a Marvel movie that took itself and its characters seriously, as you sort of alluded to.

[Nikostar]

36 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

WF will probably have the 3rd biggest domestic gross of this year and the biggest MCU domestic gross.

 

I wanted 500 million too but ya'll getting carried away with the doom and gloom.

It’s BOT. We always panic for no reason at all.

[Cooper Legion]

500 has looked unlikely since preview night. It simply didn’t open big enough. The only people having to move their estimates down much are people where I don’t really understand why they had the high estimates to begin with.

[Verrows]

2 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

500 has looked unlikely since preview night. It simply didn’t open big enough. The only people having to move their estimates down much are people where I don’t really understand why they had the high estimates to begin with.

Yeah, probably. 

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, Sophie said:

I'm only interested in the race between Chosen and Menu this week. 

 

If Chosen gets 10M and Menu gets 8M, I wonder if Menu could make it up on the Mon-Thurs gross. 

 

Neither of my local theaters seem to have any showings for Chosen scheduled after Tuesday, so I'm guessing it's supposed to be a limited time release?

 

As a Fathom event, it's designed to be limited with only a limited amount of guaranteed days in theater, with the option of extending in some places if it's still going nuts...

 

So, it was put on this weekend to fill screens and bring in folks before the tons of Thanksgiving openers show up Tuesday - I do have a few locals playing it through the Thursday, but others which did just plan "the guaranteed days"...

[M37]

7 minutes ago, Verrows said:

I don't get the sense it's doom and gloom. It's rewiring expectations in real time. Everyone can keep going "Nothing to see here!!" all they want but clearly all of us had a different outlook right after OW. Then it was "the weekdays will be soft but lead to stronger weekends". Now it's "the movie is going to make $400M+, that's a success any way you slice it!"

 

Lots of moving goalposts.

Its less expectations are being rewritten, they were just miscalibrated to begin with. People were tossing out a $75M+ second weekend (and $500M+ total) as a likely outcome, when it was always a high end/low probability result, so the mid to high $60s (and the mid-$400s) reality looks “disappointing”.

 

And then we get 20 posts bemoaning what is (and likely will continue to be) a solid, just not spectacular, run. It’s incredibly frustrating to watch unfold (especially when myself and others have tried to warn in advance that expectations were too heavy on the wishcasting)

[THUNDER BIRD]

People need to realize that Black Panther is missing its lead star due to extremely unfortunate circumstances.

 

It's basically testimony to the power of Brand Marvel and the love for the mentioned lead star that this movie opened 180 million and will do 480-490 lifetime.

[jedijake]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

WF will probably have the 3rd biggest domestic gross of this year and the biggest MCU domestic gross.

 

I wanted 500 million too but ya'll getting carried away with the doom and gloom.

Just hoping it can somehow scratch out $463 million. I choose that number because it would be the same drop from BP1 as TLJ was from TFA. My range had been  between TLJ and AOU's drops. So, while it would be the lower end, it would still be in that range.

 

If it can be $65 million or very close, it has a chance to get $463 million. The obstacles for this came up front (no Chadwick, no T'Challa) while TLJ's obstacles came AFTER its release (bad fan WOM). As I said before, they balance each other out. BUT, they now have an opportunity to tie the BP storyline with X-men. Not getting into how here. That's for the spoiler thread.

[Liiviig 1998]

If you think this is gloom and doom posting. Wait for 2023. Guardians looks well set  but marvels and quantumania are the question marks

 

2022 MCU slate was strong and had alot going for it . 2023 not so much.

 

Sure box office is good for the current time but no one can deny there is a downturn in interest and hype for the MCU.

 

2023 and 2024 are going to be important for the mcu

 

And yeah ,they shouldn't fuck up the avenger movies.

 

[Factcheck]

18 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Just hoping it can somehow scratch out $463 million. I choose that number because it would be the same drop from BP1 as TLJ was from TFA. My range had been  between TLJ and AOU's drops. So, while it would be the lower end, it would still be in that range.

 

If it can be $65 million or very close, it has a chance to get $463 million. The obstacles for this came up front (no Chadwick, no T'Challa) while TLJ's obstacles came AFTER its release (bad fan WOM). As I said before, they balance each other out. BUT, they now have an opportunity to tie the BP storyline with X-men. Not getting into how here. That's for the spoiler thread.

TFA to TLJ drop can't be compared with BP1 to WF drop because ticket prices were almost the same during TFA and TLJ, but ticket prices have increased by 23% since BP1, so if WF does 463M, then the actual drop will be 46% (860-46% = 464).

[Gavin Feng]

If BP2 don't hold well, I can see only worse for Captain Marvel sequel.

[M37]

Speaking of setting expectations, I’m not sure why $65 is the default number thrown about? BPWF should be more Sat/Sun heavy than comps throughout its run, so +70/-30 is what I have penciled, basically $66-$69M off a $17.75M Fri, maybe an outside shot of cracking $70 with a really strong Sat. $65 is more the floor, not the midpoint, and a $28M+ Sat would be -50% or less from opening Sat, better than Thor or Strange

Edited November 19, 2022 by M37

[Valonqar]

7 hours ago, raegr said:

Well, RDJ and Chris Evans weren't build over one movie. By the time the Avengers came out, RDJ was in three movies already. Shang Chi and the newer characters need time to grow and develop just like the OG Avengers did in Phase 1. Plus, Scarlett Witch is massively popular, Yelena has a huge following online, and so does Shuri. 

 

Nah. It isn't just build up, it's the actors too. Marvel hit the jackpot with Downey/Evans. Not so much with the rest. They are popular online but people off line aren't attached to them like they were to the other 2. Not even close. It happens once in a generation. Absolutely no one from the current roaster has that kind of appeal. No one. Not even Hiolland whose biggest movie to date was propelled by 2 old Spiderman. 

 

Also, it isn't like Marvel is on a hunt for the next RDJ or Evans. They want other things from Phase 4 by the look of it. 

[jedijake]

25 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

TFA to TLJ drop can't be compared with BP1 to WF drop because ticket prices were almost the same during TFA and TLJ, but ticket prices have increased by 23% since BP1, so if WF does 463M, then the actual drop will be 46% (860-46% = 464).

Most people don't look at that. People will look at numbers vs numbers.

 

Besides, if the prices are so much higher, that's a massive deterrent to go to the theaters. So while some say higher ticket prices should yield better numbers, you have to look at personal impact. There are more people struggling financially, so going to the theater is much less of an option than it was in 2018.

 

One can look at the demographics and, possibly, even financial status of those who would likely see TGM vs those who would most likely see BP2. I'd bet there are very different demographics and socio-economic situations I'd say. It would be interesting to do the research on that.

Edited November 19, 2022 by jedijake