The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vale9001]

i saw TET has some IMAX screenings even at 28.03 dollar for a ticket. Until now the most i have seen was 25 dollars. 

 

https://tickets.fandango.com/mobileexpress/seatselection?row_count=421295579&tid=AATZH&a=11533&mid=232920&chainCode=AMC&sdate=2023-10-13+18%3A00&wssaffid=11533_IMAX(Desktop)&wssac=63&route=map-seat-map

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Killers of the Flower Moon MTC1 Previews(T-24) - 10443/276077 204667.17 1661 shows

 

Solid start considering its a 3.5 hr drama. I am feeling good about this having 5m+ previews. How much higher let us see how the pace goes. This also wont be front loaded and so should be good for 40m+ OW. 

$5M probably need 100K in MTC 1. You think it can reach there?

[ThatWaluigiDude]

If KotFM turns out profitable after the massive overperformance of Oppenheimer, we would only need Napoleon to overperform too and we could start seeying some serious change in Hollywood business the next couple of years.

[vale9001]

Scorsese movie has been talked for months because of the Cannes preview, something unusual for an original pure drama movie. 

I really hope Sales can stay this High and a 40-50M debut can really happen but maybe sales right now should be a little bit more frontloaded than that the average drama movie with strongest late sales when the first reactions- reviews and everything come out (like for oppenheimer).

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by vale9001

[dobrevv]

 

[XXR & Friends]

Now things are getting interesting. Let’s see if this post bumps US sales and what kind of presales damage it will do internationally.

[vale9001]

Italian site Uci Cinemas (biggest chain here) just crashed 😅

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, vale9001 said:

Italian site Uci Cinemas (biggest chain here) just crashed 😅

That’s surprising because she’s not (comparatively) that huge in Italy.

[vale9001]

2 minutes ago, XXR's Eras Tour said:

That’s surprising because she’s not (comparatively) that huge in Italy.

 

she will make 2 san siro stadium shows get sold out in 30 minutes so i guess upon young people at least she's massive everywhere. 

Edited September 26, 2023 by vale9001

[Boxofficerules]

4 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Italian site Uci Cinemas (biggest chain here) just crashed 😅

Too many people logging on to buy Saw X tickets.

[DisposedData]

I think Eras will start to pick up. She is dominating headlines like crazy right now. 

[Arlborn]

36 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

I think Eras will start to pick up. She is dominating headlines like crazy right now. 

I can't escape her anywhere for the last couple of days, what the hell is that all about? It's like the world is trying to make me a Swiftie by force.

 

 

Also, why the hell are her movie tickets so damn expensive over here?? She charges her fans so much for...everything, it's crazy.

 

Some tickets are literally going for over 3x the usual price.

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Arlborn

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-18

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 105

Seats sold - 5661

Total seats - 17595

% sold - 32.2%

New sales - 111 (+2%)

3-day average of new sales - 37 tickets/day

Growth since T-37 (start of tracking) - 1132 (+25%)

 

At 25% growth during the bottom of the U-curve... hard for me to believe that it's sold 60% of its tickets here at least. 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-17

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 105

Seats sold - 5829

Total seats - 17595

% sold - 33.1%

New sales - 168 (!!) (+3%)

4-day average of new sales - 69.8 tickets/day

 

[jeffthehat]

8 minutes ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-17

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 105

Seats sold - 5829

Total seats - 17595

% sold - 33.1%

New sales - 168 (!!) (+3%)

4-day average of new sales - 69.8 tickets/day

 

 

This was pulled about an hour after she tweeted fyi... just shows what it can do with a hint of promo 

[Firepower]

2 hours ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

If KotFM turns out profitable after the massive overperformance of Oppenheimer, we would only need Napoleon to overperform too and we could start seeying some serious change in Hollywood business the next couple of years.

Fingers crossed.

[M37]

Taylor Swift Eras Tour T-18 Update

Hang on, let me dust off my tracking spreadsheet first

 

Then some important disclaimers:

Spoiler

First a MAJOR caveat: the process here has changed, as comping to daily checkpoint totals is not viable for this release. Why? Because the only remotely usable comps would be the big MCU titles - NWH, DSMoM, Thor, etc - but most of our current trackers don't have data points for those titles, so it would be a fairly empty chart. In addition, Eras has proven to be much more pre-sale heavy than those film, so the comp values at present would be hella inflated and constantly on the decline. For reference, Alpha as of T-21 would comp to DSMoM, BPWF and AMWQ at $70.2M, $89.14M and $71.7M before applying an ATP adjustment!

 

Instead, will be comping - as many trackers have already done - to the final sales total for select high volume films. As a result, since the denominator will not change, comp values can only go up over time (barring some show cancellation/mass refund scenario). In addition, an ATP adjustment of +50% (1.5x) has been applied to comp values except for Alpha, which runs a higher ATP than norm, and gets +40% instead. These are just ballpark estimates to come to some semblance of a value (ie don't hold me to them)

 

Chart and Analysis

Spoiler

 

Couple of observations:

• The comps within in each market/sample are closely grouped, because when comparing to the final total, its more a reflection of market share then much more variable pre-sale patterns over time
• Alpha comps are ridiculously high at this time, as more tickets have been purchased for ERAS opening Friday (516K as of T-21) than the Thursday preview of all but Thor (barely), DSMoM and NWH. However, the pace is also extremely low (little over 1K per day), and getting to 600K total sales from here is not assured IMO
• Drafthouse, usually a pre-sale powerhouse, is somewhat lagging for this release. Sales at T-18 update are behind Thor & even Barbie, not too much ahead of AMWQ. Those comps will drag down average on days they are updated
• Denver and Oklahoma, not typically higher volume pre-sale markets, are comping higher as the Swiftie rush gobbled up a lot of tickets already
• Again, as comp values cannot go down, these values represent the floor, with still 18 days of sales to go.

Overall, presuming the ATP adjustment math is close, still sitting in the range of where $40M Friday is in play, but not yet assured. Still of the mind that Alpha over-indexes for this release, but if it doesn't, over time we'll see the lower value comps start to rise up to meet it, but will take much higher pace than has been seen of late

 

 

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

$5M probably need 100K in MTC 1. You think it can reach there?

Piece of cake. it will be backloaded and its not going to over index at MTC1 either. Leo is star every where. Just wait and see. 

[keysersoze123]

This weeks releases. 

 

MTC1 Previews

The Creator - 17827/210190 342879.77 1092 shows

Saw X - 11868/174684 186085.36 1051 shows

 

Paw Patrol does not even have previews. Releases are small and not that much of a pace. I expect Saw X to have better walkups on Thursday as well. Both of them are tracking in 2-3m range previews.  

[Borobudur]

5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This weeks releases. 

 

MTC1 Previews

The Creator - 17827/210190 342879.77 1092 shows

Saw X - 11868/174684 186085.36 1051 shows

 

Paw Patrol does not even have previews. Releases are small and not that much of a pace. I expect Saw X to have better walkups on Thursday as well. Both of them are tracking in 2-3m range previews.  

Can paramount behave like a normal kid? They either have too much "previews" but now choose to not even have one for Paw.

[DAJK]

25 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Can paramount behave like a normal kid? They either have too much "previews" but now choose to not even have one for Paw.

Paw wouldn't do much for previews anyways.