GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[BadOlCatSylvester]

33 minutes ago, Last Man Standing said:

Twitter is not against Little Mermaid what is bro talking about?😭😭

If anything, they're the biggest supporters of the movie right now, and a lot of them are doing it to spite the people who made a big deal about Halle Bailey's casting.

[RamblinRed]

1 hour ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

People aren't really mentioning the 65/35 gender gap but i think theres a clue here.

 

Some of the MCU success was that compared to other iterations of superhero franchises it managed universal pull.

 

65/35 is overt "boy movie" territory perceptually.

 

That might be a Gunn thing in that he has excellent reception but the appeal here may be among a *slighty* more niche market or it may be that the wider culture aroumd the MCU (including perhaps that it simply is less cool) is convalescing.

 

Either way, that 65/35 is an eye openee IMO. 

 

OS seems like the potential soother here. Seems like better performances there may salve the DOM narrative.

 

Agree that 700m ww is the benchmark here for okay v disappointment. 750 would be good/solid and 800m a big success at this point. The billion references (mostly not on here but on youtube and the like) were always silly and never were going to help this film.

That's an interesting split. It makes me wonder if the animal experimentation scenes are having a negative impact on female interest in the movie.

 

Glad to see this picked up in the last week though and that audience reaction has been strong so far.

 

[Hatebox]

8 hours ago, John Marston said:

Number for Guardians confirms 100% there is a bit of superhero fatigue going on 

stop threatening me with a good time

[Firepower]

26 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

If anything, they're the biggest supporters of the movie right now, and a lot of them are doing it to spite the people who made a big deal about Halle Bailey's casting.

So typical filmtwitter then, nothing new.

[Firepower]

8 hours ago, GambitPool said:

If superhero fatigue has truly begun, what does Gunn's DC Universe look like in 2 years - box office wise? A case of too late to the party? 

100%

[Krissykins]

The usual people are against the Little Mermaid on twitter, the other people are defending it. I’m pretty sure the trailers were flooded with dislikes too? 

Hopefully the film will overcome any bigotry over the casting. 

[filmnerdjamie]

8 hours ago, GambitPool said:

If superhero fatigue has truly begun, what does Gunn's DC Universe look like in 2 years - box office wise? A case of too late to the party? 

 

A fair point.

 

Altogether possible. As long as the introductory films (a la Superman: Legacy, The Authority, Brave & the Bold) are good - and not "good for what it is" but actual good films like how Iron Man is good, they will be fine. 

[GambitPool]

14 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

A fair point.

 

Altogether possible. As long as the introductory films (a la Superman: Legacy, The Authority, Brave & the Bold) are good - and not "good for what it is" but actual good films like how Iron Man is good, they will be fine. 

I don't even know if good films will be enough with DC's history and 2 more years into the fatigue. 

 

They have to feel like event films and I'm not sure if Brave & the Bold can do it with The Batman series running at the same time. 

 

Way I see it is WB needs to test the waters with the Flash's summer release date. If it gets cannibalized with all tge other blockbusters, they should be thinking about releasing Superman Legacy with less competition. 

Edited May 6, 2023 by GambitPool

[vafrow]

50 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

That's an interesting split. It makes me wonder if the animal experimentation scenes are having a negative impact on female interest in the movie.

 

Glad to see this picked up in the last week though and that audience reaction has been strong so far.

 

I don't think that would have too much impact on opening audiences. People would need to be following the dialogue on this film in detail to make that a part of their decision making.

 

My theory is that the other Marvel films had a much more prominent female character central in the marketing. Wanda was a big part of MoM. Love and Thunder brought focus on Natalie Portman. Wakanda Forever obviously was about Shuri and the other female characters. Quantumania had the Wasp in the title, and marketing did bring focus to Cassie Lang and Michelle Pfeiffer.

 

Now, handling of those characters weren't always the greatest, and, that could have pushed some fans away.

 

The Marvels becomes a good test. If the erosion of the MCU fanbase has been in the female demographic, then, that film has a lot of work to do to get them back.

[GambitPool]

Well if they weren't already, Disney/Feige are backing up mountain loads of cash to RDJ and Evan's houses for Secret Wars. 

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, what you're saying is...you anecdotally also display the gender and family gap of GOTG 3:)...

 

The gender and family gaps, if they stay so wide this weekend, would explain a $115M OW vs a $140M OW...

 

Right now, GOTG is at 65-35 and 13% families - GOTG 2 was 57-44 with 19% families and 9% teens (teens were not broken out for 3, so I'll ignore them).

 

GOTG 2 female box office OW ($146.5M * .44) = $64.5M

GOTG 3 female box office (based on 35% and $115M OW) - $40.25

 

Difference of $24.25M or what we're looking at - or about $140M if they had just brought back #2's full female audience.

 

To get to GOTG 2 exact open...add the family difference, and you're there...

 

 

 

Good breakdown! 

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, what you're saying is...you anecdotally also display the gender and family gap of GOTG 3:)...

 

The gender and family gaps, if they stay so wide this weekend, would explain a $115M OW vs a $140M OW...

 

Right now, GOTG is at 65-35 and 13% families - GOTG 2 was 57-44 with 19% families and 9% teens (teens were not broken out for 3, so I'll ignore them).

 

GOTG 2 female box office OW ($146.5M * .44) = $64.5M

GOTG 3 female box office (based on 35% and $115M OW) - $40.25

 

Difference of $24.25M or what we're looking at - or about $140M if they had just brought back #2's full female audience.

 

To get to GOTG 2 exact open...add the family difference, and you're there...

 

 

 

I nearly did the first bit of this but you've done it in much more depth and better than I could.

 

Excellent analysis and absolutely highlights that the trends we were pilloried for in the GOTG3 thread regarding the seeming tone of the movie and its potential impact may indeed have played a part.

 

The young male and enthusiastic audience who are seeing this film are loving it. And that's great and will have likely some impact on legs. But thats not the whole picture unless families and women are convinced to see it in the numbers they previously were.

Edited May 6, 2023 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[Daxtreme]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

While this OW is not catastrophe-level for Guardians (aka under 100M), its very disappointing in the context of Vol 2's numbers and Marvels overall trajectory. It shows imo that even a quality product isnt safe from the "suphero fatigue" so to speak, like others have mentioned. A ton of people who flocked to literally every Marvel movie pre-Endgame are seemingly lost for the foreseeable future, if not forever.

 

And honestly, its Marvels and Disneys faults. They can only blame themselves. Phase 4 - despite something like No Way Home - overall was a big, steep decline in quality compared to everything that came before and worst of all, it didnt feel connected. It didnt have an easy-to-understand path the movies followed and Ant-Man 3 clearly failed to estrablish that new path for Phase 5, aka the new villain. Its a huge mess.

 

I too think The Marvels is pretty much doomed this November. Who exactly is hyped for it? Captain Marvels big success is, in my opinion, much much more Endgame-related than Captain Marvel-related. Ms. Marvel is a show that very few people watched or cared about. What is the hook here? I dont see it and thats why i think it will fall short of even a 80M OW, i see it more in the 60Mish range now.

 

Heres hoping that GOTG develops great legs because seemingly, audiences really like it and good movies should always be rewarded with success in an ideal world. But the MCU is in a really dire state now.

 

Excellent post. I agree. We're seeing the effects of their bad decisions now with GOTG3, where even a movie with great reception gets hits pretty hard. Took a while but the debt was due one day.

 

I don't think it's only due to quality. I think they had it coming no matter what.

 

I knew this would happen the second they started announcing Disney+ shows back then. It dilutes the brand like crazy, removes the "MCU = hype, watch in theater" subconscious association people had in their minds, and unless all of them are excellent and near-flawless (which they weren't), people will lose interest simply due to the amount of content there is to catch up with. It was already a (smaller) problem leading up to Endgame but people kept up with it to get the ending that was in sight, and after it just became way too much. 

 

MCU movies are simply no longer must watch right now. Will they ever be once again? Who knows. But some people have been burned off and they will probably never come back. 

 

However, a movie like this will certainly help to get things back on track since it seems to be good. Marvel need to do 2 things:

 

1. Make movies that people like again
2. Slow down on the output, especially TV shows. Perhaps stop releasing TV shows altogether would be my advice TBH (except those which are done filming). It HURTS the brand like you have no idea. New MCU releases stopped being events the minute the TV shows started being released, and it's their event status that made them into what they were during phase 3. Releasing one or two shows would have been fine but they went wayyyyyyyyyy overboard. I think WandaVision actually helped build hype back for Marvel when it was released, but that's due to the barren release slate caused by the Pandemic, so that was excellent timing due to dumb luck. But they over-played their hand by a gargantuan margin.

 

I said earlier that people associated MCU with "must-watch, in theaters", due to the long theatrical window. As long as they kept it at a reasonable output rate, it would have stayed relevant. It's a subconscious association and it's a powerful one, akin to the "Holidays = Star Wars" period between 2015 and 2019 that Lucasfilm had going (which they NEVER should have dropped, even skipping a year is better than dropping it altogether). Avatar 2 was really smart to keep that Christmas release date association with the original. Nostalgic for those who went in 2009. People want stability in their entertainment activities. They're basically only looking for an excuse to go out, give them one! But one that's stable, expected, reliable, and of familiar quality. 

 

Basically, Marvel should have released only around half of what they have released since Endgame. Scrap all but 1 or 2 of the TV shows. That would also have indirectly positively affected the quality of the remaining releases as the executives overseeing the whole thing wouldn't have been so in over their heads as we all know they were.

 

Well that became a massive wall of text out of nowhere. Essentially I wanted to say that I agree with you lmao

[Valonqar]

34 minutes ago, vafrow said:

I don't think that would have too much impact on opening audiences. People would need to be following the dialogue on this film in detail to make that a part of their decision making.

 

My theory is that the other Marvel films had a much more prominent female character central in the marketing. Wanda was a big part of MoM. Love and Thunder brought focus on Natalie Portman. Wakanda Forever obviously was about Shuri and the other female characters. Quantumania had the Wasp in the title, and marketing did bring focus to Cassie Lang and Michelle Pfeiffer.

 

Now, handling of those characters weren't always the greatest, and, that could have pushed some fans away.

 

The Marvels becomes a good test. If the erosion of the MCU fanbase has been in the female demographic, then, that film has a lot of work to do to get them back.

 

So did Eternals and it had the worst male/female ratio of any Marvel movie. And that movie went really big on female representation - Asian lead, Jolie, teenage girl, deaf black woman, Latina. 

 

Marvel has always skewed male and will always skew male. Female characters don't mean automatic interest for majority of women. You can have a very male movie with mostly female characters which is the main reason why superhero movies continue to skew male. Same goes for Star Wars. Rey didn't improve female attendance. 

Edited May 6, 2023 by Valonqar

[Alexander]

9 hours ago, GambitPool said:

If superhero fatigue has truly begun, what does Gunn's DC Universe look like in 2 years - box office wise? A case of too late to the party? 

Yeah, absolutely. I've been saying for months that Gunn and Zaslav act like the whole world is waiting (and maybe they have to treat it this way) but honestly I think The Brave and The Bold will be their only box office monster-hit.

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

24 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

 

I nearly did the first bit of this but you've done it in much more depth and better than I could.

 

Excellent analysis and absolutely highlights that the trends we were pilloried for in the GOTG3 thread regarding the seeming tone of the movie and its potential impact may indeed have played a part.

 

The young male and enthusiastic audience who are seeing this film are loving it. And that's great and will have likely some impact on legs. But thats not the whole picture unless families and women are convinced to see it in the numbers they previously were.

The PostTrak scores for women (still 35% of the audience, not negligible) are every bit as glowing as they are for men.

[babz06]

8 hours ago, I Am Eric said:

I think it will be like November 2016 where you had Doctor Strange, Fantastic Beasts, and Moana basically grossing in the same low-200s range. Then it'll be a fight between Trolls 2 and Wish on which film will gross the same as Trolls and which one will gross as Arrival. Should be a very exciting and fun month regardless what happens.

I’m starting to feel the same way. Those films don’t really have huge advantage over the others and share demos. IMAX did account for a large chunk of Dune sales so that’s the one I think should move to October to get some room from marvels. But I don’t think The Marvels is looking like a big threat right now. If anything Wish could be the sleeper pick of November.

Edited May 6, 2023 by babz06

[TwoMisfits]

41 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

So did Eternals and it had the worst male/female ratio of any Marvel movie. And that movie went really big on female representation - Asian lead, Jolie, teenage girl, deaf black woman, Latina. 

 

Marvel has always skewed male and will always skew male. Female characters don't mean automatic interest for majority of women. You can have a very male movie with mostly female characters which is the main reason why superhero movies continue to skew male. Same goes for Star Wars. Rey didn't improve female attendance. 

 

Marvel has actually skewed the least male of the 3 big supers makers, and Disney's own data says their MCU fanbase splits 53-47 male/female (although their movie releases tend to be a bit more split, like GOTG 2 57/44 is more representative)...

 

I agree you don't need big female leads to pull in female fans...BUT edgelordery tends to offput female fans.  Again, I liked Peacemaker, but I was strongly put off my some of the more extreme scenes.  In fact, that's partly why I'm passing, too.  My kids are the ones who cry at animal deaths, so animal torture plus possible death when I know Gunn goes all in on his vision vs going for a reference and not a "no, I'm gonna show you all of this in all its awfulness" is enough to let me sit for D+, and I did pay for GOTG 1/2 1st weekend tickets (although I also didn't have D+ then)...

[babz06]

9 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

I see a sub-100M opening for it and DUNE II holding relatively well on its second weekend.

It’s not doing sub 100. The marvel fandom is still potent on OW. I think it does around 130m -140m ow, the second weekend drop is what could be nasty.