GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3 WEEKEND THREAD

[Heretic]

I’ve barely kept up with Marvel over the last few years and frankly lost quite a lot of interest, but my god, Guardians 3 was INCREDIBLE. Not ashamed to say I cried like 5 times. People I went with absolutely loved it too, all think it is top 3 marvel. Really hope it can have a long run as it deserves it. 

[Mr Roark]

1 hour ago, thajdikt said:

So if OS estimates goes up then we potentially are looking at 290M+ global opening. That´s fantastic. Especially giving the downwards trend MCU has seen in OS markets. 

True but without China still falls $45M shorter than Love and Thunder. Overall fine anyway and most importantly WOM is good.

[stripe]

What an incredibly satisfying experiencie!

Second weekend should be really solid, over 50M for sure. Wouldn't it be great if it can have a better 2nd weekend than DSMoM 61M?

[Bordlove]

6 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

True but without China still falls $45M shorter than Love and Thunder. Overall fine anyway and most importantly WOM is good.

This is released in China and doing great. 

[Mr Roark]

11 minutes ago, Bordlove said:

This is released in China and doing great. 

Lol I know I compared its performance with Thor 4 and that one it didn’t have China.

[stripe]

4 hours ago, CloneWars said:

A final gross between Guardians 1 & 2 would be solid. And despite all the doomsayers on this board, MCU is still doing really good. Phase 3 just spoiled everyone and set unrealistic high BO expectations. 

 

A few days ago I calculated the average DOM gross of each MCU phase.

 

Phase 1: 291M average

IM 318

TIH 135

IM2 312

T 177

CA 181

TA 623

 

Phase 2: 307M average

IM3 409

T2 203

GOTG 333

CA2 260

AOU 459

AM 180

 

Phase 3: 449M average

CW 408

DS 230

GOTG2 390

SMH 334

TR 311

BP 700

AIW 679

AMW 216

CM 427

AEG 858

FFH 390

 

Phase 4: 369M average

BW 183 (*Covid)

SC 225 (*Covid)

Et 165 (*Covid)

NWH 805

DS2 411

L&T 343

BPWF 454

 

So DOM Phase 4 was under Phase 3, but still over phase 1&2 despite Covid. I would say that a 369M average gross with 7 films is more than great.

[Alexander]

Personally I think 2020 gave a good opportunity to stop counting China in WW numbers. And the same could be said about Russia now.

[Firepower]

5 hours ago, CloneWars said:

A final gross between Guardians 1 & 2 would be solid. And despite all the doomsayers on this board, MCU is still doing really good. Phase 3 just spoiled everyone and set unrealistic high BO expectations. 

This one looks like an outlier, especially because of very strong reception. The Marvels and Cap 4 could go elsewhere. And I don't think calling Ant-Man 3 doing less than 500 mln a failure is "unrealistic high expectations", it's just a really bad result.

[stripe]

4 minutes ago, Firepower said:

This one looks like an outlier, especially because of very strong reception. The Marvels and Cap 4 could go elsewhere. And I don't think calling Ant-Man 3 doing less than 500 mln a failure is "unrealistic high expectations", it's just a really bad result.

 

The outlier is AM3, first MCU movie in a while to really have a bad result.

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

The outlier is AM3, first MCU movie in a while to really have a bad result.

Eternals was not so long ago.   
 

And DS2 and L&T had really bad reception and legs, they were carried to decent totals by inertia but still dealt a lot of damage. So that makes 4/6 of the most recent movies heading into gotg a drag rather than a boost.  
 

Now that gotg is good, only 4 of the last 7 are bad, or 3 of the last 5. People will probably view marvels, cap, bolts blade etc as open questions which could easily go either way, and that will drag on their openings— though if any individual ones do turn out good, it will show up with better legs. And if they all turn out good, probably we will mostly have goodwil restored… except for Kang/multiverse stuff, which is the central pillar of the saga 😬

Edited May 8, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

I don't think Eternals was the one that did the most damage.

 

Obviously it wasn't super popular but I think it's obvious aspect of difference and, in relative terms, experimentation - mean that I don't think the hit on the MCU perceptually was that strong. 

 

Vibes were more "Ah, tried something different. Didn't work." than "Well I won't be watching any more MCU."

 

I think in hindsight there were two real big hits to the brand that override the others. Sure MOM having mixed to negative reception didn't help. Sure, Quantumania getting Rotten reviews didn't help.

 

But I think the two big ones are:

 

1. Love and Thunder. Because it wasn't just a bad film. It was a bad film that festers: the kind that gets worse the longer time goes on and the more you think about it. The smugness of TW and by extension the whole film projects the kind of air of superiority and better-than-the-material dynamic that JG (for all he sometimes has similar issues to TW) never has due to the obvious love of the material. The MCU - Feige- the franchise previously almost defined by it's good control of project - actually allowed a director's self-insert joke cartoon character to eat up screen time and have agency that the other actual main characters needed to have. On their watch.

 

2. The Disney Plus shows' prevalence. I think at this point it's not really the quality of any of them. Most people like some and dislike others and I don't want to get into that as it's a matter of taste. But what is common to the discussions is that as with Pixar the very presence and prevalence of MCU content on Disney Plus is a signifier to the audience that the MCU has lower stakes. I think discussions of quality are actually a distraction here to the bigger issue of just the creation of household/family dynamics: "We Watch the MCU On TV"  

[JohnnyGossamer]

6 minutes ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

I don't think Eternals was the one that did the most damage.

 

Obviously it wasn't super popular but I think it's obvious aspect of difference and, in relative terms, experimentation - mean that I don't think the hit on the MCU perceptually was that strong. 

 

Vibes were more "Ah, tried something different. Didn't work." than "Well I won't be watching any more MCU."

 

I think in hindsight there were two real big hits to the brand that override the others. Sure MOM having mixed to negative reception didn't help. Sure, Quantumania getting Rotten reviews didn't help.

 

But I think the two big ones are:

 

1. Love and Thunder. Because it wasn't just a bad film. It was a bad film that festers: the kind that gets worse the longer time goes on and the more you think about it. The smugness of TW and by extension the whole film projects the kind of air of superiority and better-than-the-material dynamic that JG (for all he sometimes has similar issues to TW) never has due to the obvious love of the material. The MCU - Feige- the franchise previously almost defined by it's good control of project - actually allowed a director's self-insert joke cartoon character to eat up screen time and have agency that the other actual main characters needed to have. On their watch.

 

2. The Disney Plus shows' prevalence. I think at this point it's not really the quality of any of them. Most people like some and dislike others and I don't want to get into that as it's a matter of taste. But what is common to the discussions is that as with Pixar the very presence and prevalence of MCU content on Disney Plus is a signifier to the audience that the MCU has lower stakes. I think discussions of quality are actually a distraction here to the bigger issue of just the creation of household/family dynamics: "We Watch the MCU On TV"  

Yeah, no, for Thor 4... Wasn't well received but a bad film that festers is a no. Ant Man 3 was the big hurt. That and lingering vibes from Strange 2 and Thor 4. But, Ant Man was easily the worst received MCU anything since I guess Eternals. That one hurt. 

 

If Ant-Man had just gotten a similar reception to the first two even that would've helped. It was a total dud. Just a mess of a movie.

Edited May 8, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[Valonqar]

I think that audience has always judged MCU movies on movie to movie basis rather than whether they add up to MCU overall quality. Hence pretty big disparty between various boxoffice perfomances for individual movies (eg pre covid: Ant Man movies on one side and first BP on the other side). And will continue to do so. 

 

re: massive jump with actuals and unprecedented Sunday hold. Happy to see that Rocket arc is connecting with fans like noobdy's business. Even those who didn't like the movie overall rave his story. So instead of being a put-off, it's generating fantastic WOM. Risk paid off. 

 

Whoever cut the previews should be fired.

[thajdikt]

 

So 290M+ OW indeed

 

 

[Mr Roark]

$119M OW falls within the $110-120M last week predictions. It is still the lowest since NWH except for AM3.

[stripe]

119M

M-Th 35M 

F-S 55M
10day gross: around 210M

There is a chance Guardians outgrosses Quantumania DOM in just 10 days after an opening just 10M higher.
 

[Bordlove]

1 hour ago, Mr Roark said:

$119M OW falls within the $110-120M last week predictions. It is still the lowest since NWH except for AM3.

It will do well. Don't worry so much. 

[Napoleon]

18 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

So why is Guardians 3 doing better overseas this time around? Does the darker tone just work better in other places?

 

18 hours ago, Jonwo said:

I mean look at how well Batman does in many OS countries. In the UK, The Batman beat every MCU film that year apart from Doctor Strange and even then the difference was minimal. 

This is an interesting point. In 2016, Batman v Superman and Suicide Squad beat Captain America: Civil War in Europe, and basically tied in Latin America and Africa, according to the Focus report.

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

9 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

 

This is an interesting point. In 2016, Batman v Superman and Suicide Squad beat Captain America: Civil War in Europe, and basically tied in Latin America and Africa, according to the Focus report.

 

 

I'd come back at this with the point that Captain America as a brand has a rather different pull outside of North America.

 

Not that he isn't popular or anything but....he's Captain America.

 

Although yes I think there is a point here that the Snyder tone was less off-putting to the European sensibility especially. 

 

Certainly DC with Superman, Joker and Batman - characters that easily were as recognisable abroad as at home - had a much greater inherent advantage internationally of Marvel in terms of brand awareness than they did domestically. Makes the eventual triumph of the MCU over the DCEU even more impressive really.

[noobmaster69]

I love this one too much