The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Migs20242]

So here will be the July 5-7 weekend prediction

 

DM4

IO2

AQP Day One

Maxxxine

Bad Boy Ride or Die/ Sound of Freedom

[excel1]

13 hours ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Any date for when Trap starts?

 

very important questions which needs answering 

[SpiderByte]

Tracking sounding great for Deadpool. Marvel seems very confident in it too, especially with early reactions starting to hit.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MTC1 Previews (T-23) - 200190/1281668 3684190.08 7874 shows // +1837 over past 2 days

 

I think this is the new level as we are approaching final 3 weeks. Thor was at 247907 at T-7. Of course there is inflation. But ATP will keep going down as it sells more as most tickets are standard. So we have to do the T-7 comps. That would anyway be my final update and so that is where I am looking at for now 🙂

Expecting it to be around ~275K+ at T-7. ~400-425K at T-1 and end with 600K+.

Edited July 3 by charlie Jatinder

[Flip]

On 7/1/2024 at 11:09 PM, Flip said:

Despicable Me 4 (T-2)

 

28 showtimes/620 tix sold (+188) 

 

1.2x Inside Out 2 Thursday (T-2) [15.6m] 

.498x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-2) [25.17m]
 

better day. Tomorrow it should sell at least 430 tickets, anything below 400 is disappointing, and anything above 475 is very good 

Despicable Me 4 (T-1)

 

34 showtimes/970 tix sold (+350) 

 

1.43x Inside Out 2 Thursday (T-1)[18.59m] 

.505x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-1) [25.53m]

 

it barely grew against Inside Out 2 Friday, when it should’ve done a fair amount better. Walkups should be better tomorrow given that more schools are out.

 

prediction: 27-28m

Edited July 3 by Flip

[Flip]

MaXXXine (T-3) Friday Opening Day

 

11 showtimes/84 tix sold

 

1.15x Watchers {thurs} (T-3) [1.15m]

.19x DM4 OD (T-3) [???]
.25x A Quiet Place D1 {thurs} (T-3)[1.73m*]
 

*not sure what the pure previews number was. 
a fair batch of shows just got added so there is a lot of room to grow if the demand is there. 

[Flip]

On 7/1/2024 at 7:10 PM, Flip said:

Longlegs (T-10)

 

4 showtimes/99 tickets sold (+21)

 

more shows still need to be added. Very close to Watchers T-1

Longlegs (T-9)

 

4 showtimes/132 tickets sold (+33)

 

Really strong day. Should pass Watchers (T-0) tomorrow, but if it will go higher it’s dependent on more showtimes being added

[crazymoviekid]

23 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Despicable Me 4:

 

Wednesday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 138 Tickets

Theater 2: 196 Tickets

 

IO2 (Fri): $24.98M

IO2 (Thrs): $26.80M

KFP4: $35.55M

Wish: $15.30M

Paw Patrol 2: $11.18M

Mario: $17.00M

PiB2: $38.17M

Minions 2 (Fri): $20.80M

Minions 2 (Thrs): $17.18M

 

All comps went up. Feeling a lot more confident. Closer to $25M

Despicable Me 4

 

Wednesday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 232 Tickets

Theater 2: 370 Tickets

 

IO2 (Fri): $26.98M

IO2 (Thrs): $39.73M

KFP4: $39.41M

Wish: $18.43M

Paw Patrol 2: $13.75M

Mario: $19.91M

PiB2: $53.52M

Minions 2 (Fri): $18.41M

Minions 2 (Thrs): $17.17M

 

Most comps went up. Believe in the walk-ups. $25M+

[crazymoviekid]

MaXXXine:

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 18 Tickets

Theater 2: 17 Tickets

 

AQP:DO: $9.02M

FNAF: $1.60M

Saw X: $6.73M

Insidious 5: $11.52M

The Blackening: $3.08M

Pearl: $8.04M

Nope: $4.11M

 

WIDE variety, but I think $3M-$4M for now.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-2) - 95075/1248667 1520952.78 6923 shows +28142

Midnight Shows - 1275/13946 28608.23 77 shows +359

 

It did hit the benchmark I expected earlier today(95k). Very good day as expected. Tomorrow I expect it to hit 150k ish.  

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-1) - 161743/1295193 2523640.11 7361 shows +66668

Midnight Shows Final - 2901/14724 61843.65 84 shows +1626

 

It went well above my expectations. Now I have to bump my OD prediction to 30m ish range.  

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Despicable Me 4 (Monday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Wednesday: 374/3,170 (11.8% sold)

6 IMAX showings: 127/2,328 (5.5% sold)

1 3D showing: 19/78 (24.4% sold)

11 2D showings: 228/764 (29.8% sold)

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2 (previews): $16.54 mil

Inside Out 2 (Friday): $24.06 mil

Average: $20.3 mil

Despicable Me 4 (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Wednesday: 802/3,461 (23.2% sold) [+428]

6 IMAX showings: 300/2,328 (12.9% sold)

1 3D showing: 34/78 (43.6% sold)

16 2D showings: 468/1,055 (44.4% sold)

 

Comps:

Inside Out 2 (Friday): $28.06 mil

Edited July 3 by Rorschach

[Rorschach]

MaXXXine (Tuesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday: 

6 2D showings: 10/564 (1.8% sold) [+10]

 

Comps: 

Quiet Place (Friday): $1.47 mil

Watchers (Friday): $1.19 mil

Strangers Chp. 1 (Friday): $1.05 mil

Average: $1.24 mil

 

Showtimes weren't available here until yesterday so that accounts for the current low total. Checked last night and there were zero tickets sold, hence why I didn't bother reporting it. Hoping tomorrow will provide more accurate numbers.

[Relevation]

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0)

07/03/24

Despicable Me 4 - 717 tickets sold

Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot - 55 tickets sold

 

COMPS:

Despicable Me 4

2.10x of Bob Marley: One Love ($29.44M)

2.37x of Inside Out 2 ($30.86M)

6.83x of Kung Fu Panda 4 ($25.95M)

AVERAGE: $28.75M

 

Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot

1.53x of Cabrini ($764K)

4.58x of The Book of Clarence ($1.31M)

AVERAGE: $1.04M

 

Despicable Me 4 went, for lack of a better term, absolutely bananas at my market. Far and away the biggest movie I've ever tracked, selling 42% more tickets than every other kids movie I've tracked combined. Comps I have are pointing to an OD well in excess of $28M+, and I think it could be going even higher. $30M+ OD and a 5-day opening frame of $135-145M. Abject terror when I realized that Sound of Hope was doing WED previews, as my midnight preview track went well after hours. Movie appears to have done fine, probably eyeing like $1M WED (if Angel Studios even reports it lol) and a 5-day of what, $15M?

 

(ps: anyone notice the cute Minion seat blockers on all Fandango showings of DM4?)

 

[emoviefan]

It's always fun to just follow a movie or movies solely as a Box Office Nerd because I checked out on the DM/Minion franchise a long time ago and have no investment in it/them other than being good for the continued health of the marketplace.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Despicable Me 4 MTC1 Wednesday(T-1) - 161743/1295193 2523640.11 7361 shows +66668

Midnight Shows Final - 2901/14724 61843.65 84 shows +1626

 

It went well above my expectations. Now I have to bump my OD prediction to 30m ish range.  

 

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

TWO THEATER MN PRESALES TRACK (T-1/0)

07/03/24

 

Despicable Me 4 went, for lack of a better term, absolutely bananas at my market. Far and away the biggest movie I've ever tracked, selling 42% more tickets than every other kids movie I've tracked combined.

 

 

A targeted to kids animation movie* blew the fuck up at T-1?!?

* and one part of the DM/Minions franchise at that

 

 

I kid I kid.

 

But, like, and I want to make sure I word this right, this movie surging above its tracking trends at the last moment, presuming it is as these trackers suggest, was always a possibility.  One of the things that makes tracking this sort of film challenging as one can never be quite sure just how high the last last minute surge will be. 

 

Even saw this from earlier today when keyser was somewhat down on DM4 earlier in the track before updated (for today) numbers came in.

 

This can kinda get masked on lower ended animation films (the percentage diff between 3.5m and 4m is the same as 35m and 40m, but the latter sure as hell feels a lot bigger).  But can really see it in force with things like IO2 a couple of weeks ago and, perhaps, DM4 now.

 

Still have T-0 numbers to see if it can keep up the momentum/keep the momentum going that these trackers are seeing. Should be fun to see just where it lands when all is said and done.

Edited July 3 by Porthos

[todos]

.

Edited July 3 by todos

[Porthos]

On 7/2/2024 at 1:20 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27693	33622	5929	17.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

84

 

T-24 Comp

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	69.07		253	8584		0/329	32332/40916	20.98%		21117	28.08%		24.87m
L&T	142.49		4161	4161		0/228	27442/31603	13.17%		16962	34.95%		41.32m
BP2	103.87		89	5708		1/294	31311/37019	15.42%		16800	35.29%		29.08m
AM3	159.47		93	3718		0/235	28808/32526	11.43%		10475	56.60%		27.91m
GOTG3	212.13		107	2795		0/206	26876/29671	9.42%		10750	55.15%		37.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1319/12925  [10.21% sold]
Matinee:    357/4469  [7.99% | 6.02% of all tickets sold]
3D:             660/6801  [9.70% | 11.13% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3041/11532  [26.37% | 51.29% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        75 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    80 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

====

 

Pace looks to be picking up slightly.

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	27626	33622	5996	17.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

67

 

T-23 Comp

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	68.30		195	8779		0/329	32131/40910	21.46%		21117	28.39%		24.59m
L&T	126.93		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	35.35%		36.81m
BP2	103.20		102	5810		1/294	31209/37019	15.69%		16800	35.69%		28.90m
AM3	155.94		127	3845		0/235	28711/32556	11.81%		10475	57.24%		27.29m
GOTG3	206.12		114	2909		0/206	26760/29669	9.80%		10750	55.78%		36.07m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1329/12925  [10.28% sold]
Matinee:    363/4469  [8.12% | 6.05% of all tickets sold]
3D:              667/6801  [9.81% | 11.12% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        3058/11532  [26.52% | 51.00% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        61 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    64 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, T-2 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 700

New Sales: 194

Growth: 38%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 61

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.5

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 113/13

Early Afternoon: 136/13

Late Afternoon: 143/13

Early Evening: 275/12

Late Evening: 33/11

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 106/17

Regular 3D: 39/11

Dolby: 442/17

Dolby 3D: 22/3

IMAX: 81/10

4DX: 10/3

 

Comps

3.111x Inside Out 2 for $40.4M

2.108x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $10.1M

7.071x GB:FE for $26.2M

5.822x Wonka for $20.6M

36.842x IF for $64.5M

Average: $32.4M

 

This was the big growth day I was waiting for 

 It's made up for what it's slipped in recent days against comps.

 

Despicable Me 4, T-1 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 1567

New Sales: 867

Growth: 124%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 61

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.5

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 302/13

Early Afternoon: 360/13

Late Afternoon: 331/13

Early Evening: 489/12

Late Evening: 85/11

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 410/17

Regular 3D: 104/11

Dolby: 823/17

Dolby 3D: 58/3

IMAX: 141/10

4DX: 31/3

 

Comps

4.281x Inside Out 2 for $55.7M

3.722x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $17.9M

10.588x GB:FE for $39.2M

8.954x Wonka for $31.3M

58.223x IF for $99.2M

Average: $41.9M

 

That's one heck of a final day. I feel stupid for doubting the walk ups when it stalled over the weekend.

 

I've been busy this week, so I haven't followed this thread if this trend is playing out elsewhere.

 

It's hard to pin point this number. Even something like Inside Out 2 doesn't make a good comp, as schools were open here when that opened.

 

As a potential benchmark of similar size, for just my local theatre, Super Mario Bros had higher sales on the T-1, and that's just with evening showings. Even with some of the crazy numbers in the comps, I'd say that it's unlikely that DM4 hits a number much bigger than that.

[Unfitclock]

Just out of curiosity how does it look for fly me to the moon for anybody that’s looking to me it looks like the early access is decent but next weekend looks really strong plus the quorum numbers on it seem to be pretty good too

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/1/2024 at 5:21 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-3 Days

 

Wednesday - 5774/136126 (555 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 - $29M

Inside Out 2 - $21M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $33M (adjusted for over indexing ~$30M)

Despicable Me 4 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

 

Wednesday - 16699/139710 (574 showings)

 

Comps

Minions 2 - $27M

Inside Out 2 - $28M

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $41M (adjusted for over indexing ~$36M)