The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[jeffthehat]

On 2/19/2024 at 10:18 AM, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Dune: Part Two T-10

Sales	Seats	Shows
1345	26895	156

 

Here's how it looks vs. the V-Day openers

 

Movie	Sales at T-10	Sales at T-1
Bob Marley	935	3309
Madame Web	492	1680

 

Growth for these was crazy so comps won't be accurate. Expecting it to split the difference around T-1 though. 

 

 

 

Indiana

Dune: Part Two T-6

Sales	Seats	Shows
1691	28523	166

 

vs. the V-Day openers

 

Movie	Sales at T-6	Sales at T-1
Bob Marley	1432	3309
Madame Web	732	1680

 

Still ahead of One Love but that will change soon. Sales are also about 7x Argylle T-6

[leoh]

32 minutes ago, ChiefBrody said:

Ghostbusters Afterlife brought back the original cast and still only managed $130 million domestically with all theaters opened and no seat reduction. I would hardly call that stronger. 

That was during the pandemic, in 2021. In the same year there was a KxG movie which barely passed 100M domestically. And you can argue anything about pandemics, then take the previous monster-verse movie which made only 110M domestically in 2019, once again less strong than a Ghostbusters release during the pandemics. I mean I think it’s a pretty clear that Ghostbusters is a stronger brand in the US. 

Edited February 23 by leoh

[ChiefBrody]

21 minutes ago, leoh said:

That was during the pandemic, in 2021. In the same year there was a KxG movie which barely passed 100M domestically. And you can argue anything about pandemics, then take the previous monster-verse movie which made only 110M domestically in 2019, once again less strong than a Ghostbusters release during the pandemics. I mean I think it’s a pretty clear that Ghostbusters is a stronger brand in the US. 

I’m not sure what it is you’re getting all bent out of shape over unless you’re a Ghostbusters fan boy

[Eric Prime]

Moderation 

 

Not the Ghostbusters/Godzilla thread.

[jeffthehat]

On 2/22/2024 at 1:20 PM, jeffthehat said:

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-7	1036	11158	62	+4.8%
Fri	T-8	1413	22401	129	+3.5%

Thursday Comps

1.63x The Marvels T-7 = $10.76m

3.28x Wonka T-7 = $11.48m 

2.05x HG BoSS T-7 = $11.79m

Friday Comp

2.1x The Marvels T-8 = $31.5m

2.37x HG BoSS T-8 = $31.42m

---

 

Pulled a couple hours earlier than yesterday. Hard to tell where this is heading overall. I'm still bullish ($80m-$90m) but we'll see how comps hold this week. 

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

Day	T-Release	Sales	Seats	Shows	Growth
Thu	T-6	1093	11158	62	+5.5%
Fri	T-7	1511	22401	129	+6.9%

Thursday Comps

1.65x The Marvels T-6 = $10.9m

3.52x Wonka T-6 = $12.3m 

2.01x HG BoSS T-6 = $11.6m

Friday Comps

2.22x The Marvels T-7 = $33.3m

2.46x HG BoSS T-7 = $32.7m

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1128	34	1353	83.37%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

573

2092

27.39%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

533

2137

24.94%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2688	171	20904	12.86%	13	107

 

1.238	Oppenheimer T-7	12.99M
2.743	Indiana Jones T-7	19.75M

0.756	Avatar 2 T-7	12.85M
0.457	Thor L&T T-7	13.24M
0.886	Batman T-7*	19.15M
2.055	Dune Part 1 T-7	10.48M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

 

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
1174	46	1353	86.77%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

603

2092

28.82%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

547

2137

25.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2836	148	20791	13.64%	13	106

 

2.732	Indiana Jones T-6	19.67M
0.877	Guardians T-6	15.35M

0.892	Batman T-6*	19.27M
2.034	Dune Part 1 T-6	10.38M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-7 Thursday

205 Showings

10919

+507

28962

ATP:

17.87

0.632	Barbie T-7	14.09M
1.816	Oppenheimer T-7	19.07M
1.923	Indiana Jones T-7	13.85M

1.823	Avatar T-7	30.99M
0.767	Thor L&T T-7	22.24M
1.002	Batman T-7*	17.64M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-8 Friday

271 Showings

12579

+592

39494

ATP:

17.53

0.708	Barbie T-8	34.12M
1.762	Oppenheimer T-8	39.67M
2.471	Indiana Jones T-8	41.51M

1.689	Avatar T-8	61.14M
1.054	Thor L&T T-8	42.74M
1.164	Batman T-8	40.83M

 

T-9 Saturday

280 Showings

14589

+605

40859

ATP:

17.05

0.778	Barbie T-9	37.21M
1.655	Oppenheimer T-9	43.94M
2.984	Indiana Jones T-9	55.44M

1.719	Avatar T-9	76.22M
1.283	Thor L&T T-9	54.05M
1.353	Batman T-9	58.55M

 

T-10 Sunday

252 Showings

9890

+549

36587

ATP:

17.03

0.699	Barbie T-10	30.53M
1.716	Oppenheimer T-10	39.78M
3.339	Indiana Jones T-10	60.44M

1.835	Avatar T-10	67.09M
1.552	Thor L&T T-10	50.44M
2.032	Batman T-10	69.36M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-6 Thursday

206 Showings

11362

+443

29023

ATP:

17.82

1.921	Indiana Jones T-6	13.83M
1.007	Guardians T-6	17.62M

0.982	Batman T-6*	17.29M
3.534	Dune Part 1 T-6	18.02M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-7 Friday

272 Showings

13150

+571

39555

ATP:

17.51

2.443	Indiana Jones T-7	41.05M
1.324	Guardians T-7	40.51M

1.135	Batman T-7	39.81M
2.866	Dune Part 1 T-7	35.54M

 

T-8 Saturday

281 Showings

15183

+594

40920

ATP:

17.02

2.914	Indiana Jones T-8	54.15M
1.402	Guardians T-8	54.51M

1.314	Batman T-8	56.86M
3.823	Dune Part 1 T-8	52.44M

 

T-9 Sunday

253 Showings

10362

+472

36648

ATP:

16.99

3.282	Indiana Jones T-9	59.41M
1.714	Guardians T-9	53.86M

1.939	Batman T-9	66.21M
3.507	Dune Part 1 T-9	34.29M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-7 Thursday

109 Showings

1810

+163

18353

1.075	Oppenheimer T-7	11.29M
1.700	Indiana Jones T-7	12.24M

 

T-8 Friday

166 Showings

2592

+272

28333

1.148	Oppenheimer T-8	25.86M
2.689	Indiana Jones T-8	45.17M

 

T-9 Saturday

172 Showings

2435

+201

29459

1.372	Oppenheimer T-9	36.01M
4.784	Indiana Jones T-9	88.88M

 

T-10 Sunday

176 Showings

1049

+147

29231

1.129	Oppenheimer T-10	26.19M
5.019	Indiana Jones T-10	90.85M

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-6 Thursday

109 Showings

1966

+156

18354

1.698

Indiana Jones T-6

12.22M

 

T-7 Friday

166 Showings

2862

+270

28338

2.670

Indiana Jones T-7

44.85M

 

T-8 Saturday

172 Showings

2739

+304

29462

4.882

Indiana Jones T-8

90.71M

 

T-9 Sunday

176 Showings

1180

+131

29236

5.086

Indiana Jones T-9

92.06M

[ChipDerby]

7 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-6 Thursday

109 Showings

1966

+156

18354

1.698

Indiana Jones T-6

12.22M

 

T-7 Friday

166 Showings

2862

+270

28338

2.670

Indiana Jones T-7

44.85M

 

T-8 Saturday

172 Showings

2739

+304

29462

4.882

Indiana Jones T-8

90.71M

 

T-9 Sunday

176 Showings

1180

+131

29236

5.086

Indiana Jones T-9

92.06M

 

$240 mil OW sounds plausible!

[TheFlatLannister]

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-7

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
591	6571	112287	5.9%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

334

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

14

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2553

*84 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-7

 

(1.149x) of Oppenheimer $12.07M 

(0.490x) of Barbie $10.35M 

(0.598x) of ATSV $10.37M 

(2.351x) of Wonka $8.23M 

(2.334x) of Aquaman 2 $10.50M 

 

Comps AVG: $10.30M

 

Mild review bump continues.

 

Couple of things to note: I might remove Barbie comp since that may drop all the way down to $8M by T-0. Oppy comp will be around $10M by T-0 if i had to guess. 

 

Not too confident about $80M anymore, but still feel $75M+ is happening 

 

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
591	6950	112287	6.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

379

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2704

*151 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.070x) of Oppenheimer $11.23M 

(0.477x) of Barbie $10.08M 

(0.584x) of ATSV $10.14M 

(2.319x) of Wonka $8.12M 

(2.339x) of Aquaman 2 $10.53M 

 

Comps average: $10.02M

Edited February 23 by TheFlatLannister

[HummingLemon496]

Exactly $12.0M preview dream slowly dying

 

 

 

[M37]

15 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Exactly $12.0M preview dream slowly dying

 

 

 

Why are you rooting for that specific number? 

 

(And if they include EA, then $12M still extremely plausible)

Edited February 24 by M37

[Boxofficerules]

Imaginary is going to own Dune Part 2.

[HummingLemon496]

20 minutes ago, M37 said:

Why are you rooting for that specific number? 

 

(And if they include EA, then $12M still extremely plausible)

Legion's 12*7 prophecy 

[patyx]

11 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Legion's 12*7 prophecy 

This prophecy is how they enslave us!

[leoh]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

FLORIDA 

 

DUNE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
591	6950	112287	6.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

379

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

2704

*151 seats sold

 

COMPS

T-6

 

(1.070x) of Oppenheimer $11.23M 

(0.477x) of Barbie $10.08M 

(0.584x) of ATSV $10.14M 

(2.319x) of Wonka $8.12M 

(2.339x) of Aquaman 2 $10.53M 

 

Comps average: $10.02M

as I expected (and I think you as well) the closer Dune gets to the release the more down to earth its projections seem.

[dallas]

$10.5M previews (without EA) with a 7.5x IM is what I'm expecting. 

Edited February 24 by dallas

[HummingLemon496]

4 minutes ago, dallas said:

$10.5M previews (without EA) with a 7.5x IM is what I'm expecting. 

I'm hoping for (10.5*7.81) + 2 to get 84

[leoh]

28 minutes ago, dallas said:

$10.5M previews (without EA) with a 7.5x IM is what I'm expecting. 

Is it around 75M? I’d say anything between 65M and 75M OW is what most of projections seem to agree as the “most likely”.

 

Theaters seem to be aware of that, Dune will lose the Dolby Cinema halls in its second weekend, Kung Fu Panda 4 will take over Dolby Cinema from March 8. 

 

 

Edited February 24 by leoh

[DInky]

Really feels like Dune has a hard ceiling when it comes to interest from the general audience.