The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[JustLurking]

please take the dumb do casuals like dune convo out of this thread

[Starphanluke]

Ah, I see we’ve reached the Doom and Gloom portion of tracking. Right on schedule.

 

Idk, I just don’t understand the sudden shock that maybe Dune doesn’t have the General Audience appeal of most franchises. Like, of course. It’s Dune.

 

I do think Timothee and Zendaya have strong pull with Gen Z, so walkups aren’t totally lost. And a lot of people are hyper-fixating on Thursday, when a lot of data in this thread shows sales nicely spread out throughout the weekend. Sales in my city certainly show the same—largely thanks to PLF availability. I imagine that affect will carry on to give the movie nice weekdays as well.

 

I just don’t see how anything above $60m (and that’s super pessimistic at this point) can be considered disappointing or upset for freaking Dune. Especially when most people assumed this second part would never be made.

 

If anything, this feels like it has been the most “standard” tracking run in a while. Could be a good baseline to track other PLF-heavy movies (Gladiator?) going forward.

[leoh]

38 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

The first movie has a 90% approval on RT and a 8.0 average on IMDb on 800k votes. Plus an A- cinemascore.

This movie started with 9.1 on IMDb. Not every movie with "fans" starts with that.

 

I don't see data suggesting dune has a "terrible reputation" on GA.

What this saga has not is the interest from Kids and under 25 people (despite they involved chalamet and Zendaya) so this has an impact on previews and not weekend days (especially when the movie is 3 hours long). 

Let's see if WOM can change this. 

 

 

 

 

in fact it started with 9.4 (hence the news saying it was the most well rated ever movie on IMDb.

 

But yeah I understand what you mean

Edited February 29 by leoh

[vafrow]

On 2/28/2024 at 6:33 AM, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-2 Thursday previews

 

Previews

Total Sales: 1064

New Sales: 132

Growth: 14%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 24.2

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 44/11

Early Evening: 691/21

Late Evening: 329/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes=tickets per showtime)

Dolby: 230/8

IMAX: 539/4

VIP: 228/12

Regular: 48/21

4dx: 19/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.673 of Marvels for $11.0M

2.915 of HG: BoSS for $16.8M

 

Not bad, but I was hoping to see the growth rate jump a little bit.

 

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-1 Thursday previews

 

Previews

Total Sales: 1203

New Sales: 139

Growth: 13%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 27.3

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 62/11

Early Evening: 762/21

Late Evening: 379/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes=tickets per showtime)

Dolby: 273/8=34.1

IMAX: 583/4=145.8

VIP: 253/12=21.1

Regular: 73/21=6.1

4dx: 21/2=10.5

 

Comps (no EA)

1.657 of Marvels for $10.9M

2.857 of HG: BoSS for $16.4M

 

The growth rate has had a slight decline for the second day in a row. That's not a good way to finish off.

 

The lack of good comps and some of the other factors in this market (sample that ogerindexss IMAX, general overperformance of franchise in Canada) make it hard to really put too much faith in them. It is worth noting that it declined slightly against the Marvels comp.

 

Some other observations of the data:

IMAX sales make 48.5% of sales. It was closer to 60% at one point, so it came down, but not by much.

 

-Theres still a fair bit of IMAX capacity, but, it's not great seats, that I see potential buyers looking at it and choosing another night. I generally think walk ups are going to be mediocre. I unfortunately won't have a chance to do a pull later today to assess walk ups.

 

-While there's still a lot of near empty showings, there's only five zero sales showings.

 

Edit: I added the tickets per showtime amounts by format, as I find that the most fascinating. 

Edited February 29 by vafrow

[vafrow]

21 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-9 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 86

New Sales: 21

Growth: 32%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.1

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 21/3

Early Evening: 37/6

Late Evening: 25/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 67/8
3D Regular: 6/5
Dolby: 13/1

 

Comps

1.955x Wonka for $6.8M

 

The showtimes were added, but it only got three more. I'm guessing it'll get more screens on Friday though. 

 

It was a good growth day though.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-8 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 91

New Sales: 5

Growth: 6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 3/2

Late Afternoon: 21/3

Early Evening: 42/6

Late Evening: 25/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 67/8
3D Regular: 9/5
Dolby: 15/1

 

Comps

1.978x Wonka for $6.9

 

Mediocre day. Nothing too interesting.

 

[vale9001]

43 minutes ago, leoh said:

 

in fact it started with 9.4 (hence the news saying it was the most well rated ever movie on IMDb.

 

But yeah I understand what you mean

Chalamet and Zendaya (so the idea of choosing rising stars Upon teens and under 25 people) was the best idea they had. Cause even with them this saga hasn't really touched the interest of young people. Without them we would see even "worst" numbers imo. Imagine a kinda of debuting young actor for Paul (like Harry Potter or Twilight actors were) and as I said would be worst.

[Eric the Minion]

Moderation

 

Not the "do people like Dune" thread. Please move this off-topic discussion on whether Dune is actually popular or not to the actual Dune 2 thread.

[Eric the Minion]

Moderation

 

We're also not doing this insipid "OMG DUNE IS THIS EPIC FAILURE NOW" hyperbole. We were all championing a 70M opening, even a 65M opening as good results. But now you guys are having tantrums and meltdowns over it grossing those? It's really not funny and unproductive. Please act a little more relaxed and reserved.

[SpiderByte]

Not every critical hit is gonna be Oppenheimer, and not every critical tank is gonna be Madame Web. It happens.

 

It's not even doing bad, just not as good as some previous tracking surges indicated.

Edited February 29 by SpiderByte

[M37]

On 2/5/2024 at 2:24 PM, M37 said:

Just going to plant a quick flag ....

 

All-in-all, I expect Dune II to be a relatively boring track. There will probably be some time in the middle where daily sales are solid, comps drift up, and some people will start to dream of bigger numbers with an accelerated high-pace finish ... but IMO its more likely it winds up a more tepid final few days (relatively speaking) and we'll circle back in the same range everyone has it at now.  Like Avatar 2, but at half the total volume (for Thursday, +EA)

Reading the doom and gloom on the last few pages, looks like the tracking circle is now complete

[Firepower]

Anything above 80 is good. Below 70 is not, at least it would need much better legs with x4+ multi which I'm not sure is feasible even with reception like this.

[Arlborn]

6 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I don't see why Fall Guy would do better than stuff Bullet Train or Free Guy. Original action comedies seem to have a ceiling (and based on Argylle, no floor). Dont see it going over $100mil DOM/$300 mil WW unless it has great WoM.

 

Fall Guy seems to lean a lot on its romantic angle, much more than Bullet Train or Free Guy. As in, probably enough to bring quite a few women to the theater, something that I doubt Free Guy or Bullet Train did.

 

I'm bullish on it, studio seems bullish on it as well, it has a lot going for it both with men and women, and it seems that it picked its leads perfectly for a movie coming out in 2024.

 

I think it can break 200M if the quality is there.

[M37]

On 2/27/2024 at 8:21 AM, M37 said:

Dune Part 2 T-3 Thursday Preview Comps

On Monday, the recent slide not only stopped, but reversed a bit.

Note: Thursday only comps unless noted; average includes additional data points not shown on chart

 

Average is floating around $11M, but that may overstated, as it includes a few comps with EA, as well as Avatar and its 3D-inflated ATP. Target right now me looks like ~$10.5M for Thursday

 

However, despite the solid sales day [which as I noted above might be a defacto review bump with WOM from EA shows] perhaps the most relevant data points for Monday might be those from previously hibernating trackers Katniss and Rehpyc, giving us a view of both a non-cinephile mid-level markets (Jax/Ral/Pho), and the more GA friendly MTC3.  Most of those comps are sub-$10M, which only reinforces my belief that the demand for Dune II is going to be lacking depth, beyond the big cities and PLF screens.

 

tl;dr - I don't usually update the Forecast Matrix after T-7, but if given the opportunity with the new data over the last few days, would not shift the midpoints of the values, though at this time do believe over $80M is more likely than not, if only slightly

Dune Part 2 T-1 Thursday Preview Comps

No time for chart today, but the (likely inflated) average fell from $10.7M to $10.35M, and probably drops further in last round of updates.

 

Yeah, pace is bad, but probably need to pump the breaks on the sub-$70M train. Presales are still very strong, and even with a low end CBM type of finish, $9M+ seems likely, and IM should be in 8x range. MTC1 probably finishes ~180K for Thursday, and even though demand seems to be metro-centric, some of those metros (and chains) are way high, and fewer walk-up/standard tickets means a higher ATP vs comps.

I'd probably knock forecast down a bit to like ~$9.5M preview and mid to high $70s OW. Both myself and ViewerAnon did try to warn y'all a few weeks ago that there was going to be a GA weakness/ceiling here

On 2/8/2024 at 5:44 PM, ViewerAnon said:

DUNE: PART TWO just doesn't feel - and hey, I could always be wrong, check back in a month - like a movie that's going to bring in people who didn't see or didn't like the first. Audiences know at this point whether DUNE is or isn't for them, so the movie's depending on audience growth from streamers who now pay for tickets and people who came to the first in the interim between movies.

 

How big is that audience? We'll see. Just based on personal feeling, an opening that's 75% higher due to sequel rush and a total around 50% higher due to those newly accounted ticket buyers sounds about right to me.

On 2/8/2024 at 4:46 PM, M37 said:

So if it feels like I'm trying to constantly pump the breaks here, its because no matter high the presales climb over the next two weeks, I just don't think there will be a strong GA surge at the end. There's plenty of examples - Avatar 2, TGM, even NTTD - where these older & whiter audience films just don't have a strong finish

 

In the big picture though, it could lead to stronger, well above average legs for March, as at least some of the GA comes around in later weeks as what seems to be incredible WOM builds. Or perhaps, even those that are passing are Dune II might be willing to come out for the more popcorn-action flick GXK. So IMO we're less seeing of loss of potential, just shift in when and how those GA dollars are spent

[dallas]

Like I said, presales are strong throughout the weekend, as other trackers have too reported. The IM will probably fall into the 8 range, at least high 7's. And considering that this movie has slim direct competition for nearly a month, I expect great legs. This may be optimistic but a 3.0x multiplier is possible. There's no reason to panic unless this movie truly falls off a cliff. 

[Joyous Legion]

39 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

 

Fall Guy seems to lean a lot on its romantic angle, much more than Bullet Train or Free Guy. As in, probably enough to bring quite a few women to the theater, something that I doubt Free Guy or Bullet Train did.

 

I'm bullish on it, studio seems bullish on it as well, it has a lot going for it both with men and women, and it seems that it picked its leads perfectly for a movie coming out in 2024.

 

I think it can break 200M if the quality is there.

and this is how I learned that the Fall Guy movie people have been talking about was not a years late video game adaptation 

[SpiderByte]

3 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

and this is how I learned that the Fall Guy movie people have been talking about was not a years late video game adaptation 

Nope. It's actually based on an old TV show.

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

Damn, I lose power last night and everyone goes sadz:)...when a movie still hasn't even opened...and we just had a movie blow the roof off tracking and presales to weekend multipliers just 2 weeks ago...

 

But I digress...instead, let's keep on the sour path with more March presale sets to see that big weekends aren't gonna save the rest of the month...nothing, save Ghostbusters, is looking at even $50M possible from the opening set, let alone $100M...aka, don't think high on KFP4, when the family theater isn't booking it...

 

PLF 14

Kung Fu Panda 4 - 1.5 screens (.5 PLF - split with Dune, 1 reg)

Cabrini - 1 screen

Imaginary - 1 screen

Arthur The King - 1 screen

Ghostbusters - 2 screens (1PLF, 1 reg)

 

Non-PLF 12

KFP4 - 1 screen

Cabrini - 1 screen

Imaginary - 1 screen

Arthur the King - 1 screen

Ghostbusters - 2 screens

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Fall Guy having nearly 2 months of presales is bizarre.

Universal has been doing the occasional early pre-sale cycle months in advance for a while, most recently for Fast X. Fifty Shades Freed went on sale when the trailer dropped in November '17 three months before release. Mamma Mia 2 also went on sale in early May '18 for its late July release. Have to imagine it's pretty easy to plan out when the movie is finished or close to it and the runtime has been set (The Fall Guy earned its MPA rating back in August, so it's been in a vault waiting to be released for a while).

[vafrow]

11 hours ago, misterpepp said:

Fall Guy tix on sale March 12

 

Man, these long sales windows are annoying. I'm trying to limit myself to two concurrent tracks at a time for the most part, but this makes it difficult.

 

I want to do this one since being a non superhero movie as the summer launch is intriguing, but thats a long stretch to track. I'm guessing it aligns to its SXSW release.

 

I believe Ghostbusters is supposed to go up today, but no sign of it so far. GxK is an intriguing track that's probably going online in the next week or so.

 

It's probably not going to do huge numbers, but I've been intrigued about Monkey Man for a while and probably will want to track that.

 

Once I start a track, I feel compelled to track daily, but for situations where there's not much going on, I may choose not to post daily. Although, I said that for KFP4, and have stayed on it pretty consistently. Two months of Fall Guy though will be a chore.

 

Edit:

 

Ghostbusters just went up at MTC4. It's getting Dolby and IMAX screens.

Edited February 29 by vafrow

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Dune: Part Two	T-1	Jax	6	91	131	1,128	13,367	8.44%
		Phx	7	74	260	1,051	11,534	9.11%
		Ral	8	77	145	1,065	9,887	10.77%
	Total		21	242	536	3,244	34,788	9.33%

 

T-1 comps

 - Dune - 1.84x (9.38m) +17%

 - Top Gun 2 - .574x (8.44m) +20.8%

 - Batman - .442x (7.77m) +17.1%

 - Jurassic World 3 - .537x (9.51m) +19.4%

 - Eternals - .949x (9.02m) +13.3%

 - Black Widow - .694x (9.16m) +14.4%

 - Flash - 1.17x (11.34m) +20.7%

 - Avatar 2 - .526x (8.94m) +15.6%

 - Oppenheimer - .949x (9.77m) +15.5%

 

Growth of 19.8% was third best of all comps.  Two-day pace of +42.7% was in line with TG2 (42.6%) and JW3 (42.4%), ahead of Oppy (37.1%) but well behind Dune 1 (49.5%).  Expecting around +24% tomorrow.

 

Forecast is up to 9.55m now with another good day. 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Chosen 4: 7-8	T-0	Jax	5	14	136	136	1,615	8.42%
		Phx	5	14	137	137	1,256	10.91%
		Ral	8	19	112	112	2,057	5.44%
	Total		18	47	385	385	4,928	7.81%
Dune: Part Two	T-0	Jax	6	91	217	1,345	13,367	10.06%
		Phx	7	75	288	1,339	11,774	11.37%
		Ral	8	80	246	1,310	9,906	13.22%
	Total		21	246	751	3,994	35,047	11.40%

 

Dune 2 T-0 comps

 - Dune - 1.81x (9.21m) +25.5%

 - Top Gun 2 - .592x (8.7m) +19.4%

 - Batman - .441x (7.75m) +23.4%

 - Jurassic World 3 - .539x (9.54m) +22.6%

 - Eternals - .963x (9.15m) +21.3%

 - Black Widow - .69x (9.1m) +23.9%

 - Flash - 1.11x (10.74m) +30%

 - Avatar 2 - .547x (9.29m) +18.36%

 - Oppenheimer - .94x (9.68m) +24.3%

 

The +23.1% was only slightly behind expected.  3-day pace was closest to JW3 of my comps.  Well below Dune 1 but ahead of Oppy, Batman and Top Gun.  Forecast with one update to go is $9.27m.

 

Chosen T-0 comps

 - Chosen 3 Finale - .248x (415k)

 - Chosen 3 (Fri) - .155x (583k)

 - Left Behind - .848x (518k)

 - Heard the Bells - .776x (600k)

 

Forecast is 545k.