The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Speedorito]

If Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt singing a classic Taylor Swift song on SNL can’t give The Fall Guy a strong kick in the pants, I’m not sure anything will. Better hope the reviews from critics who weren’t at SXSW are just as positive as the ones from critics who were. 

[emoviefan]

3 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

If Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt singing a classic Taylor Swift song on SNL can’t give The Fall Guy a strong kick in the pants, I’m not sure anything will. Better hope the reviews from critics who weren’t at SXSW are just as positive as the ones from critics who were. 

Yeah. Welcome to Post Covid moviegoing. Maybe these types of movies really can't break out big anymore. Would like to think they can still.

[Flopped]

Could Abigail hit 20 based on these pre-sales? 

[vale9001]

2 hours ago, Speedorito said:

If Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt singing a classic Taylor Swift song on SNL can’t give The Fall Guy a strong kick in the pants, I’m not sure anything will. Better hope the reviews from critics who weren’t at SXSW are just as positive as the ones from critics who were. 

 

Taylor even posted it on twitter and instagram.

 

Btw I think for both The fall guy and Challengers is the WOM once they're out what matters. The first of course have to make more cause its budget is mid blockbuster level. 40-45M would be a decent start but also 30-35 with a good WOM wouldn't be that bad imo (budget is 125M, not 200M or more) and I think can do decent- good numbers all around the world. Less than that would be bad of course. 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-18, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 11

New Sales since T-20: 5

Growth: 83%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.1

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 10/6

Late Evening: 1/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 8/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 3/2

 

EA sales

Total: 33

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

1.222x Wonka for $4.3M

0.379x GB:FE for $1.8M

 

Comps (includes EA)

4.888x Wonka for $17.1M

1.517x GB:FE for $7.1M

 

It's been so slow that I wasn't going to bother posting daily updates until this weekend, but we're starting to see some movement. It's stil pretty quiet, but it is moving. I wonder if the SNL appearance helped put some spotlight on this.

 

I'm still keeping the separate comps for EA vs non EA. But the gap in sales between the two is closing at least.

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-17, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 11

New Sales since T-20: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 10/6

Late Evening: 1/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 8/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 3/2

 

EA sales

Total: 38

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

1.222x Wonka for $4.3M

0.333x GB:FE for $1.6M

 

Comps (includes EA)

5.444x Wonka for $19.1M

1.485x GB:FE for $7.0M

 

After some progress the day before, fairly quiet today. Zero sales for previews, slight bump on EA.

 

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-18, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 11

New Sales since T-20: 5

Growth: 83%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 1.1

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 10/6

Late Evening: 1/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 8/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 3/2

 

EA sales

Total: 33

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

1.222x Wonka for $4.3M

0.379x GB:FE for $1.8M

 

Comps (includes EA)

4.888x Wonka for $17.1M

1.517x GB:FE for $7.1M

 

It's been so slow that I wasn't going to bother posting daily updates until this weekend, but we're starting to see some movement. It's stil pretty quiet, but it is moving. I wonder if the SNL appearance helped put some spotlight on this.

 

I'm still keeping the separate comps for EA vs non EA. But the gap in sales between the two is closing at least.

 

The Fall Guy, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-17, Thursday previews and Wednesday EA

 

Total Sales: 11

New Sales since T-20: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 12

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.9

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Evening: 10/6

Late Evening: 1/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

 

Dolby: 8/6

IMAX: 0/4

4DX: 3/2

 

EA sales

Total: 38

Showtimes: 6

Theatres: 5

 

Comps (Previews only, no EA)

1.222x Wonka for $4.3M

0.333x GB:FE for $1.6M

 

Comps (includes EA)

5.444x Wonka for $19.1M

1.485x GB:FE for $7.0M

 

After some progress the day before, fairly quiet today. Zero sales for previews, slight bump on EA.

 

[stripe]

Why should The Fall Guy have strong presales 20 days before its opening? It's an original film, not a well-known franchise that fans will rush for. I expect presales to boost in last days with demand spreading all over the weekend, not just previews.

Ryan Gosling & Emily Blunt in SNL should help increase GA awareness, not necesarily presales.

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

The fall guy being a let down does not sit well with me because it’s an original. That being said, it seems like films that on paper should perform strong … do not. Even popular IP films are disappointing.The idea of a movie star being a bo draw is long dead to me. And then look at Civil War.

 

Maybe now HW will learn to embrace more original ideas and fresh faces in front and behind the cameras. The audiences for one seem to be interested. 

[AniNate]

I can only say I felt both tracking and predictions were a little overzealous about it early on because of the SXSW reactions and the early May "Marvel" release date. Free Guy WW numbers seem most realistic for it, which would still be pretty solid on a $125 mil budget

[Arlborn]

2 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I can only say I felt both tracking and predictions were a little overzealous about it early on because of the SXSW reactions and the early May "Marvel" release date. Free Guy WW numbers seem most realistic for it, which would still be pretty solid on a $125 mil budget

I'm still very bullish on it and always have been even before any reviews came out simply because it is a movie that I think will work well for the GA.

 

But Free Guy has always been one of the most used comps for it, as well as The Lost City and Bullet Train.

[AJG]

50 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

The fall guy being a let down does not sit well with me because it’s an original. That being said, it seems like films that on paper should perform strong … do not. Even popular IP films are disappointing.The idea of a movie star being a bo draw is long dead to me. And then look at Civil War.

 

Maybe now HW will learn to embrace more original ideas and fresh faces in front and behind the cameras. The audiences for one seem to be interested. 

 

It's not. 

[filmlover]

I've always felt numbers in the Free Guy/Bullet Train area would've been more than acceptable for The Fall Guy. This was never, ever coming close to Barbenheimer numbers.

 

[Cmasterclay]

Never saw any reason why Fall Guy would do over 50 or 60 like some predictions - a slightly better reviewed and marketed Bullet Train seemed like such a natural comp it seemed unfair to even take it, and that would be about 35/115 or 120.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-3	Jax	5	16	5	21	2,051	1.02%
		Phx	6	15	4	24	2,900	0.83%
		Ral	8	17	9	29	1,989	1.46%
	Total		19	48	18	74	6,940	1.07%
Spy x Family	T-3	Jax	5	16	5	83	1,658	5.01%
		Phx	6	18	3	95	3,928	2.42%
		Ral	8	21	5	84	1,986	4.23%
	Total		19	55	13	262	7,572	3.46%
Ungentlemanly	T-3	Jax	5	11	9	24	997	2.41%
		Phx	6	12	5	27	1,338	2.02%
		Ral	8	11	5	21	1,139	1.84%
	Total		19	34	19	72	3,474	2.07%

 

Spy x Family T-3 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .233x (1m)

 - JJK:0 - .217x (639k)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .165x (823k)

 - One Piece - .431x (748k)

 

Size adjusted comp - 722k

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-3 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .436x (531k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .193x (601k)

 - Turtles - .134x (454k)

 - Civil War - .242x (575k)

 

Size adjusted comp - 614k

 

Abigail T-3 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .725x (903k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Insidious 5 - .228x (1.14m)

 - Immaculate - 2.387x (1.31m)

 - Blackening - 1.805x (1.35m)

 - Firestarter - 1x (384k)

 - First Omen - 2.242x (1.626m)

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.01m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Abigail	T-2	Jax	5	22	2	23	2,774	0.83%
		Phx	6	18	10	34	3,048	1.12%
		Ral	8	20	6	35	2,364	1.48%
	Total		19	60	18	92	8,186	1.12%
Spy x Family	T-2	Jax	5	16	6	89	1,658	5.37%
		Phx	6	20	13	108	4,023	2.68%
		Ral	8	22	3	87	2,038	4.27%
	Total		19	58	22	284	7,719	3.68%
Ungentlemanly	T-2	Jax	5	19	1	25	1,756	1.42%
		Phx	6	14	9	36	1,457	2.47%
		Ral	8	13	17	38	1,243	3.06%
	Total		19	46	27	99	4,456	2.22%

 

Spy x Family T-2 adjusted comps

 - Dragon Ball - .231x (1.02m)

 - JJK:0 - .21x (619k)

 - Demon Slayer 2 - .152x (755k)

 - One Piece - .407x (707k)

 - Suzume - 1.03x (702k)

 - My Hero Academia (OD) - .243x (877k)

 

Size adjusted comp - 712k

 

Ministry of Ungentlemanly... T-2 adjusted comps (Previews)

 - Snake Eyes - .432x (526k)

 - Equalizer 3 - .219x (681k)

 - Turtles - .168x (570k)

 - Civil War - .262x (623k)

 - Plane - 1.06x (665k)

 - Devotion - 1.1x (693k)

 - Babylon - .569x

 

Size adjusted comp - 655k

 

Abigail T-2 adjusted comps

 - Talk to Me - .667x (830k)

 - M3GAN - .42x (1.16m)

 - Insidious 5 - .226x (1.13m)

 - Immaculate - 2.19x (1.2m)

 - Blackening - 1.917x (1.44m)

 - Firestarter - 1.034x (397k)

 - First Omen - 1.769x (1.282m)

 

Size adjusted comp - 1m

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Challengers	T-10	Jax	5	19	2	8	3,641	0.22%
		Phx	6	17	5	30	2,336	1.28%
		Ral	6	15	2	17	2,455	0.69%
	Total		17	51	9	55	8,432	0.65%
Challengers (EA)	T-7	Jax	5	5	3	16	1,392	1.15%
		Phx	1	1	1	7	208	3.37%
		Ral	2	2	3	13	412	3.16%
	Total		8	8	7	36	2,012	1.79%
Unsung Hero	T-10	Jax	5	9	0	28	1,073	2.61%
		Phx	5	10	0	16	1,992	0.80%
		Ral	7	11	0	17	980	1.73%
	Total		17	30	0	61	4,045	1.51%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-9	Jax	5	5	3	202	644	31.37%
		Phx	6	8	-2	290	802	36.16%
		Ral	8	9	8	267	824	32.40%
	Total		19	22	9	759	2,270	33.44%

 

Unsung Hero (Total) T-10 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .682x (2.25m)

 - Sound of Freedom - .704x (3.66m)

 - Left Behind - 6.308x (3.85m)

 

Challengers (Total) T-10 comps

 - I Wanna Dance - .85x (636k)

 - Elvis (Total) - .279x (1m)

 - Creed III (Total) - .313x (1.4m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .487x (1.62m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 1.083x (1.08m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.625x (1.79m)

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.21m

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Boy Kills World	T-9	Jax	5	12	3	3	779	0.39%
		Phx	3	5	4	4	596	0.67%
		Ral	5	7	0	0	546	0.00%
	Total		13	24	7	7	1,921	0.36%
Challengers	T-9	Jax	5	19	1	9	3,641	0.25%
		Phx	6	17	-2	28	2,336	1.20%
		Ral	6	15	0	17	2,455	0.69%
	Total		17	51	-1	54	8,432	0.64%
Challengers (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	5	3	19	1,392	1.36%
		Phx	1	1	1	8	208	3.85%
		Ral	2	2	0	13	412	3.16%
	Total		8	8	4	40	2,012	1.99%
Unsung Hero	T-9	Jax	5	9	6	34	1,073	3.17%
		Phx	5	10	2	18	1,992	0.90%
		Ral	8	13	4	21	1,238	1.70%
	Total		18	32	12	73	4,303	1.70%
Unsung Hero (EA)	T-8	Jax	5	6	5	207	738	28.05%
		Phx	6	8	10	300	802	37.41%
		Ral	8	9	1	268	824	32.52%
	Total		19	23	16	775	2,364	32.78%

 

Unsung Hero (Total) T-9 comps

 - Jesus Revolution (Total) - .698x (2.3m)

 - Sound of Freedom - .66x (3.43m)

 - Left Behind - 6.19x (3.78m)

 - Downton Abbey - 1.82x (3.35m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3m

 

Challengers (Total) T-9 comps

 - I Wanna Dance - .783x (585k)

 - Elvis (Total) - .26x (933k)

 - Creed III (Total) - .28x (1.25m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .463x (1.54m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 1.119x (1.12m)

 - Joy Ride (Total) - 1.516x (1.67m)

 - Strays (Total) - 1.424x (1.57m)

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.24m

 

Boy Kills World T-9 comps

 - Vengeance - 1x

[emoviefan]

Just a reminder that The Fall Guy is still  two and a half weeks away and it is not the type of movie that people  feel that they have to buy tickets for early. Yes it's looking like 40+ for OW is less and less likely but WOM should be good. And with no 800 LB gorilla movie in May it's going to have room to stretch it's legs. Apes in it's second weekend is a different enough movie they should coexist. But this is BO theory so yes let's determine it's ultimate fate now.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, Arlborn said:

I'm still very bullish on it and always have been even before any reviews came out simply because it is a movie that I think will work well for the GA.

 

But Free Guy has always been one of the most used comps for it, as well as The Lost City and Bullet Train.

Yeah I want to see the Lost City and Bullet train comps. Those will tell where it stands.

[AniNate]

Overall box office should get a bit of a boost this week just because of the volume of releases coming out, unless Civil War has like a really terrible drop. Seems like Abigail gaining some pretty solid traction now.

[katnisscinnaplex]

I've got Bullet Train starting at T-14 (Thursday) and Lost City starting T-11 (Sunday)

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

The fall guy being a let down does not sit well with me because it’s an original. That being said, it seems like films that on paper should perform strong … do not. Even popular IP films are disappointing.The idea of a movie star being a bo draw is long dead to me. And then look at Civil War.

 

Maybe now HW will learn to embrace more original ideas and fresh faces in front and behind the cameras. The audiences for one seem to be interested. 

 

I know someone told you it's not original, but didn't tell you why.

 

The Fall Guy was actually a 1980's tv show about stunt performers that lasted 5 seasons. 

 

From Wiki - "The Fall Guy is an American action-adventure television series produced for ABC and originally broadcast from November 4, 1981, to May 2, 1986. It stars Lee Majors, Douglas Barr, and Heather Thomas as Hollywood stunt performers who moonlight as bounty hunters."

 

The movie is apparently only loosely based on the show, but it is still loosely based on the show.