The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

TFOne did go ahead of TWR in Thursday sales finally at Disney Springs. 344 for the day so far right before first showtime, compared to 268 sales for Wild Robot for next Thursday.

 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by AniNate

[Flopped]

57 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

The Substance

 

T-0

 

Thursday: 886 Seats Sold (53% Increase From Last Time)

From 12 Theaters

 

Taken as of 4:00PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Had the theater count been 16 (the maximum amount of theaters I track) this could've sold over 1,000 seats across all of them, but this is still a pretty damn good final day. 

 

I'd put a weekend projection anywhere between $3M and even as high $5M. Always be aware that this could be front-loaded amongst the arthouse horror crowd, but now I feel pretty confident (especially based on this over 50% jump from yesterday) that this movie is going to comfortably beat expectations. 

 

For a movie that I thought was gonna play by the "open in 4 theaters in its first weekend and never reaches 1,000 theaters" game, this is more like it!

 

Interesting read https://www.indiewire.com/news/box-office/why-is-the-substance-opening-in-nearly-2000-theaters-1235048984/

[filmlover]

I feel like one of this month's animated movies definitely would've opened in mid-October if they had a clue that the movie that was touted as the anchor for the entire fall box office season for the longest time would end up being as shrugged off as it's looking like it might end up.

[WebSurfer]

8 minutes ago, AniNate said:

TFOne did go ahead of TWR in Thursday sales finally at Disney Springs. 344 for the day so far right before first showtime, compared to 268 sales for Wild Robot for next Thursday.

 

 

Wonder what it’ll be like the week TWR releases.

[Ryan C]

On 9/18/2024 at 12:14 AM, Ryan C said:

 

Transformers One

 

T-1 and T-2

 

Wednesday, September 18 - Fan Event Screenings: 979 Seats Sold (54.4% Increase From Last Time)

Thursday, September 19 - Traditional Thursday Previews: 658 Seats Sold (43.9% Increase From Last Time)

= 1,637 Seats Sold (50% Increase From Last Time Without Saturday EA Showings)

 

Taken as of 12:10AM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: I'm seeing signs of potential strong walk-up business and the Fan Event showings are doing pretty good right now, but Thursday alone isn't showing that many great signs. 

 

I still stand by this being a very walk-up heavy movie over the weekend, but hopefully things improve within the next two days. 

If at least 1,000 seats aren't sold by Thursday when the first preview showings start, then I'll be legitmately concerned. 

 

Transformers One

 

T-0

 

Thursday: 977 Seats Sold (48% Increase From Last Time)

From 16 Theaters

 

Taken as of 5:05PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Just missed out on selling over 1,000 tickets and though I'm sure it will as the night progresses, this does call to be concerned.

 

There are signs of walk-up business, but they aren't strong enough to sense some kind of breakout performance with this one.   I'd probably go with $2.5M-$3M in actual Thursday previews (hopefully it's doing much better in other markets). EA screenings should boost that number up as well, but it kind of plays into my fears when I said that all of the Transformers fans would show up for those EA screenings, but not the actual weekend.

 

I'm still holding out hope that walk-ups will be much stronger over the weekend  and that (despite The Wild Robot opening next weekend) good word-of-mouth will carry this one throughout October and into November, but we'll see. 

 

For now, this looks to be heading in the $30M range that Paramount has it at. Not fantastic, but if the budget is truly $75M, I guess they'll be fine in the long run. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Ryan C

[CheeseWizard]

Wait TFOne is in 3900 screens? I thought it was 3600 a few days ago.

[AniNate]

Like I said, the actual theater count can change from the estimate. 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

10 minutes ago, CheeseWizard said:

Wait TFOne is in 3900 screens? I thought it was 3600 a few days ago.

 

Was initially at 3700.

 

 

[wattage]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Was initially at 3700.

 

 

Here's hoping TWR gets an equivalent increase when we get actuals next week

Edited 2 hours ago by wattage
typo

[Krissykins]

6 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

[gojorager]

34 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

Borderlands get off the floor

[filmpalace]

On 9/18/2024 at 10:58 PM, filmpalace said:

Transformers One T-1

 

Tickets sold: 87 (+28)

Growth: 47%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 11

 

0,83x Speak No Evil (T-1) – 1,1M

 

The Fan Event screenings have really good sales! That, along with the screenings from last weekend are most likely reducing the demand for the Thursday showings. With how low these Thursday numbers are, I just hope it doesn’t mean the movie might be frontloaded. Either way, I’m hoping for a solid final day tomorrow.

Transformers One T-0

 

Tickets sold: 160 (+73)

Growth: 84%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 11

 

0,99x Speak No Evil (T-0) – 1,3M

 

Good final day boost here in Las Vegas. Because this has PLF, and with Las Vegas probably underindexing, I’m guessing ~2M previews for Thursday

[filmpalace]

On 9/18/2024 at 10:56 PM, filmpalace said:

The Substance T-1

 

Tickets sold: 29 (+8)

Growth: 38%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 6

 

0,28x Speak No Evil (T-1) - 360K

The Substance T-0

 

Tickets sold: 59 (+30)

Growth: 103%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 6

 

0,36x Speak No Evil (T-0) – 468K

 

Great final day growth. Would be awesome if this could open around 5M.

[filmpalace]

On 9/18/2024 at 10:55 PM, filmpalace said:

Never Let Go T-1

 

Tickets sold: 22 (+10)

Growth: 83%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 5

 

0,21x Speak No Evil (T-1) – 275K

Never Let Go T-0

 

Tickets sold: 39 (+17)

Growth: 77%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 5

 

0.24x Speak No Evil (T-0) – 312K

 

Solid final day growth, but still a very low number of ticket sales. Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if The Substance opens above this.

[filmpalace]

On 9/16/2024 at 11:04 PM, filmpalace said:

The Wild Robot T-10

 

Tickets sold: 34 (+8)

Growth (over the past 2 days): 30%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 12

 

Next update on T-7

The Wild Robot T-7

 

Tickets sold: 47 (+13)

Growth (over the past 3 days): 38%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 12

[filmpalace]

On 9/18/2024 at 10:59 PM, filmpalace said:

Joker: Folie a Deux T-15

 

Tickets sold: 221 (+5)

Growth: 2%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 21

Joker: Folie a Deux T-14

 

Tickets sold: 236 (+15)

Growth: 7%

Theaters: 2

Showtimes: 21

 

Solid growth today.

[Roxanne]

2 hours ago, Roxanne said:

Checking in on my local and following vafrow's advice to track the final day, TF One has gone from 2 sold at 8 AM to 13 at 5 PM. I'll check it again at the showtime proper in two hours to see what's up then.

 

No movement all day for The Substance or Never Let Go, which are at 1 and 0 sold respectively.

Final check-ins:

Transformers One: 19/283 (+46% since 5 PM), nearly all D-BOX seats (15 D-BOX to 4 normal). Bigger growth from 8 AM-5 PM than from 5 PM-7 PM, which is probably too granular to actually matter (people plan earlier in the day and buy tickets then, etc) but I still don't like the smell of it.
The Substance: 4/129 (+300% since 5 PM). Solid for an indie distributor in a market where, frankly, I'm very surprised we're even getting this. Looks like a group of 3 in addition to the previous solo, so I'm not sure this is evidence of wide interest, but still.

Never Let Go: 1/154 (+technically infinite % since 5 PM). Godspeed, lone soldier.

Edited 53 minutes ago by Roxanne

[excel1]

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Joker acceleraation incoming!