The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[joselowe]

32 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Early Access for Gran Turismo on August 9.

 

Gran Turismo Early Access Fan Event at an AMC Theatre near you. (amctheatres.com)

[TheFlatLannister]

6 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

I'm pretty sure TMNT open on a Wednesday, How is there Thursday previews if it opens on Wednesday? Or did you mean Tuesday?

You are right, did not catch that. Thanks

[keysersoze123]

I think Monday PS for Barbie at MTC1 should be at DS2 levels. Question is can it accelerate better than that. It has less than half the shows DS2 had during its T-3 update :-)

[keysersoze123]

Friday sales are absolutely on a tear today. If Oppy could add more prime time shows it could open > 80m I think. Barbie could go for 175m+ with robust walkups. 

[emoviefan]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday sales are absolutely on a tear today. If Oppy could add more prime time shows it could open > 80m I think. Barbie could go for 175m+ with robust walkups. 

That's great for those movies. But Mission could have one of the worst drops for a movie with a A cinema score ever. God I hope rising tide lifts all boats. 

[redfirebird2008]

26 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday sales are absolutely on a tear today. If Oppy could add more prime time shows it could open > 80m I think. Barbie could go for 175m+ with robust walkups. 

 

But Oppenheimer won't get more shows because of Barbie. 

[DisposedData]

So holdovers are probably going to be in the dump next week aren't they?

[CM721]

45 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday sales are absolutely on a tear today. If Oppy could add more prime time shows it could open > 80m I think. Barbie could go for 175m+ with robust walkups. 

What is the chance you are looking at for Oppy > 70m and Barbie > 150m OW?

[martin]

24 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

But Oppenheimer won't get more shows because of Barbie. 

They can stole from MI7 and Indy.

[Ryan Reynolds]

14 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

So holdovers are probably going to be in the dump next week aren't they?

SoF won't , should be flat

[IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son]

22 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

So holdovers are probably going to be in the dump next week aren't they?

I'm predicting SOF to stay flat, its audience is the most independent from Barbenheimer out of all the holdovers. It might be in 3k+ theatres but the number of showings is actually pretty low so it doesn't have much downside.

Elemental will drop more, maybe 25-35% if Encanto's drop when NWH opened is anything to go by. Theatres still need a family movie for kids too young for Barbie.

The rest are gonna drop 50%+ I think.

[Liiviig 1998]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Friday sales are absolutely on a tear today. If Oppy could add more prime time shows it could open > 80m I think. Barbie could go for 175m+ with robust walkups. 

Will stick to 150/70 just to be on the cautious side.

 

And to think this whole Barbienhiemer meme started off as joke non of us took seriously and just for fun turned into this viral marketing phenomenon is insane.

 

Double features for this are gonna be insane . With how big this thing is looking I wouldn't really worry about shows. It will definitely take shows from holdovers.

 

The higher barbie goes ,the higher openhiemmer goes. 

 

 

 

[Mr Roark]

So Nolan is headed to the best DOM OW of his career except for the last two TDK movies.

With a biopic about a scientist.

Fascinating.

[charlie Jatinder]

19 hours ago, M37 said:

Waiting for a few more updates before bringing the charts back out, but the pace on Barbie especially and Oppy to a lesser extent has definitely cooled a bit. Seems to me that there was indeed a post-July 4th catch-up surge plus social media bump (T-11 to T-7)

WTF. The sales pace is probably highest since Endgame (TLK could be close may be). How is it cooled off?

[hasanahmad]

What will be more impressive 

 

175+ mill for Barbie 

 

or 

 

75+ mill for 3 hr - R rated scientist biopic 

[Liiviig 1998]

1 minute ago, hasanahmad said:

What will be more impressive 

 

175+ mill for Barbie 

 

or 

 

75+ mill for 3 hr - R rated scientist biopic 

Not taking anything away from oppy but a 175m opening for a barbie movie is nuts.

[vale9001]

5 minutes ago, hasanahmad said:

What will be more impressive 

 

175+ mill for Barbie 

 

or 

 

75+ mill for 3 hr - R rated scientist biopic 

 

barbie cause with the distribution a super hero flick gets would have gone to Episode 7 territory. 

Edited July 18, 2023 by vale9001

[Krissykins]

7 minutes ago, hasanahmad said:

What will be more impressive 

 

175+ mill for Barbie 

 

or 

 

75+ mill for 3 hr - R rated scientist biopic 

 Barbie. 
 

The biggest films of all time have a 3hr runtime and this is a Nolan film, not a random biopic.

 

I’ve seen this a lot on Twitter and mentioned it in the Barbie thread last week, lots of people are tweeting this about Oppenheimer, trying to manipulate things. $75m+ for it would be excellent. 
 

($75m for Barbie is almost double what I was predicting for it before presales, which is why I went with Barbie in response to your question). 

Edited July 18, 2023 by Krissykins

[ZattMurdock]

13 minutes ago, hasanahmad said:

What will be more impressive 

 

175+ mill for Barbie 

 

or 

 

75+ mill for 3 hr - R rated scientist biopic 

Barbie is a perfect storm. I love Nolan, I’m likely not watching Barbie in a movie theaters and I def will watch Oppenheimer. But Barbie is smelling like 2012’s Avengers at the box office.

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 Barbie. 
 

The biggest films of all time have a 3hr runtime and this is a Nolan film, not a random biopic.

 

I’ve seen this a lot on Twitter and mentioned it in the Barbie thread last week, lots of people are tweeting this about Oppenheimer, trying to manipulate things. $75m+ for it would be excellent. 
 

($75m for Barbie is almost double what I was predicting for it before presales, which is why I went with Barbie in response to your question). 

 

The biggest movies ever were not about the creation of the nuclear bomb, which is a subject that is bound to turn off a massive chunk of the audience who are looking for escapism at the movie theater. They already tried a movie similar to this in 1989 with Paul Newman and it was a gigantic flop. $30 million budget, less than $4 million of total revenue at the box office. Oppenheimer has a pretty steep hill to climb and should not be lumped in with the likes of Inception or Interstellar in terms of the potential audience.