The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[emoviefan]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows(8/7) -  17143/44471 249714.33 365 shows

Previews(T-7) - 22865/199763 314980.46 1646 shows

 

Just MTC1 and that too just previews/early shows. I think daily pace for previews alone is promising at this point. if you add early shows to it its even more impressive.  if it can accelerate I am expecting 6-7m including early shows. Plus Friday was already well ahead. This is going for a big opening weekend. I would be surprised by anything less than 45m at this point. 

Will next week be the first time in movie history a husband and wife battle for the number one spot? Gonna be fun.

[filmlover]

Trap's reviews aren't great but definitely not "so bad we're embarrassed to show it to critics pre-release" levels either.

[VanillaSkies]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Trap's reviews aren't great but definitely not "so bad we're embarrassed to show it to critics pre-release" levels either.

Yeah, it’s currently trending towards fresh, though it’s only at 25 reviews so anything can happen. 
 

Odd though, because the lack of any reviews did kind of affect the momentum this week I think. Hopefully it can regain some going into the weekend.

[keysersoze123]

Its interesting that borderlands is getting the Imax/PLF shows (its sharing some with Deadpool) while Blake is bossing around without any Imax/PLF 🙂

[keysersoze123]

Updated with MTC2 data and its even worse. Its skewing MTC1 as well. 

[Flip]

On 7/30/2024 at 9:34 PM, Flip said:

Alien: Romulus (T-16) 2 days of sales 

 

10 showtimes/81 tix sold (+37)

 

.55x A Quiet Place D1 (T-16) [3.74m]

1.59x Trap* (T-16) [???]

 

after a bad start sales are finally picking up + distributors are putting a lot of faith in it.

 

*this was Trap’s first day

Alien: Romulus (T-14) 2 days of sales 

 

10 showtimes/85 tix sold (+4)

 

missed A Quiet Place D1 (T-14) []

missed Trap* (T-14) [???]

1.09x Longlegs (T-14) [3.27m]

 

something weird happened where it decreased yesterday. I don’t really see the 6m+ others are, if I had to guess I think previews should end up around 5m

[Flopped]

1 hour ago, emoviefan said:

Will next week be the first time in movie history a husband and wife battle for the number one spot? 

 

Nope! 

 

July 13-15, 1990 

 

1	1	Die Hard 2	$14,512,301	-33.3%	2,433	-74	$5,964	$60,693,920	2	Twentieth Century Fox
2	-	Ghost	$12,191,540	-	1,101	-	$11,073	$12,191,540	1	Paramount Pictures

 

 

July 20-22, 1990 

 

1	2	Ghost	$12,523,295	+2.7%	1,400	+299	$8,945	$32,291,246	2	Paramount Pictures
2	1	Die Hard 2	$10,019,244	-31%	2,325	-108	$4,309	$77,198,498	3	Twentieth Century Fox

[SaltyPistola]

6 hours ago, Eric is Trapped said:

Don’t know if this is just me playing Devil’s advocate, but Furiosa also had great presales before stumbling at the endgame. Alien is of course a far bigger franchise and has a bigger fandom, but it’s also a niche sci-fi 80s franchise from a very fan-driven franchise. And while Furiosa was fresh off Fury Road, Alien hasn’t had a huge crowd pleasing hit since Aliens. And that movie is how old now?

 

I hope for the best of course. It looks good! I’m excited for it. Just feel it’s important to bring that up with some of the 60+ predictions I’m seeing.

I'd say Furiosa isn't even in the same ballpark tbh. We haven't had an actual Alien movie in 20 years, and even those "bad" movies in the 90s managed to make at least 150 Million a piece, very much in line with the scream movies of the time that are considered massive successes. I think the tracking shows a significant interest, I think if the reviews are good or even okay this thing will explode. 

[Flip]

On 7/30/2024 at 11:01 PM, Flip said:

It Ends With Us Previews (T-9) two days of sales

 

8 showtimes/123 tickets sold (+59)

 

1.02x Trap Previews (T-9) [???]

.60x AQP D1 Previews (T-9) [4.08m]

1.03x Bad Boys 4 (T-9) [6.03m]
3.62x The Watchers (T-9) [3.62m]
 

Throwing everything at the wall right now, but pace is starting to pick up (even if it’s still soundly below other markets)

It Ends With Us Previews (T-7) two days of sales

 

9 showtimes/179 tickets sold (+56)

 

1.08x Trap Previews (T-7) [???]

.77x AQP D1 Previews (T-7) [5.24m]

1.36x Bad Boys 4 (T-7) [7.96m]
3.65x The Watchers (T-7) [3.65m]

[Geo1500]

7 hours ago, AniNate said:

Alien's gotten a strong homestretch push, and the trailer that's been attached to the big blockbusters the past month is pretty effective

 

 

 

This. It came on when I was watching D&W and it got strong reaction out of these in the theater 

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

The Forge T-22: 16.44% Awareness, 40.64% Interest

Flight Risk T-78: 26.86% Awareness, 47.44% Interest

Wicked T-113: 43.08% Awareness, 48.7% Interest

 

Harold and the Purple Crayon T-1: 31.28% Awareness, 36.56% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 33% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Interest: 50% chance of 20M

 

Trap T-1: 37.17% Awareness, 54.28% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 44% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 81% chance of 20M

Horror Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M

 

Borderlands T-8: 39.38% Awareness, 46.5% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 67% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 55% chance of 10M

 

Cuckoo T-8: 21.24% Awareness, 44.66% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 37% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 45% chance of 10M

 

It Ends with Us T-8: 29.2% Awareness, 44.61% Interest

Final Awareness: 19% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M

Low Interest: 34% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M

 

The Front Room T-36: 21.44% Awareness, 41.14% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 53% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 61% chance of 10M

T-30 Interest: 59% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 67% chance of 10M

 

White Bird T-64: 14.28% Awareness, 38.8% Interest

T-60 Awareness: 43% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 23% chance of 10M

T-60 Interest: 35% chance of 10M

Low Interest: 19% chance of 10M

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Rorschach]

On 8/1/2024 at 12:14 AM, Rorschach said:

Trap (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

6 Thursday showings: 46/456 (10.1% sold) [+15]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $2.19M

Quiet Place: $3.26M

Longlegs: $2.12M

Avg: $2.52M

 

11 Friday showings: 78/845 (9.2% sold) [+43]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $9.28M

Quiet Place: $9.22M

Longlegs: $4.88M

Avg: $7.79M

 

Thurs + Fri: 124/1,301 (9.5% sold) [+58]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $9.73M

Quiet Place: $12.2M

Longlegs: $7.01M

Avg: $9.65M

Trap (Thursday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

11 Friday showings: 112/845 (13.3% sold) [+34]

 

Comps:

The Watchers: $6.66M

Quiet Place: $9.47M

Longlegs: $4.32M

Avg: $6.82M

[Rorschach]

On 8/1/2024 at 12:26 AM, Rorschach said:

Harold and the Purple Crayon (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

4 Thursday showings: 39/340 (3.5% sold) [+27]

 

Comps:

IF: $1.24M

Garfield: $1.88M

Avg: $1.56M

 

6 Friday showings: 13/510 (2.4% sold) [+1]

 

Thurs + Fri: 52/850 (2.8% sold) [+28]

 

Comps: 

IF: $3.15M

Garfield: $4.86M

Avg: $4.01M

 

 

Lmao that Thursday to Friday ratio is something else.

Harold and the Purple Crayon (Thursday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

6 Friday showings: 31/510 (6.1% sold) [+18]

 

Comps: 

IF: $1.42M

Garfield: $1.9M

Avg: $1.66M

[CIDMoosa]

5 hours ago, Flopped said:

 

Nope! 

 

July 13-15, 1990 

 

1	1	Die Hard 2	$14,512,301	-33.3%	2,433	-74	$5,964	$60,693,920	2	Twentieth Century Fox
2	-	Ghost	$12,191,540	-	1,101	-	$11,073	$12,191,540	1	Paramount Pictures

 

 

July 20-22, 1990 

 

1	2	Ghost	$12,523,295	+2.7%	1,400	+299	$8,945	$32,291,246	2	Paramount Pictures
2	1	Die Hard 2	$10,019,244	-31%	2,325	-108	$4,309	$77,198,498	3	Twentieth Century Fox

There must be more too.

[Firepower]

7 hours ago, SaltyPistola said:

We haven't had an actual Alien movie in 20 years

Alien: Covenant came out 7 years ago.

[jeffthehat]

20 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Indiana

Trap T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
834	8510	84

TC = 26, pulled 11AM EST

Comps

0.26x Twisters T-0 = $2.2m

0.71x Longlegs T-0 = $2.2m

0.54x AQP D1 T-0 = $3.7m

 

AVG = $2.67m

 

Average has hovered in the $2.5m-$3m range. Guessing it finishes there 

Indiana Lite

Trap Fri T-0

Sales	Seats	Shows
666	6850	58

TC = 10, pulled 9AM EST

Comps

0.18x Twisters Fri T-0 = $4.0m

0.57x Longlegs Fri T-0 = $4.0m

0.36x AQP D1 Fri T-0 = $5.7m

 

AVG = $4.55m

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
It Ends With Us	T-7	Jax	5	23	46	270	2,608	10.35%
		Phx	6	25	20	116	2,715	4.27%
		Ral	7	24	33	368	1,842	19.98%
	Total		18	72	99	754	7,165	10.52%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-6	Jax	3	5	16	158	499	31.66%
		Phx	3	3	15	93	306	30.39%
		Ral	3	4	15	130	338	38.46%
	Total		9	12	46	381	1,143	33.33%

 

It Ends With Us (Total) T-7 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Total) - 4.47x (10.52m)

 - Sound of Freedom (OD) - .781x (4.06m)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - 2.1x (3.87m)

 - Elvis (Total) - 2.615x (7.87m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .955x (4.81m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.254x (7.4m)

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Alien Romulus	T-13	Jax	5	38	207	207	6,621	3.13%
		Phx	6	28	189	189	5,645	3.35%
		Ral	8	39	143	143	5,541	2.58%
	Total		19	105	539	539	17,807	3.03%
Borderlands	T-6	Jax	5	30	82	82	4,332	1.89%
		Phx	7	30	66	66	4,755	1.39%
		Ral	8	25	48	48	2,213	2.17%
	Total		20	85	196	196	11,300	1.73%
Cuckoo	T-6	Jax	4	6	13	13	429	3.03%
		Phx	6	12	13	13	1,056	1.23%
		Ral	3	5	15	15	264	5.68%
	Total		13	23	41	41	1,749	2.34%
It Ends With Us	T-6	Jax	5	23	41	301	2,608	11.54%
		Phx	6	34	45	161	4,254	3.78%
		Ral	7	24	47	415	1,842	22.53%
	Total		18	81	133	877	8,704	10.08%
It Ends With Us (EA)	T-5	Jax	3	6	49	207	635	32.60%
		Phx	3	3	21	114	306	37.25%
		Ral	3	4	4	134	338	39.64%
	Total		9	13	74	455	1,279	35.57%

 

Was planning on doing a 1 hr update yesterday but ended up working really late and missing it.  Moving on though!

 

It Ends With Us (Total) T-6 adjusted comps

 - Crawdads (Total) - 4.59x (10.81m)

 - Sound of Freedom (OD) - .848x (4.41m)

 - Downton Abbey (Total) - 2.18x (4.02m)

 - Elvis (Total) - 2.915x (8.77m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 1.02x (5.13m)

 - Indiana Jones - 1.336x (7.89m)

 

Borderlands T-6 adjusted comps

 - Uncharted - .369x (1.4m)

 - Free Guy - .966x (2.21m)

 - Fall Guy (Total) - .787x (2.48m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .455x (2.14m)

 - Furiosa - .549x (1.92m)

 

Cuckoo T-6 adjusted comps

 - Men - 1.52x (658k)

 - Candyman - .432x (730k)

 - First Omen - 1.864x (1.13m)

 - Talk to Me - .759x (945k)

 - Abigail - 1.025x (861k)

 - The Strangers - .539x (544k)

 

Alien Romulus T-13 adjusted comps

 - Scream VI - .82x (4.96m)

 - Nope - 1.54x (10.09m)

 - Halloween Ends - 2.182x (12.06m)

[keysersoze123]

On 7/30/2024 at 11:27 AM, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC2

Early Shows - 3810/12876 50484.53 136 shows

Previews - 13004/111458 166929.48 1043 shows

It ends with us MTC2

Early shows - 8235/19933 109705.79 210 shows

Previews(T-7) - 20341/143963 259646.35 1329 shows

 

This is as of late night yesterday. Its MTC2 numbers  are even more impressive. That shows MTC1 ratio would be way less than norm.